N_Cook
2024-12-14 15:41:47 UTC
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PermalinkIndicial curve fit still the best fit and the century projection curve
y = 2.454760 + 0.114454*x^1.361262
y is global SLR in Aviso terms and x is year minus 2000, 6dp figures
retained for anyone else wishing to repeat/confirm these results.
To 2100 processing all the data each time ,from 2003.0 to avoid
post-Pinatubo global geodata hiatus ,804 datapoints, SLR of 62.871 cm.
Recent history of these processed Aviso 10 day outputs , after a very
long run of -going values , the 24 Dec 2022 one, the first regular 10
day whole-earth-orbits scan cycle Aviso output, started going positive
but then continued negative until July 2023 with El Nino kicking in.
Latest data-point date, 2100 projected value
24 Dec 2022, 70.011cm
03 Jan 2023, 70.008
13 Jan 2023, 70.07
23 Jan 2023, 70.08
02 Feb 2023, 69.94 (- 0.14)
22 Feb 2023, 69.45 (-0.49)
03 Mar 2023, 69.33 (-0.12)
14 Mar 2023, 69.31 (-0.02)
24 Mar 2023, 69.17 (-0.14)
03 Apr 2023, 68.84cm (-0.33)
22 Apr 2023, 68.05 (-0.79)
02 May 2023, 67.82 (-0.23)
12 May 2023, 67.82 ( zero )
22 May 2023, 67.800 ( -0.02 cm)
01 June 2023, 67.729 (-0.07cm
01 July 2023 , 67.479 (- 0.25cm)
11 July 2023, 67.694 (+0.21cm)
21 July 2023, 67.807 (+0.11cm)
30 July 2023, 67.862 (+0.06cm)
19 Aug 2023, 67.894 (+0.03cm)
29 Aug 2023, 67.9962 (+0.10cm)
08 Sep 2023, 68.044 (+0.05cm)
18 Sep 2023, 68.178 (+0.13cm)
18 Oct 2023, 68.904 (+0.72cm)
28 Oct 2023, 69.068 (+0.16cm)
06 Nov 2023, 69.201 (+0.13cm)
23 Dec 2023, 69.097 (-0.10cm)
06 Dec 2023, 68.969 (-0.13cm)
16 Dec 2023, 68.969 (zero to 3dp)
26 Dec 2023, 69.093 (+0.12cm)
05 Jan 2024, 69.296 (+0.20cm)
15 Jan 2024, 69.433 (+0.13cm)
25 Jan 2024, 69.528 (+0.10cm)
01 Aug 2024, 65.019 (-4.51cm large time gap)
09 Sep 2024, 64.071 (-0.85cm )
19 Oct 2024, 64.675 (+0.60cm )
23 Nov 2024, 63.239 (-1.44cm )
From that curve for the last year 2023.0 to 2024.0,
annual global SLR of
4.87 mm and locally for South Hampshire UK , sinking
from post-glacial isostatic counter rebound by about 1.7mm/year, (minus
the 0.3mm/yr 'Peltier' global GIA included in the Aviso
reference figures) gives 6.27mm/year or 1/4 inch per year for the
Solent SLR, or more than half a millimetre a month local SLR.
Earlier results on the URL below. Also an increase in local UK mean sea
level of about 3mm in the last year. No academic reporting of this,no
explanation in the latest 2023/2024 MetO State of the UK Climate report,
just a cover-up "glitch" 6am GMT 29 Aug 2024 in the archives of all UK
ports in their system .
Making this awkward RMS error magically disappear but making the
ridiclous situation of the Exeter big-data surge predictions no
longer obey the basic oceanographic principle of inverse-barometer and
0.0m residuals at 1013 mBar and quiet weather.
I suspect with slowing of AMOC and Greenland meltwater and Baltic
freshwater and so salinity change , less dense seawater and
consequential increasing the sea height. The deep cold return path is
not up to the job and water is building up in the NE Atlantic.
A slowing of AMOC from the principle that reductions in the amount of
Atlantic bottom water reaching the ocean floor increases sea levels
because the warmer water that replaces it takes up more space.
This UK MSL <>0.15m anomaly over recent years is showing up with
similar values in two other independent monitoring processes,
independent of NTSLF and independent of each other. Unknown to me
whether the same anomaly is showing up in Scandinavia or Iceland, or
France say. A possible alternative explanation could be hydro-isostasy
from the extra weight of sea water in the last few decades , depressing
the NE Atlantic basin. But how that would affect the margin, ie like the
UK, up or down is unknown to me , additional to post-glacial GIA, but
difficult to see it amounting to about 0.15m.
Or of course simple warming of N. Atlantic water to depth, increasing
sea level . Until the mechanism of this mean sea level rise is known,
its impossible to say whether the anomalous rise is limited, cyclic or
ongoing, currently my analysis of it shows it to be ongoing rising in 2023.
This global SLR curve fit using
ftp://ftp.aviso.altimetry.fr/pub/oceano/AVISO/indicators/msl/MSL_Serie_MERGED_Global_AVISO_GIA_Adjust_Filter2m.txt
data from
http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html
and off-line curve-fitter from
<statpages.info/nonlin.html>
--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>