Post by gordo
Another El Nino is likely on its way: Here's what to expect
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It's almost been a double El Nino -- no La Nina in between.
Bad news for AUS. Generally means even less rainfall in ag areas.
As we know, EN/LN are phenomena associated with the sea surf temps
in the tropical east Pacific. So we'd expect there is an association
with overall increasing global temps.
I've posted data on this before. But -- nachly -- we expected the /D\ullards
in the audience to have "forgotten" (aka not even gotten past their
eye filters) anything like this.
We can look at what fraction of months have been spent in +ve ENSO
territory. 3m with an ENSO index above .5 is an official El Nino some places
(other places have more conditions, e.g. the Aussie BoM).
If we plot atm CO2 against the percent of months in each year
with a positive ENSO value we get:
(lag 3 years)
y = 0.0038534*x + -0.773274
beta = 0.0038534 +- 0.00140392 90% CI
T-test: P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999973
r2 = 0.403161
calculated Spearman corr = 0.530023
Critical Spearman = 0.432000 2-sided; at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
IOW there is strong statistical evidence that El Ninos are more likely
as CO2 levels increase. The proportion of months in +ve ENSO phase
increases by 38% for each 100 ppmv of additional CO2 in the atm.
The T-test and Spearman test both put this like at better than 99% likely.
The R2 shows that 40% of the annual variation in this fraction of +ve ENSO
months followes similar variations in atm CO2. I.e. CO2 is likely
one of 2 or 3 factors that fully explain El Nino development post 1950
(when accurate ENSO data series begin).
Residents fight move to cull rare mob of up to 1,000 'suburban' kangaroos
ABC News, 04 Aug 2018 23:10Z
There are calls to save hundreds of kangaroos living in a suburban nature
reserve in Perth from a cull, as the local council flags concerns such a
move may spark an outbreak of Ross River virus in the area.
The seedy business of preserving plant species for posterity
ABC Radio Brisbane, 04 Aug 2018 23:11Z
A small vault in the back of the Brisbane Botanical Gardens is under lock
and key, keeping some of the world's rarest seeds safe and sound.
Al Jazeera Weather @AJEWeather 04 Aug 2018 14:17Z
Gusty wind warnings issued in California raising concerns wildfires will spread.
Al Jazeera Weather @AJEWeather 04 Aug 2018 15:16Z
The sun rises through the Arc de Triomphe as the heatwave continues to grip
Europe. [Geoffroy Van Der Hasselt/AFP] pic.twitter.com/JqzAVg4pMv
Typhoon Shanshan to threaten Japan later in the new week
AccuWeather.com, 04 Aug 2018 17:58Z
Typhoon Shanshan will approach Japan later in the new week with heavy rain
and high winds. While the tropical cyclone is over the open western Pacific
[At this point forecasts point at max gusts of 185 kph and tracking
directly for Tokyo].
NWS @NWS 04 Aug 2018 21:18Z
Smoke is impacting much of California and surrounding areas. Check
weather.gov for the latest forecasts, and to see if Air Quality Alerts
and/or Dense Smoke Advisories have been issued for your area.
NWS @NWS 04 Aug 2018 21:18Z
Hector remains a major Cat 3 hurricane with sustained winds at 125 mph.
NWS Phoenix @NWSPhoenix 05 Aug 2018 13:14Z
An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for the greater Phoenix area
Monday! Highs 109-112 for much of the area. 1-2 deg. cooler Tuesday. Take
appropriate precautions and stay hydrated! #azwx pic.twitter.com/n883BVgiRl
Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk 05 Aug 2018 12:42Z
Meanwhile In China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, rainfall reached 110
mm in 1 hour (v. previous highest recorded level of 52.4 mm); floodwater
breached a reservoir designed to withstand 300-year floods;8,700 houses
damaged; at least 20 dead buff.ly/2LQ8x9D #climate