Discussion:
a federal agency is still calling for urgent climate action
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M***@kymhorsell.com
2018-05-15 17:00:03 UTC
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<https://grist.org/article/look-a-federal-agency-is-pushing-for-urgent-climate-action/>

Look! A federal agency is pushing for urgent climate action.

Eric Holthaus
10 May 2018

It's well-understood at this point that the Trump Administration is no
friend to science-based governance. But there's one federal agency
bucking that trend.

The Bureau of Reclamation, a division of the Dept of Interior,
raised fresh alarm in a press release this week about the dire drought
in the Southwest.

"We need action and we need it now," said Trump appointee Brenda
Burman, who runs the bureau, in the release. "We can't afford to wait
for a crisis before we implement drought contingency plans."

Looking at the data that Burman's agency supplied, though, it's clear
that the crisis is already here. Runoff from the Rocky Mountains into
the Colorado River is expected to be just 42% of normal this
year, which would continue a 19-year dry spell that ranks as the
driest on record for the region. Such clear-eyed focus on the urgency
of climate action has been almost unheard of for a Trump-era official.

"Dating back to 2000, this current period is one of the worst drought
cycles over the past 1,200 plus years," the bureau's statement said.

It's worth emphasizing that last point: There's a megadrought
happening right now in the United States. Over the past decade,
according to the bureau's latest numbers, the risk of reservoirs
falling below critical levels has approximately tripled. And there's
"no indication the current low runoff and drought conditions will end
anytime soon," according to the agency. With this winter's dry
weather, the chances of the first official shortage on the Colorado
River in US history have risen to 52% in 2020.

The Bureau of Reclamation has responsibility for managing much of the
water of the western United States, and, so far, it looks like it's
taking that responsibility seriously - using weather and climate
forecasts as a primary guide.

As Grist recently reported, tensions are rising along the Colorado
River as water levels plummet. The river supplies 40 mn people
with drinking water, and also nurtures mns of acres of some of
the most productive farmland in the country. With booming populations
and climate change already strangling water supply, the outlook is
increasingly dire.

The way the laws governing the Colorado River are structured, Arizona
is first in line for significant cuts should conservation efforts fall
short. The state's water allotment from the Colorado River would be
cut by 20% starting in 2020, jeopardizing its economic
growth. Understandably, folks there are watching what Burman has to
say very closely.

...

--
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<Loading Image...>

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Erin Coughlan de Perez @CoughlanClimate 15 May 2018 15:44Z
Erin Coughlan de Perez Retweeted Eric Holthaus
Weather forecasts are excellent - the next frontier is that we are now
combining weather forecasts with vulnerability and exposure information to
forecast impact and know where it is most critical to take early action.
Erin Coughlan de Perez added,
Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus
Weather forecasts have quietly become extremely accurate - we can now
anticipate potential humanitarian crises and give organizations like the
Red Cross a chance at stopping them before they begin.

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JTEM is right
2018-05-15 17:50:47 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
You don't even have to read between the
lines...
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
"Dating back to 2000, this current period is one of the worst drought
cycles over the past 1,200 plus years," the bureau's statement said.
"One of the worst" means it's not unprecedented,
and a 1,200+ year time span takes us well before
the industrial revolution, so these droughts can
and do happen for reasons that have nothing to
do with mankind.

So we have the exact same results as seen often
in the past, but you're insisting that there's
got to be a different cause.

Why? How did you rule out a natural cause, like
the exact same natural causes for all the other
droughts?

How'd you rule them out?

As has been pointed out in so many threads before,
you jackasses simply look out your windows and
no matter what you see you shout "Global Warming!"





-- --

http://jtem.tumblr.com/post/173891250906
Chom Noamsky
2018-05-15 21:42:16 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by JTEM is right
You don't even have to read between the
lines...
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
"Dating back to 2000, this current period is one of the worst drought
cycles over the past 1,200 plus years," the bureau's statement said.
"One of the worst" means it's not unprecedented,
and a 1,200+ year time span takes us well before
the industrial revolution, so these droughts can
and do happen for reasons that have nothing to
do with mankind.
So we have the exact same results as seen often
in the past, but you're insisting that there's
got to be a different cause.
Why? How did you rule out a natural cause, like
the exact same natural causes for all the other
droughts?
How'd you rule them out?
As has been pointed out in so many threads before,
you jackasses simply look out your windows and
no matter what you see you shout "Global Warming!"
Call it Climate Derangement Syndrome.

They trot out what they believe are anomalous examples of weather and
climate linked to SUV farts, then fail to provide a testable hypothesis
for why they believe so. And when they do, generally the historical data
proves it ain't so anomalous. So if it wasn't anomalous back then, why
is it anomalous now? Well, just because we say so. Alternatively, the
anomalies didn't matter back then because there weren't billions of
people to consider.

The Merkin tornado count is always a good one:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html

The anomaly at present seems to be that tornado activity has dropped off
a cliff. Quite stunning really, the actual vetted count has been revised
down to a mere 66 so far this year. We're more than a third of the way
through the year and there have been fewer tornadoes than the
kangaroo-fucker has fingers and toes to count on.

But the rule is, whenever the anomaly doesn't support your
scaremongering brand of eco-activism, you never ever mention the anomaly.

Objective analysts interested in truth consider all the evidence, but
the Climate Deranged never want to talk about the anomalies that go the
other way, that show weather and climate becoming less severe. Don't
want the critics catching on that a warmer world might actually have
more benefits than drawbacks.

Basic meteorology informs one that decreasing the temperature gradient
between pole and equator should actually lead to a decrease in severe
weather, because temperature differential between adjacent air masses is
what causes storm activity. The more severe the differential, the more
severe the potential storm activity.

Considering that the warming has been asymmetrical -- greater at the
poles relative to equator -- in theory we should have *fewer* severe
weather events.

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