Discussion:
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat plague
(too old to reply)
gordo
2018-08-05 18:07:09 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat 'plague': Xinhua

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Persistent drought in the remote northwestern
Chinese region of Inner Mongolia has caused a rat plague now affecting
more than 4 million hectares (9.8 million acres) of grassland, an area
the size of the Netherlands, the official Xinhua news agency said.

Rodents are a common problem throughout Inner Mongolia's huge and
sprawling prairies, and adapt relatively well to dry weather.

Citing the local agriculture department, Xinhua said late on Wednesday
that as much as 40 percent of Inner Mongolia's territory had been
affected by drought, causing more than 600 million yuan ($90.92
million) in economic losses.

Since mid-June, Inner Mongolia has seen 25 percent less rainfall and
is around 1 degree Celsius warmer than the long-term average for the
time of year, and nearly 35 million heads of livestock have already
been affected, Xinhua said.
https://www.firstpost.com/world/inner-mongolia-drought-causes-rat-plague-xinhua-4615441.html

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com
Wally W.
2018-08-06 01:19:36 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by gordo
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat 'plague': Xinhua
Climastrologists recycle some "setted science" of old:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spontaneous_generation
The theory of spontaneous generation held that living creatures could
arise from nonliving matter and that such processes were commonplace
and regular.
...
rats ... are bred ... by the sun's heat
JTEM is right
2018-08-06 03:57:34 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Wally W.
rats ... are bred ... by the sun's heat
Don't be stooooopid! Rat reproduction is
controlled by water. The more water, the less
rats breed. The less water, the more they
breed. If, God forbid, they start dropping
like flies from thirst the rat population
will EXPLODE, burying a society in rats.

This is science & stuff.





-- --

http://jtem.tumblr.com/post/176649906326
Byker
2018-08-06 15:28:35 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by gordo
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat 'plague': Xinhua
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Persistent drought in the remote northwestern
Chinese region of Inner Mongolia has caused a rat plague now affecting
more than 4 million hectares (9.8 million acres) of grassland, an area
the size of the Netherlands, the official Xinhua news agency said.
Rodents are a common problem throughout Inner Mongolia's huge and
sprawling prairies, and adapt relatively well to dry weather.
They could always eat them:






Catoni
2018-08-06 02:44:40 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by gordo
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat 'plague': Xinhua
Gordo and the communist Chinese press (the official Xinhua news agency) are so damned funny.... . ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha

And Gordo... if you can't figure it out... I'm damned sorry for you ....comrade...
Kym Horsell
2018-08-06 03:53:31 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by gordo
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat 'plague': Xinhua
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Persistent drought in the remote northwestern
Chinese region of Inner Mongolia has caused a rat plague now affecting
more than 4 million hectares (9.8 million acres) of grassland, an area
the size of the Netherlands, the official Xinhua news agency said.
Rodents are a common problem throughout Inner Mongolia's huge and
sprawling prairies, and adapt relatively well to dry weather.
Citing the local agriculture department, Xinhua said late on Wednesday
that as much as 40 percent of Inner Mongolia's territory had been
affected by drought, causing more than 600 million yuan ($90.92
million) in economic losses.
Since mid-June, Inner Mongolia has seen 25 percent less rainfall and
is around 1 degree Celsius warmer than the long-term average for the
time of year, and nearly 35 million heads of livestock have already
been affected, Xinhua said.
https://www.firstpost.com/world/inner-mongolia-drought-causes-rat-plague-xinhua-4615441.html
...


Now this is interesting.

I've done a project for some part of the SA govt (think it was Ag Dept via
some school over there) looking at mouse plause on the Adelaide Plains.

At the time they were one of the few states to keep reasonable tabs on how
mouse populations changed month by month over decades.

This was based on trapping data. (Whomever) put out a number of traps in
rural areas and counted up how many mice were caught over a month.

The project then tried to predict from rainfall and temperature data
how mouse populations were changing over time.

From the data we got a "percentage of traps that caught a mouse" month by month.

When the percentage hit 100 we were led to believe a plague was running.

From the data you could see plause only lasted a relatively short time. 2-3 months usually. And there were in 10-15 years of records only 2 of them to look at.

But we managed to tinker up a model that predicted "mouse numbers" (or a proxy thereof) fairly well.

It turned out the main problem was variable rainfall.

When the "rainy season" came along mouse numbers would always rise. But if the
rains fell back for a month and then resumed again there mouse numbers went
to "100% of traps".

It sounds like a similar thing is going on in Mongilia. Their "drought" has been on for 2 months. Before that we assume there was rain. It wasn't the
rain back in May so much but the drop in Jun that made the numbers spike
and had the little beasties foraging further and further.

In Australia/Adelaide Plains case we also noticed as AGW causes the region to
warm the precipitation is going down and plauge numbers are also declining.

But there is no doubt a complex interacion between temps and high-low-high
patterns of monthly rainfall that might still spark mouse/rat plagues into the future.
Wally W.
2018-08-06 04:05:44 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Kym Horsell
In Australia/Adelaide Plains case we also noticed as AGW causes the region to
warm the precipitation is going down and plauge numbers are also declining.
How did you distinguish AGW from normal variations in the local
climate?

One might infer from your not saying "climate change" that the climate
didn't permanently change and stayed within allowable variations for
the local climate. IOW: the climate didn't change due to the AGW you
(erroneously?) mentioned above.
JTEM is right
2018-08-06 03:54:44 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by gordo
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat 'plague': Xinhua
So when rats are dying of thirst they respond by
breeding like crazy?

This makes sense to you?






-- --

http://jtem.tumblr.com/post/176649906326
Catoni
2018-08-06 21:48:37 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by gordo
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat 'plague': Xinhua
Too bad for you that tree ring data shows the Mongolis drought to be well within the norml range of climate variability.

(Not to mention.... Most of Mongolia is burnt over rain shadow desert and semi arid areas. Perhaps you've heard of the "Gobi Desert".)

Science News
Tree rings tell tale of drought in Mongolia over the last 2,000 years
The data could help in predicting future dry spells
BY DAN GARISTO 10:26AM, MARCH 19, 2018
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/tree-rings-drought-mongolia-climate-change


A new analysis is shedding light on drought in Mongolia, both past and future.

By studying the rings of semifossilized trees, researchers constructed a climate history for the semiarid Asian nation spanning the last 2,060 years — going 1,000 years further back than previous studies.

It was suspected that a harsh drought from about 2000 to 2010 that killed tens of thousands of livestock was unprecedented in the region’s history and primarily the result of human-caused climate change. But the tree ring data show that the dry spell, while rare in its severity, was not outside the realm of natural climate variability, researchers report online March 14 in Science Advances.

“This is a part of the world where we don’t know about the past climate,” says Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, N.Y., who was not involved with the study. “Having this record is a great resource for trying to understand past droughts in the region.”

In recent years, many studies have sought to unsnarl the role of anthropogenic climate change from natural variability on extreme weather events (SN: 1/20/18, p. 6). Such work is necessary for more accurately predicting future climate trends and helping governments prepare for the most severe scenarios, says study coauthor Amy Hessl, a physical geographer at West Virginia University in Morgantown. This is especially true in countries like Mongolia that lack certain infrastructure, such as enough water reservoirs, to ease the impact of events like prolonged drought.

Hessl and her colleagues studied tree rings in hundreds of samples of Siberian pines, well-preserved by Mongolia’s naturally dry climate. A ring’s width indicates how much the tree grew in a year. In wet years, the rings are wider; in dry years, skinnier.

The recent dry spell was the severest in recorded history. But the rings showed that an even more severe drought took place around the year 800, long before anthropogenic climate change began.

Still, computer simulations suggest that about a third of the recent drought’s severity could have been caused by elevated temperatures linked to climate change, the researchers found. The finding is consistent with studies on how climate change has affected other recent droughts in South Africa and California.

Using computer simulations, Hessl and her colleagues conclude that droughts in coming decades may not be any worse than those seen in Mongolia’s past. The team predicts that as global temperatures rise over the next century, Mongolia will first become drier, then wetter. Increased heat initially will dry out the plains. But at a certain point, hot air holds more moisture, leading to increased precipitation.

Those climate patterns will likely guide how Mongolia develops, Hessl says, because they have in the past. In 2014, she and colleagues published a paper detailing how a 15-year period of unprecedented temperate and rainy conditions in 13th century Mongolia may have led to the rise of Genghis Khan
Byker
2018-08-06 22:11:55 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by Catoni
Post by gordo
Inner Mongolia drought causes rat 'plague': Xinhua
Too bad for you that tree ring data shows the Mongolis drought to be well
within the norml range of climate variability.
(Not to mention.... Most of Mongolia is burnt over rain shadow desert
and semi arid areas. Perhaps you've heard of the "Gobi Desert".)
Interesting feature about the Mongolian desert:


Loading...