Discussion:
Aletta rapid intensification to cat4 -- new normal
(too old to reply)
M***@kymhorsell.com
2018-06-08 18:00:21 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
The old E coast SST for the past couple weeks:

Date SST off EUS Comment
(C rel ~1980s)
24may2018 1.543
25may2018 1.65119
26may2018 1.73563
27may2018 1.72069
28may2018 1.4969
^^ blip -.22C maybe storm due ~07 Jun; max prec ~4"
29may2018 1.4868
30may2018 1.39237
31may2018 1.56721
01jun2018 1.57519
02jun2018 2.00751
03jun2018 1.74628
^^ blip -.26C maybe strong storm due ~13 Jun; max prec ~8"
04jun2018 1.54383
^^ blip -.20C maybe storm due ~14 Jun
05jun2018 1.31432
^^^ blip -.23C maybe storm due ~15 Jun
06jun2018 1.2517
07jun2018 1.25482

The 3 sudden drops in SST (over region about 25,000 km2 upto 500 km off
the W coast) in succession seem to signify something more than the usual
incoming ocean storm.


-- snip --

<https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-06-08-hurricane-aletta-eastern-pacific>

Hurricane Aletta Rapidly Intensifies Into a Category 4 Hurricane, the
First Major Hurricane in the Western Hemisphere in 2018

RELATED:
* Why Some Hurricanes Rapidly Intensify, While Others Do Not
* Why Tropical Waves Are Important During Hurricane Season

Jonathan Erdman
08 Jun 2018 11:00 AM EDT

* Hurricane Aletta rapidly intensified to Category 4 intensity.
* Fortunately, Aletta is no direct threat to land.

Another area of low pressure to the east will likely also become a
named storm by this weekend.

The future of this second system is still somewhat uncertain regarding
potential land impact next week.

Some outer impacts such as high surf, rip currents, and bands of rain
may affect the coast, regardless.

Hurricane Aletta has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane,
the first major hurricane of the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane
season, while another area off the Mexican coast is expected to become
the second named storm by this weekend or early next week.

Aletta is centered just under 500 miles south of Mexico's Baja
Peninsula.

In just 24 hours, Aletta went from a tropical storm to a Category 4
hurricane, doubling its maximum sustained winds (70 mph to 140 mph) by
the 9 a.m. MDT Fri National Hurricane Center advisory.

Infrared satellite imagery now shows a distinct, 20-mile diameter eye,
with deep convection surrounding it.

Aletta may gain a bit more intensity before the combination of
increased wind shear and decreasing ocean heat content take their
typical toll.

Fortunately, a dome of high pressure aloft over northern Mexico is
steering Aletta away from the Mexican coast on a general
west-northwest track the next several days.

To the east of Aletta, another area of low pressure, a tropical wave,
is given high odds by the NHC to develop into at least a tropical
depression this weekend south of the Mexican Riviera.

If it eventually becomes a tropical storm, it would earn the name Bud.

...

--
Quantifying long-term changes in carbon stocks and forest structure
from Amazon forest degradation
Despite sustained declines in Amazon deforestation, forest degradation
from logging and fire continues to threaten carbon stocks, habitat,
and biodiversity. This study combined Landsat imagery and high-density
airborne lidar data to estimate changes in aboveground carbon
density. On average, degraded forests contained 45.1% of the carbon
stocks in intact forests, and differences persisted even after 15
years of regrowth. In comparison to logging, understory fires resulted
in the largest and longest-lasting differences. Forest carbon stocks
recovered faster than attributes of canopy structure that are critical
for biodiversity in tropical forests, including the abundance of tall
trees. -- Environmental Research Letters

Rising Seas Could Swell Arizona's Population
John Upton, Climate Central

Ban petrol cars by 2025, says Branson
Robert Lea, The Times

Ikea Sets New Climate Goals to Tackle Unsustainable Consumption
Anna Molin, Bloomberg

IKEA to use only renewable and recycled materials by 2030
Anna Ringstrom, Reuters

Women who refuse to have babies - to save the planet!
Antonia Hoyle, Daily Mail

Britain Has Gone Nine Days Without Wind Power
Rachel Morison, Bloomberg

Tiny shrimp could influence global climate changes
John Abraham, The Guardian

A bird's eye view of New Zealand's changing glaciers
Andrew Lorrey Andrew Mackintosh & Brian Anderson, The Conversation

Australia: Move to renewables a 'good thing', Nationals' David
Littleproud says
Katharine Murphy, Guardian

BoE to intensify climate change scrutiny of insurers
Huw Jones, Reuters

Facing a hat-trick of terrible UK energy policy decisions
Neil Collins, Financial Times

Court cases will expose Big Oil's hypocrisy on climate change
Dana Drugmand, Climate Home News

How Global Warming Is Shrinking Earth's Animals
Marta Zaraska, Scientific American

Australia: Climate change-related disaster relief is increasing demand
on Defence Dept, Senate hears
Ben Deacon, ABC News Australia

All at sea: Microsoft trials renewables-powered underwater Orkney data centre
Michael Holder, BusinessGreen

CO2 Levels Break Another Record, Exceeding 411 Parts Per Million
Yale Environment 360

Australia pipped by Switzerland for debt world title
ABC News, 09 Jun 2018
Australia may be rank outsiders to make the football World Cup final, but we
are global finalists when it comes to household debt.

[#idiocracy]
'Major communication breakdown' saw backpacker stuck down ravine for days
ABC News, 09 Jun 2018
A Korean backpacker's disappearance raises questions about how a 25-year-old
woman with friends and co-workers in Tully could go missing for 4 days
without anyone noticing.

Why do kindergarteners need a song about school shootings?
ABC News, 09 Jun 2018
A poem taped to the chalkboard in a US classroom and sung to the tune of
Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star teaches kindergarten kids what to do during a
school shooting.

Hurricane Aletta Rapidly Intensifies Into a Category 4 Hurricane, the First
Major Hurricane in the Western Hemisphere ...
The Weather Channel, 08 Jun 2018 15:46Z

Tesla Inc
NASDAQ: TSLA - 8 Jun., 12:00 pm GMT-4
320.74 USD +4.65 (1.47%) *** up 1.5% ***

Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd
TSE: KML - 8 Jun., 11:49 am GMT-4
16.05 CAD -0.020 (0.12%) down
6m low: 15.92 on 31 May 2018

TC PIPELINES LP Common Stock
TSE: TRP - 8 Jun., 11:48 am GMT-4
53.84 CAD -0.15 (0.27%) down

Peabody Energy Corporation
NYSE: BTU - 8 Jun., 11:58 am GMT-4
46.71 USD -0.17 (0.36%) down

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation
NYSE: COG - 8 Jun., 11:57 am GMT-4
23.29 USD -0.090 (0.38%) down

Royal Dutch Shell Plc Class A
ETR: R6C - 8 Jun., 5:35 pm GMT+2
29.70 EUR -0.13 (0.44%) down

BP plc (ADR)
NYSE: BP - 8 Jun., 12:00 pm GMT-4
46.86 USD -0.34 (0.72%) down

Gazprom PAO
MCX: GAZP - 8 Jun., 6:49 pm GMT+3
143.05 RUB -3.00 (2.05%) *** down 2.1% ***
Kym Horsell
2018-06-08 18:29:39 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
Date SST off EUS Comment
(C rel ~1980s)
24may2018 1.543
25may2018 1.65119
26may2018 1.73563
27may2018 1.72069
28may2018 1.4969
^^ blip -.22C maybe storm due ~07 Jun; max prec ~4"
29may2018 1.4868
30may2018 1.39237
31may2018 1.56721
01jun2018 1.57519
02jun2018 2.00751
03jun2018 1.74628
^^ blip -.26C maybe strong storm due ~13 Jun; max prec ~8"
04jun2018 1.54383
^^ blip -.20C maybe storm due ~14 Jun
05jun2018 1.31432
^^^ blip -.23C maybe storm due ~15 Jun
06jun2018 1.2517
07jun2018 1.25482
The 3 sudden drops in SST (over region about 25,000 km2 upto 500 km off
the W coast) in succession seem to signify something more than the usual
incoming ocean storm.
Just noticed another lil blip:

Gulf of Mexico SST:

28may2018 0.891012
29may2018 0.98094
30may2018 0.872508
31may2018 0.810324
01jun2018 0.886424
02jun2018 0.997497
03jun2018 1.14087
04jun2018 1.31774
05jun2018 1.32751
06jun2018 1.36436
07jun2018 1.08872
^^ blip ~.27C maybe storm due ~17 Jun max prec 7"


Starting to have a bit more confidence in the NN that spots these patterns.
While still ambiguous in many cases -- esp with storms come thick and fast
and step on each other -- they can extend the outlook from +5 days to +10 days
or more.

Also check all above against GFS:

<http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_925_wnd&loop=loopall&h
ours=>


Seems to show sig storm travelling ~SE across the NE ~12-14 Jun & a small
cyclone in G Mex ~15 Jun.

Neat-o when the (data) science works out.
Paul Aubrin
2018-06-09 19:25:37 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
- snip --
A shift in AMO may be in sight. It could be entering a cool phase.
Previous shifts occurred in 1902, 1926, 1971 and 1995.
A shift to the cool phase comes with diminished Atlantic hurricane
activity, increased US rainfall, decreased rains over India and Sahel,
shift in Atlantic fish stocks, and acceleration of sea level rise on the
North-eastern US coast.

https://judithcurry.com/2018/06/07/beyond-enso-new-signals-of-seasonal-to-
interannual-predictability/
Bret Cahill
2018-06-09 20:39:02 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
Date SST off EUS Comment
(C rel ~1980s)
24may2018 1.543
25may2018 1.65119
26may2018 1.73563
27may2018 1.72069
28may2018 1.4969
^^ blip -.22C maybe storm due ~07 Jun; max prec ~4"
29may2018 1.4868
30may2018 1.39237
31may2018 1.56721
01jun2018 1.57519
02jun2018 2.00751
03jun2018 1.74628
^^ blip -.26C maybe strong storm due ~13 Jun; max prec ~8"
04jun2018 1.54383
^^ blip -.20C maybe storm due ~14 Jun
05jun2018 1.31432
^^^ blip -.23C maybe storm due ~15 Jun
06jun2018 1.2517
07jun2018 1.25482
The 3 sudden drops in SST (over region about 25,000 km2 upto 500 km off
the W coast) in succession seem to signify something more than the usual
incoming ocean storm.
-- snip --
<https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-06-08-hurricane-aletta-eastern-pacific>
Hurricane Aletta Rapidly Intensifies Into a Category 4 Hurricane, the
First Major Hurricane in the Western Hemisphere in 2018
* Why Some Hurricanes Rapidly Intensify, While Others Do Not
* Why Tropical Waves Are Important During Hurricane Season
Jonathan Erdman
08 Jun 2018 11:00 AM EDT
* Hurricane Aletta rapidly intensified to Category 4 intensity.
This does not give surfers enough time to book flights.
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
* Fortunately, Aletta is no direct threat to land.
Optimum for surfing!
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
Another area of low pressure to the east will likely also become a
named storm by this weekend.
The future of this second system is still somewhat uncertain regarding
potential land impact next week.
Some outer impacts such as high surf, rip currents, and bands of rain
may affect the coast, regardless.
Hurricane Aletta has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 hurricane,
the first major hurricane of the 2018 Eastern Pacific hurricane
season, while another area off the Mexican coast is expected to become
the second named storm by this weekend or early next week.
Aletta is centered just under 500 miles south of Mexico's Baja
Peninsula.
In just 24 hours, Aletta went from a tropical storm to a Category 4
hurricane, doubling its maximum sustained winds (70 mph to 140 mph) by
the 9 a.m. MDT Fri National Hurricane Center advisory.
Infrared satellite imagery now shows a distinct, 20-mile diameter eye,
with deep convection surrounding it.
Aletta may gain a bit more intensity before the combination of
increased wind shear and decreasing ocean heat content take their
typical toll.
Fortunately, a dome of high pressure aloft over northern Mexico is
steering Aletta away from the Mexican coast on a general
west-northwest track the next several days.
To the east of Aletta, another area of low pressure, a tropical wave,
is given high odds by the NHC to develop into at least a tropical
depression this weekend south of the Mexican Riviera.
If it eventually becomes a tropical storm, it would earn the name Bud.
...
--
Quantifying long-term changes in carbon stocks and forest structure
from Amazon forest degradation
Despite sustained declines in Amazon deforestation, forest degradation
from logging and fire continues to threaten carbon stocks, habitat,
and biodiversity. This study combined Landsat imagery and high-density
airborne lidar data to estimate changes in aboveground carbon
density. On average, degraded forests contained 45.1% of the carbon
stocks in intact forests, and differences persisted even after 15
years of regrowth. In comparison to logging, understory fires resulted
in the largest and longest-lasting differences. Forest carbon stocks
recovered faster than attributes of canopy structure that are critical
for biodiversity in tropical forests, including the abundance of tall
trees. -- Environmental Research Letters
Rising Seas Could Swell Arizona's Population
John Upton, Climate Central
Ban petrol cars by 2025, says Branson
Robert Lea, The Times
Ikea Sets New Climate Goals to Tackle Unsustainable Consumption
Anna Molin, Bloomberg
IKEA to use only renewable and recycled materials by 2030
Anna Ringstrom, Reuters
Women who refuse to have babies - to save the planet!
Antonia Hoyle, Daily Mail
Britain Has Gone Nine Days Without Wind Power
Rachel Morison, Bloomberg
Tiny shrimp could influence global climate changes
John Abraham, The Guardian
A bird's eye view of New Zealand's changing glaciers
Andrew Lorrey Andrew Mackintosh & Brian Anderson, The Conversation
Australia: Move to renewables a 'good thing', Nationals' David
Littleproud says
Katharine Murphy, Guardian
BoE to intensify climate change scrutiny of insurers
Huw Jones, Reuters
Facing a hat-trick of terrible UK energy policy decisions
Neil Collins, Financial Times
Court cases will expose Big Oil's hypocrisy on climate change
Dana Drugmand, Climate Home News
How Global Warming Is Shrinking Earth's Animals
Marta Zaraska, Scientific American
Australia: Climate change-related disaster relief is increasing demand
on Defence Dept, Senate hears
Ben Deacon, ABC News Australia
All at sea: Microsoft trials renewables-powered underwater Orkney data centre
Michael Holder, BusinessGreen
CO2 Levels Break Another Record, Exceeding 411 Parts Per Million
Yale Environment 360
Australia pipped by Switzerland for debt world title
ABC News, 09 Jun 2018
Australia may be rank outsiders to make the football World Cup final, but we
are global finalists when it comes to household debt.
[#idiocracy]
'Major communication breakdown' saw backpacker stuck down ravine for days
ABC News, 09 Jun 2018
A Korean backpacker's disappearance raises questions about how a 25-year-old
woman with friends and co-workers in Tully could go missing for 4 days
without anyone noticing.
Why do kindergarteners need a song about school shootings?
ABC News, 09 Jun 2018
A poem taped to the chalkboard in a US classroom and sung to the tune of
Twinkle, Twinkle, Little Star teaches kindergarten kids what to do during a
school shooting.
Hurricane Aletta Rapidly Intensifies Into a Category 4 Hurricane, the First
Major Hurricane in the Western Hemisphere ...
The Weather Channel, 08 Jun 2018 15:46Z
Tesla Inc
NASDAQ: TSLA - 8 Jun., 12:00 pm GMT-4
320.74 USD +4.65 (1.47%) *** up 1.5% ***
Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd
TSE: KML - 8 Jun., 11:49 am GMT-4
16.05 CAD -0.020 (0.12%) down
6m low: 15.92 on 31 May 2018
TC PIPELINES LP Common Stock
TSE: TRP - 8 Jun., 11:48 am GMT-4
53.84 CAD -0.15 (0.27%) down
Peabody Energy Corporation
NYSE: BTU - 8 Jun., 11:58 am GMT-4
46.71 USD -0.17 (0.36%) down
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation
NYSE: COG - 8 Jun., 11:57 am GMT-4
23.29 USD -0.090 (0.38%) down
Royal Dutch Shell Plc Class A
ETR: R6C - 8 Jun., 5:35 pm GMT+2
29.70 EUR -0.13 (0.44%) down
BP plc (ADR)
NYSE: BP - 8 Jun., 12:00 pm GMT-4
46.86 USD -0.34 (0.72%) down
Gazprom PAO
MCX: GAZP - 8 Jun., 6:49 pm GMT+3
143.05 RUB -3.00 (2.05%) *** down 2.1% ***
R Kym Horsell
2018-06-09 21:59:23 UTC
Permalink
Raw Message
Bret Cahill <***@aol.com> wrote:
...
Post by Bret Cahill
Optimum for surfing!
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
Another area of low pressure to the east will likely also become a
named storm by this weekend.
Don't go now. Wait for BUD: It'll come right to Baja.

<http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_850_wnd&loop=loopall&hours=hr000hr012hr024hr036hr048hr060hr072hr084hr096hr108>

Another small cyclone still seems headed for Corpus Christi.

And there is still the system predicted to move up the E coast for
those needing connecting flights.
Post by Bret Cahill
...
--
Seasonal methane levels:

Month CH4 rel ann avg (ppb)
1 3.76
2 2.15
3 4.14
4 4.10
5 -1.27
6 -8.73
7 -16.71
8 -17.29
9 -4.13
10 9.23
11 12.97
12 12.10

Loading...