Discussion:
Jul 2018: SST ~+.46C #9/169: sat nighttime IR data
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M***@kymhorsell.com
2018-07-06 07:55:28 UTC
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The blog-o-sphere seems to be abuzz with news of imminent new Ice Ages
with many twitsperts pointing at a decline in global temps over the
past few days.

According to my processing of the sat IR data for the past month global
SST has declined from +.49C around 05 Jun to around +.44C by 05 Jul --
a mighty drop of .05C.

To put this in context, a moderate hurricane is often preceded by a
drop around .3C or more in 24 hrs and ocean storms of a size that
occurs weekly by .22-.25C.

The global SST for the last month is thus:

Date Av SST
(deg C rel ~1980s aka Hadley baseline)
05jun2018 0.489082
06jun2018 0.486906
07jun2018 0.492507
08jun2018 0.490662
09jun2018 0.493898
10jun2018 0.490976
11jun2018 0.486652
12jun2018 0.480729
13jun2018 0.480048
14jun2018 0.469351
15jun2018 0.470998
16jun2018 0.452276
17jun2018 0.452095
18jun2018 0.447688
19jun2018 0.458052
20jun2018 0.453794
21jun2018 0.453158
22jun2018 0.466687
23jun2018 0.459657
24jun2018 0.462847
25jun2018 0.462488
26jun2018 0.470557
27jun2018 0.470717
28jun2018 0.469359
29jun2018 0.470974
30jun2018 0.466358
01jul2018 0.475002
02jul2018 0.465432
03jul2018 0.450864
05jul2018 0.425832

avg last 2 wks: 0.462421
avg last 4 wks: 0.469694

TOP10 jul:
2016 0.6700
2015 0.6370
2014 0.5510
2017 0.5400
1998 0.5260
2009 0.5230
2010 0.5000
2013 0.4790
<-- Jun 2018: .46-.47 ~#9/169
2005 0.4630
2003 0.4350

More interestingly, developing Atlantic storms and potential small
cyclones are starting to leave their signature blips (temp drop of
~.25 in 24 hrs over 25,000 km2 == lot of heat transferred to atm via
WV) in the SST data for the US E coast and Caribbean:


Date GMex Fla EUS Carib
22jun2018 0.558892 1.35166 1.20085 0.602321
23jun2018 0.739076 1.41743 1.34183 0.542355
24jun2018 0.69808 1.42804 1.36872 0.448678
25jun2018 0.727897 1.28409 1.36313 0.345716
26jun2018 0.763243 1.31999 1.20765 0.289857
27jun2018 0.757981 1.28552 0.944493 0.305832
-.26 due ~07 Jul
28jun2018 0.717574 1.4028 1.01164 0.178419
29jun2018 0.67746 1.41429 1.05269 0.223306
30jun2018 0.610088 1.25876 1.0339 0.234213
01jul2018 0.792631 1.41201 1.11362 0.485888
02jul2018 0.792091 1.34477 1.32202 0.244818
-.24 due ~12 Jul
03jul2018 0.755489 1.37449 1.48751 0.175894
05jul2018 0.717244 1.19324 1.45968 0.253169


--
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k***@gmail.com
2018-07-06 18:54:57 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
.""However, over the fifteen years to 2016 the HadCRUT4v5 and Cowtan & Way GMST trends, of 0.138°C /century and 0.160°C /century respectively, are equally close to the 0.149°C /century ERAinterim trend; the GISTEMP and NOAAv4.0.1 trends are both above 0.17°C /century..."""
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