polar warming: why the US should expect severe
(too old to reply)
2018-05-16 06:30:02 UTC
Peter Gleick @PeterGleick 15 May 2018 22:20Z
Gee, if I'm reading Twitter right, some kind of apocalyptic storm is
destroying NYC right now?


Warm Oceans, Displaced Polar Air: Why the Eastern US is Likely to See Very Severe Rainfall During May

During recent years, warm ocean surfaces have loaded up the atmosphere
with increasing levels of moisture. This moisture, in turn, has fueled
more powerful rain storm events across the globe. Meanwhile, climate
change is generating regions of increased instability by placing much
warmer than normal air masses in confrontation with cold air displaced
from a warming Arctic Ocean region.

How Climate Change is Impacting Severe Weather Potentials Over the Eastern US

(How climate change is impacting severe weather potentials across the
US East Coast during May. Data provided by Earth Nullschool, Climate
Reanalyzer, and the National Weather Service.)

During the coming days, this kind of pattern will generate the
potential for severe rainfall events across the US East Coast. NOAA
is predicting that between 3-7 inches of rain is likely to fall over
the next 5-7 days. But due to the unusual situation, locally extreme
and unexpected events may occur.

This severe weather potential has been fed by a combination of
factors. A warmer than normal Arctic Ocean has shoved cold polar air
south over the Hudson Bay region. The resulting trough is generating
stormy conditions and atmospheric instability over much of Eastern
North America. To the south and east, much warmer than normal sea
surfaces have loaded up the atmosphere with extremely high moisture levels.

<Loading Image...
(NOAA shows that heavy rainfall is likely to dominate large portions
of the Eastern US over the coming weeks. With a number of climate
change related influences at play, the potential for outsized severe
weather events exists. Image source: NOAA.)

It's the kind of pattern - within a highly charged atmosphere - that
is capable of producing serious instances of severe weather. Heavy
rainfall, hail, lightning and tornadoes are all more likely. Factors
associated with climate change contributing to the situation include -
much warmer than normal ocean surfaces off the US Eastern Seaboard
and Gulf Coast, a much warmer than normal Arctic Ocean region for this
time of year, displaced polar air near Hudson Bay, and warmer than
normal temperatures over much of the US

As Greenland melt comes more into play, and as temperatures continue
to spike higher over the Arctic Ocean in coming years, we can expect
to see similar patterns producing greater instability and more intense
storms. Particularly for the land zones near the North Atlantic. And
so what we are seeing now is a likely prelude of events to come as the
Earth continues to warm coordinate with continued fossil fuel burning
- with mitigating factors primarily involving reduced carbon emissions.

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China's emission trend worrying in April with no sign of the debt-driven
industry&construction boom abating. power generation +6.9% YoY
-thermal +7.3%
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coal output +4%
crude steel +5%
cement +3%
non-ferrous +3%

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Erin Coughlan de Perez @CoughlanClimate 15 May 2018 15:44Z
Erin Coughlan de Perez Retweeted Eric Holthaus
Weather forecasts are excellent - the next frontier is that we are now
combining weather forecasts with vulnerability and exposure information to
forecast impact and know where it is most critical to take early action.
Erin Coughlan de Perez added,
Eric Holthaus @EricHolthaus
Weather forecasts have quietly become extremely accurate - we can now
anticipate potential humanitarian crises and give organizations like the
Red Cross a chance at stopping them before they begin.

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NWS @NWS 15 May 2018 19:15Z
With plenty of ongoing severe weather already, and watches lasting into
tonight, it will continue to be very important to stay on top of the weather
today in much of the Northeast. Think about what YOU AND YOUR FAMILY would
do in the case of a warning. http://weather.gov
<Loading Image...>
<Loading Image...>

Trump's summit with Kim in doubt as North Korea cancels latest talks
ABC News, 15 May 2018 20:15Z
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Robert Rohde @rarohde 15 May 2018 22:24Z
History of #CarbonDioxide in the atmosphere over the last 10,000 years. For
thousands of years, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere barely
changed, then mankind discovered the usefulness of burning #FossilFuels. Our
world will never be the same.
[10ky of CO2:]
<Loading Image...>

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More than 400K without power as severe thunderstorms batter Northeast
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Dead monster croc photo posted on social media sparks investigation
<Loading Image...>
ABC News, 16 May 2018
Authorities investigate the shooting death of a 4.3 metre crocodile in far
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Crocodiles are a protected species in Queensland, with the illegal taking of
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Los Angeles Times, 15 May 2018 17:06Z

Wall Street tumbles on surging interest rates
ABC News, 15 May 2018 23:12Z
US markets suffered their biggest one-day drop in 3 weeks, over the
looming prospect of higher inflation and further rate hikes.

American Outdoor Brands Corp
NASDAQ: AOBC - Closed: 15 May 4:00 pm GMT-4
11.30 USD +0.070 (0.62%) up

Siemens AG
ETR: SIE - 15 May 5:35 pm GMT+2
116.18 EUR +0.70 (0.61%) up

Peabody Energy Corporation
NYSE: BTU - Closed: 15 May 4:00 pm GMT-4
40.08 USD +0.16 (0.40%) up

Exxon Mobil Corporation
NYSE: XOM - Closed: 15 May 4:00 pm GMT-4
81.79 USD -0.040 (0.049%) even

Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation
NYSE: COG - Closed: 15 May 4:00 pm GMT-4
23.20 USD -0.0100 (0.043%) even

Suncor Energy Inc. (USA)
TSE: SU - 15 May 4:00 pm GMT-4
52.51 CAD -0.19 (0.36%) down

Boeing Co
NYSE: BA - 15 May 1:55 pm GMT-4
341.92 USD -2.65 (0.77%) down

TSE: TRP - 15 May 4:15 pm GMT-4
55.61 CAD -0.47 (0.84%) down

Airbus SE
EPA: AIR - 15 May 5:36 pm GMT+2
96.25 EUR -0.83 (0.85%) down

Gazprom PAO
MCX: GAZP - 15 May 6:49 pm GMT+3
149.20 RUB -1.78 (1.18%) *** down 1.2% ***

Air France KLM SA
EPA: AF - 15 May 5:39 pm GMT+2
7.21 EUR -0.26 (3.53%) *** down 3.5% ***
Wally W.
2018-05-16 11:33:36 UTC
Heartland Institute incident

... and ...
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
I'm a progressive novelist, non-fiction writer and emerging threats

JTEM is right
2018-05-16 13:48:08 UTC
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
During recent years, warm ocean surfaces have loaded up the atmosphere
with increasing levels of moisture.
This explains the prolonged drought in
the midwest.

-- --

JTEM is right
2018-05-16 13:50:59 UTC
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
Gee, if I'm reading Twitter right, some kind of apocalyptic storm is
destroying NYC right now?
The story is dated yesterday. You posted it less
than 4 1/2 hours after it was released. It (and
you) are literally looking out the window and
"predicting" what you see.

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