2018-09-09 15:36:42 UTC
allow us innumerate morons to peruse da climate conditions of da past.
One current example might be the temperatures of central Europe over
the past 2000 years.
Da papers say sorrow stones placed in parts of the R Elbe have shown
up for the first time since ~1400.
What can be the similarity between the 14th/15th cent and today?
The data is at
and the specific proxies for central Europe are:
Let's thin about ribers for a sec. They sometime rise in mountains
from snow pack. When there are enough years with sufficient snowfall
the annual melt can keep the river flowing even over some years where
there is insufficient snowfall.
Producing a weighted average (max weight for locations around lng 15
where the Elbe rises) of the relevant temperatures and looking at how
often a year in the record averaged above -.5C (from plots we see one
time temps crossed from below -.5C to sig above -.5C was 1400 --
coincident with the date on one of the hunger stones) we see:
Decade frac of years average >-.5C
140 0.9 <-- ONE HUNGER STONE CREATED HERE
195 0.8 <-- 40 years with snowfall nr critical .9 level
199 1 <-- 100% of years average above -.5C
If 1400 was a critical date for drought/starvation then it seems to
correspond to the first time in at least a century where average temps
for a decade were almost all above -.5C. Apparently this signifies
insufficient snowfall in the Giant Mountains on the border of Czech &
Pol for the Elbe to flow well.
After the first hunger stones were placed we can presume some action
was taken to mitigate low river levels. River management. Emergency
food stores. That kind of thing. (In the 20th cent Elbe river
management took off big time "for some reason").
There are certainly some times after this point where the odd decade
popped up to the same critical level (given we're using snowfall
proxies here) but we note that the region is seeing warmer and warmer
years from c1810-1820 until we see c1950 there are a string of 4
decades -- unique in the record upto that point -- where only 8 years
in 40 seem to have significant snowfalls in the mountains.
And *then* the 1990s seem to have even less snowfall.
Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk 08 Sep 2018 05:54Z
Japan's Kansai airport: "Engineers had boasted that the [airport's sea]
walls [could] withstand storms as strong as a major 1961 typhoon that caused
the sea to surge 9 feet" But Typhoon Jebi's storm surge reached 11 feet, a
record for Osaka Bay nytimes.com/2018/09/07/cli#
Eggs recalled in Sydney after cluster of salmonella cases
ABC News, 08 Sep 2018 06:35Z
The NSW Food Authority is investigating 23 confirmed cases of salmonella
poisoning as Glendenning Farm eggs are recalled from small independent
supermarkets and retailers in Sydney.
[Fallout from Civil War:]
Liberals on track to lose 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election
ABC News, 08 Sep 2018 11:24Z
The Liberals are on track to losing the 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election, ABC
election analyst Antony Green says.
Wagga Wagga, in New South Wales's Riverina region, has been a safe Liberal
seat since 1957.
Results indicate the Liberal Party's first preference vote has halved since
the last election in 2015.
Liberal candidate Julia Ham is currently in third place behind independent
Joe McGirr and the Labor Party's Dan Hayes.
Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk 08 Sep 2018 11:54Z
Electric vehicles already able to cut emissions from transport sector by at
least 50%: Smaller EVs produce 15 tonnes of CO2 from construction through to
scrapping, compared to an average of 32 tonnes for the equivalent petrol or
diesel car buff.ly/2oPEwJ1 #climate pic.twitter.com/ujRhlf91vp
Liberals lose Wagga Wagga state seat held for more than 60 years
ABC News, 09 Sep 2018
The Liberals have lost Wagga Wagga for the first time since winning it in
1957, ABC election analyst Antony Green says, with results indicating the
party's first-preference vote has halved since the last election in 2015.
[The opinion polls were spot on. The Libs have blown a seat on a 13% margin
after a 30% swing against them].
Households are now spending more than they are saving - and that's not
ABC News Analysis, 08 Sep 2018 19:02Z
On current trends, Australian households are about to slip back into the
relatively rare state of dis-saving. That means we'll have to either earn
more or spend less.
Florence expected to become hurricane on way to US East Coast
Channel NewsAsia, 08 Sep 2018 17:52Z
Tropical Storm Florence was expected to strengthen back into a
hurricane by Sat night, as forecasters warned that the storm ...
[GFS is showing Flo will reach the US coast on Thu and hang around for
My models are not seeing any impact on the US. The SST off the coast
are way above normal -- 07sep2018 gmt +2.1C and has been warming. Off
S Florida +.31C and cooling. Neither region shows the typical ~.2-.3C
drop associated with a hurricane approaching from the E. Bermuda
looks set to get ~5" of rain ~10-14 Sep. On the US coast only the W G
Mex shows any storm twitches, and even that looks relatively minor
1-2" 13-17 Sep. All in all Florance looks set to veer off into the
Giant boom en route to clean up huge Pacific 'island' of rubbish
ABC News, 09 Sep 2018
Engineers deploy a 600-metre floating boom from San Francisco to move
between California and Hawaii in an attempt to clean up the world's biggest
clump of floating plastic.
Tropical Storm Isaac forms, one of 3 storms churning in Atlantic
CBS News, 09 Sep 2018 04:09Z
Tropical Storm Isaac formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Sat, the National
Hurricane Center said. It's one of 3 storms churning in the ...
Questions over 'war on drugs' as NSW drug busts accidentally counted twice
ABC News, 09 Sep 2018 07:13Z
Drug-related crime data for NSW has been mistakenly inflated by the official
reporting agency for 7 years due to "double counting", raising questions
over the govt's tough stance on illegal drugs.