Discussion:
GHE from WV is 100,000K -- hillbilly
(too old to reply)
M***@kymhorsell.com
2018-06-08 08:36:37 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other
changes in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2
concentration would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about
1 deg. F). This is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well understood
by climate scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to 45% of the
way toward a doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008
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--
Causes of irregularities in trends of global mean surface temperature
since the late 19th century
A new study finds that global temperatures since 1891 can be
successfully estimated from a combination of natural and human forcing
factors, including internal climate variability, by using a multiple
regression technique. The relative contributions of the various
forcing factors to temperature changes vary in time, but most of the
warming since 1891 is found to be attributable to the net influence of
increasing greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. The only
serious disagreements between the reconstructions and observations
occur during the Second World War in the period 1944-1945, when
observed near-worldwide sea surface temperatures may be significantly
warm-biased. The generally high reconstruction accuracy shows that
known external and internal forcing factors explain all the main
variations in temperatures between 1891 and 2015. -- Science Advances

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<Loading Image...
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Image source: Think Progress and Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

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Paul Aubrin
2018-06-08 14:31:54 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
It has been calculated theoretically that, if there are no other changes
in the climate system, a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration
would cause less than 1 deg C of surface warming (about 1 deg. F). This
is NOT a controversial statement -- it is well understood by climate
scientists. (As of 2008, we were about 40% to 45% of the way toward a
doubling of atmospheric CO2.)
-- Dr Roy W. Spencer, "Global Warming 101", 2008
In a recent paper, B. Smirnov even determined that the actual raw
radiative effect of a doubling of CO2 is as low as 0.4±0.2K.

doi:10.1209/0295-5075/114/24005
B. Smirnov Joint Institute for High Temperatures - 13 Izhorskaya str.,
Moscow, 125412, Russia

Abstract
Average optical atmospheric parameters for the infrared spectrum range
are evaluated on the basis of the Earth energetic balance and parameters
of the standard atmosphere. The average optical thickness of the
atmosphere is u≈2.5 and this atmospheric emission is originated at
altitudes below 10 km. Variations of atmospheric radiative fluxes
towards the Earth and outward are calculated as a function of the
concentration of CO2 molecules for the regular model of molecular
spectrum. As a result of doubling of the CO2 concentration the change
of the global Earth temperature is (0.4±0.2) K if other atmospheric
parameters are conserved compared to the value (3.0±1.5) K under real
atmospheric conditions with the variation of the amount of atmospheric
water. An observed variation of the global Earth temperature during the
last century (0.8◦C) follows from an increase of the mass of atmospheric
water by 7% or by conversion of 1% of atmospheric water in aerosols.

"Introduction. –
The goal of this research is to evaluate
the optical thickness in the infrared spectrum range within
the framework of the standard atmosphere model [1] and
to find the contribution of changes in atmospheric car-
bon dioxide and atmospheric water to the global Earth
temperature."

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