Discussion:
IPCC #SR15 released
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M***@kymhorsell.com
2018-10-08 01:20:03 UTC
Permalink
The latest IPCC report has just been released.

<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2018/oct/08/ipcc-climate-change-report-urgent-action-fossil-fuels-live>

Global warming must not exceed 1.5C, warns landmark UN report

The difference between +1.5 and +2.0C.
<https://twitter.com/borenbears/status/1049104036220297216/photo/1>

The report is public.

"It's a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this
is the moment and we must act now," says Debra Roberts, a co-chair of
the working group on impacts.

"This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I
hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency."

Read our full report from global environment editor, Jonathan Watts, here.
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report>

The authors of the landmark report by the UN Intergovtal Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) released on Mon say urgent and
unprecedented changes are needed to reach the target, which they say
is affordable and feasible although it lies at the most ambitions end
of the Paris agreementpledge to keep temperatures between 1.5C and 2C.

The half-degree difference could also prevent corals from being
completely eradicated and ease pressure on the Arctic, according to
the 1.5C study, which was launched in Incheon in South Korea after
approval at a final plenary of all 195 countries that saw delegates
hugging one another, with some in tears.

The current global state-of-play as described in the report:

* Human activities have caused about 1C of global warming since
pre-industrial times (expressed as a likely range of 0.8-1.2C).

* We are seeing the effects of this through increased extreme weather,
rising sea levels, coral bleaching and shrinking Arctic sea ice,
among other changes.

* We're likely to reach 1.5C warming sometime between 2030 and 2052 on
the current path. The effects of this warming would be materially
and noticeably different than today. It would be worse again at 2C
and higher temperature rises.

* To limit warming to 1.5C we need to cut global emissions by about
45% by 2030 compared with 2010 levels.

* Scientists say it could be done but it would require rapid action
now. It would mean significant changes in all sectors of society. We
would also need to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

...

--
Upcoming events:
08 Oct Q3 $bn disasters from NOAA
09 Oct AUS BoM ENSO outlook
~01 Nov Tesla Q3 earnings report (see V. ***@CleanTechnica
for profit estimates for the various divisions & 12c EPS;
he got the Q3 sales right :)

Al Jazeera Weather @AJEWeather 07 Oct 2018 15:37Z
Tropical Depression 14 has developed in the Caribbean and is expected to
intensity while moving into the Gulf of Mexico

Rising seas are swallowing Scotland's Stone Age ruins
Mother Nature Network, 07 Oct 2018 16:17Z
According to the lead author of the UCS report, Adam Markham, these locations,
combined with rising sea levels and resulting coastal erosion, have made ...

Cyclone brewing over Arabian Sea; Bay depression heralds NE ...
The Hindu BusinessLine, 07 Oct 2018 17:12Z
The Arabian Sea is only a puff away from hosting another tropical cyclone,
the third this year, after a depression over the East-Central basin
intensified into a ...

Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk 07 Oct 2018 17:45Z
Ukraine: According to the Government, people will not be able to return to
live in the Chernobyl area evacuated after the catastrophic 1986 nuclear
accident for another 24,000 years So Ukraine just launched its first solar
plant there buff.ly/2C0wrsI pic.twitter.com/QWaXwqimRv
<Loading Image...>

Interpol chief Meng Hongwei under investigation, China says
ABC News, 08 Oct 2018 7:00am
Chinese authorities say they are investigating Meng Hongwei, the head of the
global law enforcement organisation Interpol who has been missing since
Sept 25, for suspected violations of the law.

Cancer Council calls for Australian review amid Roundup cancer concerns
ABC/Four Corners, 8 Oct 2018 7:05am
Australia's peak cancer body is calling for an independent review into the
world's most popular weedkiller which has been linked to non-Hodgkin's lymphoma.

Tropical Storm Michael forms, forecast to hit Gulf Coast as a hurricane
this week
USA TODAY, 07 Oct 2018 18:49Z

Trust Me, I'm An Expert: Cyclone season approacheth, but this year ...
The Conversation AU, 07 Oct 2018 19:11Z
The Bureau of Meteorology's tropical cyclone outlook is out today. It's
predicting a weaker-than-normal tropical cyclone season this year but if one
hits - and it's ...

King tides are back, flooding South Florida streets
Sun Sentinel, 07 Oct 2018 19:40Z
For the third year in a row, the Sea Level Rise Solutions Project of South
Florida hosted the event to showcase how king tides flood streets in Hollywood.

<Loading Image...>
Sydney peak hour chaos as train delays and a major road crash cause havoc
ABC News, 08 Oct 2018
Mon morning's peak commute is hit by major delays caused by a "larger
than expected" number of Sydney Trains staff calling in sick, and a major
road crash leaving traffic queued up for kilometres.

Terry Hughes @ProfTerryHughes 07 Oct 2018 20:05Z
One degree of global average warming has already triggered 3 pan-tropical
coral bleaching events. There is no time to lose. smh.com.au/politics/feder...
nature.com/articles/s4158...

Vital road reopens after sustaining 'almost biblical' damage during
Cyclone Debbie
ABC Tropical North, 07 Oct 2018 21:32Z
Its destruction tripled commutes and split a school in two. Now, after 18
months after the category 4 storm, a critical roadway in central Queensland
is operational again.

Jamal Khashoggi: Saudi journalist 'murdered and dismembered' after going to
consulate to collect wedding papers
ABC News, 8 Oct 2018 11:37am
Turkish officials say they have concrete evidence missing Saudi journalist
Jamal Khashoggi was murdered, with a friend of the prominent writer saying
they think he may have been dismembered.
* A friend of Khashoggi says officials told him the journalist was dead
* Khashoggi was a prominent critic of Prince Mohammed bin Salman
* The Washington Post said it would be a "monstrous and unfathomable act" if
reports are true
A contributor to The Washington Post, Khashoggi has not been seen since
Tue last week, when he entered the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey,
to collect papers for his upcoming wedding.

Petition rejects decision to turn Syd Opera House into billboard
ABC News, Mon Oct 8 11:29:36 EST 2018
A petition with 140,000 signatures as rejected a NSW govt decision to
allow an ad for a horse race to be projected on the Opera House. Prem
Berejiklian made the decision after prev rejecting the idea after
lobbying from right wing broadcaster Allan Jones on behalf of the
racing industry. PM Scomo had also given the idea the tick of approval,
saying it was a "no brainer" to use the Opera House for advertising
describing it as "Ausralia's biggest billboard".

Opera House racing ad demanded by Alan Jones is `a good compromise',
Berejiklian says
* Premier says Everest Cup projection `the right thing for Sydney' as Scott
Morrison says decision a `no-brainer'
* The Alan Jones-Opera House row proves Sydney is in thrall to the gambling
industry
The Guardian, 07 Oct 2018 13.46 AEDT
Wally W.
2018-10-08 01:52:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
The latest IPCC report has just been released.
Is this like an operating system "update" from you-know-who?

IOW: the previous version was broken?

Wasn't **the** science "settled" before?

How many times (and in how many ways) do the "experts" say in this
version, "It's worse than we thorught?"
Unum
2018-10-08 03:59:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
The latest IPCC report has just been released.
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2018/oct/08/ipcc-climate-change-report-urgent-action-fossil-fuels-live>
Global warming must not exceed 1.5C, warns landmark UN report
The difference between +1.5 and +2.0C.
<https://twitter.com/borenbears/status/1049104036220297216/photo/1>
The report is public.
"It's a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this
is the moment and we must act now," says Debra Roberts, a co-chair of
the working group on impacts.
"This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I
hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency."
And yet we see denialist scum wish death to humanity here every day.
R Kym Horsell
2018-10-08 05:43:53 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
The latest IPCC report has just been released.
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2018/oct/08/ipcc-climate-change-report-urgent-action-fossil-fuels-live>
...
Post by Unum
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
"This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I
hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency."
And yet we see denialist scum wish death to humanity here every day.
Growing up is a nachl process. Growin up fer sentient indivijals or for
sentient species.
As sommon wuns says... you jus has to chip away alla parts dat don
look like tha thyar David staty an you en up with a staty of David.
Don worry bout all the bits dats gets left onna ground an dont make it
inna tha final masterpees -- dey played der part in der own lil way.
--
Sand fly distribution is limited to areas that have temperatures above
15.6oC for at least three months of the year. Below 10oC, sand flies
must enter a dormant state in order to survive winter, therefore
reducing the breeding population. In addition, sufficient moisture in
the environment is required because humidity is an important factor
for egg survival. However, peaks in rainfall are followed by
reductions in sand fly numbers as excess precipitation reduces the
amount of suitable diurnal resting sites for adult insects and limits
adult flight activity, as well as killing immature stages.
-- Phlebotomine sand flies, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
wow & flutter
2018-10-08 18:44:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
The latest IPCC report has just been released.
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2018/oct/08/ipcc-climate-change-report-urgent-action-fossil-fuels-live>
Global warming must not exceed 1.5C, warns landmark UN report
The difference between +1.5 and +2.0C.
<https://twitter.com/borenbears/status/1049104036220297216/photo/1>
The report is public.
"It's a line in the sand and what it says to our species is that this
is the moment and we must act now," says Debra Roberts, a co-chair of
the working group on impacts.
"This is the largest clarion bell from the science community and I
hope it mobilises people and dents the mood of complacency."
And yet we see denialist scum wish death to humanity here every day.
So does God. It's called human lifespan.
Wally W.
2018-10-08 11:47:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
* Scientists say it could be done but it would require rapid action
now.
Define "action."

Does it include genocide?

Will weasels say what they mean by "action?"
Paul Aubrin
2018-10-08 13:57:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Wally W.
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
* Scientists say it could be done but it would require rapid action
now.
Define "action."
Does it include genocide?
Will weasels say what they mean by "action?"
Action is to starve economies and population of energy, rapid is only a
few years. For the results have a look at what Nicolas Maduro succeeded
to do in Venezuela. Obesity there is a word of the past.

A reference for unbelievers:

http://www.el-nacional.com/noticias/mundo/expertos-onu-denuncian-muertes-
ninos-venezuela-por-crisis-salud_253833
Unum
2018-10-08 16:08:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Aubrin
Post by Wally W.
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
* Scientists say it could be done but it would require rapid action
now.
Define "action."
Does it include genocide?
Will weasels say what they mean by "action?"
Action is to starve economies and population of energy, rapid is only a
The report clearly describes the severe consequences of increased
warming, some of which we are already seeing take place. Why does
aubrin hate humanity so much?
Post by Paul Aubrin
few years. For the results have a look at what Nicolas Maduro succeeded
to do in Venezuela. Obesity there is a word of the past.
The behavior of a dictator in Venezuela has nothing to do with any of this.
Wally W.
2018-10-09 03:20:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Post by Wally W.
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
* Scientists say it could be done but it would require rapid action
now.
Define "action."
Does it include genocide?
Will weasels say what they mean by "action?"
Action is to starve economies and population of energy, rapid is only a
The report clearly describes the severe consequences of increased
warming, some of which we are already seeing take place. Why does
aubrin hate humanity so much?
Post by Paul Aubrin
few years. For the results have a look at what Nicolas Maduro succeeded
to do in Venezuela. Obesity there is a word of the past.
The behavior of a dictator in Venezuela has nothing to do with any of this.
So do you disagree with his interpretation of "action" or not?

If not, what do you mean?

And don't try a Kymmie and say you didn't write it.

You copied and pasted it. You volunteered to wear it and defend it.
Paul Aubrin
2018-10-09 05:53:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Action is to starve economies and population of energy, rapid is only a
The report clearly describes the severe consequences of increased
warming, some of which we are already seeing take place. Why does
aubrin hate humanity so much?
Post by Paul Aubrin
few years. For the results have a look at what Nicolas Maduro succeeded
to do in Venezuela. Obesity there is a word of the past.
The behavior of a dictator in Venezuela has nothing to do with any of this.
I don't point you to the motives of Maduro, but to the results of his
action. Human welfare is more or less driven by the number of virtual
energy slaves we can afford. Starving humanity from energy would make
humanity collapse just like the Venezuelan society is collapsing under
the rule of Maduro. The IPCC was founded, at the end of the 1970's, by
Malthusians who wanted to get rid of 1/3 of humanity to "Save The
Planet". They imagined that if they didn't succeed quickly, essential
resources such a oil, iron, aluminium would lack before the end of the
20th century. Pollution would kill everybody. Their projections proved
totally false. But their "climate" program survived.
Unum
2018-10-09 14:13:46 UTC
Permalink
Post by Paul Aubrin
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Action is to starve economies and population of energy, rapid is only a
The report clearly describes the severe consequences of increased
warming, some of which we are already seeing take place. Why does
aubrin hate humanity so much?
Post by Paul Aubrin
few years. For the results have a look at what Nicolas Maduro succeeded
to do in Venezuela. Obesity there is a word of the past.
The behavior of a dictator in Venezuela has nothing to do with any of this.
I don't point you to the motives of Maduro, but to the results of his
action. Human welfare is more or less driven by the number of virtual
energy slaves we can afford. Starving humanity from energy would make
"Virtual energy slaves", lol. A pathetic load of paranoid blabbering.
Wally W.
2018-10-10 04:50:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Action is to starve economies and population of energy, rapid is only a
The report clearly describes the severe consequences of increased
warming, some of which we are already seeing take place. Why does
aubrin hate humanity so much?
Post by Paul Aubrin
few years. For the results have a look at what Nicolas Maduro succeeded
to do in Venezuela. Obesity there is a word of the past.
The behavior of a dictator in Venezuela has nothing to do with any of this.
I don't point you to the motives of Maduro, but to the results of his
action. Human welfare is more or less driven by the number of virtual
energy slaves we can afford. Starving humanity from energy would make
"Virtual energy slaves", lol. A pathetic load of paranoid blabbering.
Unum might parse it as well as he does anthropoMORPHIC global warming.
John Smith
2018-10-10 20:43:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Action is to starve economies and population of energy, rapid is only a
The report clearly describes the severe consequences of increased
warming, some of which we are already seeing take place. Why does
aubrin hate humanity so much?
Post by Paul Aubrin
few years. For the results have a look at what Nicolas Maduro succeeded
to do in Venezuela. Obesity there is a word of the past.
The behavior of a dictator in Venezuela has nothing to do with any of this.
I don't point you to the motives of Maduro, but to the results of his
action. Human welfare is more or less driven by the number of virtual
energy slaves we can afford. Starving humanity from energy would make
"Virtual energy slaves", lol. A pathetic load of paranoid blabbering.
Book a vacation in Caracas.
Paul Aubrin
2018-10-11 18:50:23 UTC
Permalink
Post by John Smith
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Post by Unum
Post by Paul Aubrin
Action is to starve economies and population of energy, rapid is only a
The report clearly describes the severe consequences of increased
warming, some of which we are already seeing take place. Why does
aubrin hate humanity so much?
Post by Paul Aubrin
few years. For the results have a look at what Nicolas Maduro
succeeded to do in Venezuela. Obesity there is a word of the past.
The behavior of a dictator in Venezuela has nothing to do with any of this.
I don't point you to the motives of Maduro, but to the results of his
action. Human welfare is more or less driven by the number of virtual
energy slaves we can afford. Starving humanity from energy would make
"Virtual energy slaves", lol. A pathetic load of paranoid blabbering.
This afternoon, I saw a man raise a load of 4000kg to an height of 4m in
less than 30 seconds.
4000x9,81x4=156960J
156960/30 = 5232W

A well-fed and motivated manual laborer may sustain an output of around
75 watts of work.
5232/75~=70.
The machine this person used replaced (advantageously) 70 humans slaves.
Post by John Smith
Book a vacation in Caracas.
Catoni
2018-10-08 18:10:36 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
The latest IPCC report has just been released.
<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2018/oct/08/ipcc-climate-change-report-urgent-action-fossil-fuels-live>
Global warming must not exceed 1.5C, warns landmark UN report
"The Guardian"... 5555555 :) Britain's largest Socialist/Marxist-Leninist propaganda rag...


Meanwhile..... in the real world :

Climate Bombshell: Audit Exposes IPCC Data As ‘Careless And Amateur’

Published on October 7, 2018

Written by Paul Homewood

The first ever audit of the world’s most important temperature data set has found it to be so riddled with errors that it is effectively useless.

HadCRUT4 is the primary dataset used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to make its dramatic claims about “man-made global warming”, to justify its demands for trillions of dollars to be spent on “combating climate change” and as the basis for the Paris Climate Accord.

But according to a groundbreaking analysis by Australian researcher John McLean it’s far too sloppy to be taken seriously even by climate scientists, let alone a body as influential as the IPCC or by the governments of the world.

“It’s very careless and amateur,” he says. “About the standard of a first-year university student.”

Among the many errors found by McLean were:

Large gaps where there is no data and where instead averages were calculated from next to no information. For two years, the temperatures over land in the Southern Hemisphere were estimated from just one site in Indonesia.

Almost no quality control, with misspelled country names (‘Venezuala” “Hawaai” “Republic of K” (aka South Korea) and sloppy, obviously inaccurate entries.

Adjustments – “I wouldn’t be surprised to find that more than 50 percent of adjustments were incorrect,” says McLean – which artificially cool earlier temperatures and warm later ones, giving an exaggerated impression of the rate of global warming.

Methodology so inconsistent that measurements didn’t even have a reliable policy on variables like Daylight Saving Time.

Sea measurements, supposedly from ships, but mistakenly logged up to 50 miles inland.
A Caribbean island – St Kitts – where the temperature was recorded at 0 degrees C for a whole month, on two occasions (somewhat implausibly for the tropics)

A town in Romania which in September 1953, allegedly experienced a month where the average temperature dropped to minus 46 degrees C (when the typical average for that month is 10 degrees C).

Yet this is the temperature record from which the IPCC has formed its judgement that the “global warming” since the mid-19th century is sufficiently alarming for governments around the world to have to take urgent action, which is currently costing taxpayers around $2 trillion per annum.

The HadCRUT4 dataset is a joint production of the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre and the Climatic Research Unit (of Climategate notoriety) at the University of East Anglia.
According to McLean:

“It seems like neither organization properly checked the land or sea temperature data before using it in the HadCRUT4 dataset. If it had been checked then the CRU might have queried the more obvious errors in data supplied by different countries. The Hadley Centre might also have found some of the inconsistencies in the sea surface temperature data, along with errors that it created itself when it copied data from the hand-written logs of some Royal Navy ships.”

McLean’s report could scarcely have come at a more embarrassing time for the IPCC. On Monday, it will release its 2018 Summary for Policy Makers claiming that the global warming crisis is more urgent than ever. But what McLean’s audit strongly suggests is that these claims are based on data that simply cannot be trusted.

Though the IPCC uses three main surface temperature datasets – the others are compiled in the U.S. by NASA and NOAA – the UK-based HadCRUT is its preferred one for historical reasons: the founder of the Hadley Centre (where HadCRUT is partly produced) was Sir John Houghton, who also happened to be co-chairman of the Working Group 1 of IPCC and was editor of its first report.

So the fact that the IPCC’s primary dataset has been shown up as shoddy, unreliable and amateurish is not helpful to the IPCC’s credibility.

As McLean says:

“Governments have had 25 years to check the data on which they’ve been spending billions of dollars. And they haven’t done so once.”

McLean is the Australian IT analyst who broke another scandal about the global warming scare: that it was effectively the creation of just 53 people.

He reached this figure by analysing the IPCC’s 2007 Assessment Report, which, according to the IPCC, represented a “consensus” of the views of “2500 climate scientists”.

But in fact the number of scientists involved in the key Chapter 9 – the one which reached the headline conclusion that human-induced warming was detectable in every continent except Antarctica, and that this was leading to all manner of disasters from melting glaciers and sea ice to changing rainfall patterns and more intense cyclone activity – was just 53.

Furthermore – as Christopher Booker reported in his The Real Global Warming Disaster – these 53 authors mostly belonged to a close professional network, intimately bound with Michael Mann’s “hockey stick”. Not so much a “consensus” then. More – as the subsequent Climategate scandal confirmed – a cabal of vested interests.

McLean’s audit on the failings of HadCRUT is available here from the website Robert Boyle Publishing. It costs US $8 which may provide some recompense for his unpaid work, conducted as an extension of his PhD thesis, supervised at James Cook University by Peter Ridd.

Ridd is the professor who was hounded out of his job after telling the truth about the Great Barrier Reef: that it wasn’t being destroyed by “global warming.” Since this didn’t accord with the narrative being promoted by his alarmist institution he was fired on the pretext that he had “engaged in a pattern of conduct that misrepresents the nature and conduct of the disciplinary process through publi­cations online and in the media”.

Such are the inaccuracies in the data record, McLean believes, that it is impossible to know how much global temperatures have really risen.

But he estimates that of the 0.6 degrees C that the planet has warmed since 1950, perhaps one third has been exaggerated.

So the real figure, he estimates, is a warming of 0.4 degrees C in the last seven decades.

“Most people can’t even notice a change in temperature of 1 degree C for one moment to the next. So the idea that governments are spending so much money on the basis of a rise in temperature a fraction of that spread over almost 70 years is just idiotic beyond belief.”

The Hadley Centre and Met Office will find it difficult to dismiss McLean as a crank. In March 2016, he advised them of certain errors which they promptly corrected. So he’s an authority they take seriously.

Read more at notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com

https://principia-scientific.org/climate-bombshell-audit-exposes-ipcc-data-as-careless-and-amateur/
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