Discussion:
mid Apr 2019: tornadoes on track for >=avg year for the 2010s
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M***@kymhorsell.com
2019-04-16 03:44:06 UTC
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NOAA Norman OK has released its latest assessment of US tornadoes.

Data from 2018 remains still unfinalized, but shows 2018 was about
average for the 2010s which was has been above-avg period.

Data for 2019 upto mid Apr shows YTD has above the 2018 and 2016
counts for tornadoes, but is lagging behind 2017 which was a record year.

Storm strengths after 2017 still remain unfinalized. While newspaper
reports some extreme storms for 2018, downloadable data showing an
authoritative number of major events is not available.

The incomplete processing does show the number of killer tornadoes was
around average for the decade in 2018 with the number of victims
running around 1/2 the avg annual total for the decade.

The dec-by-dec average number of US tornadoes are as follows:

Decade Avg annual verified tornado count
1950 490.5
1960 693.8
1970 871.1
1980 831.2
1990 1227.6
2000 1297.0
2010 1208.7(*)

The dec-by-dec count of weather fatalities killed while at home
shows a similar distribution, albeit starting from 1990 and not 1950:

Decade Total weather victims dying at home
1990 1027
2000 1439
2010 1426(*)

(*) Incomplete.

-- snip --

ZCZC STAMTS ALL
NWUS21 KWNS 151739

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH 15 APRIL 2019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT MON APR 15 2019

...NUMBER OF TORNADOES... NUMBER OF KILLER
TORNADO DEATHS TORNADOES
..2019.. 2018 2017 2016 3YR 3YR 3YR
PREL ACT ACT ACT ACT AV 19 18 17 16 AV 19 18 17 16 AV
--- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
JAN 18 - 16* 137 17 61 0 0 20 2 7 0 0 3 1 1
FEB 26 - 46* 69 103 58 1 2 5 7 5 1 2 4 4 3
MAR 125 - 62* 192 85 96 23 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
APR 48 - 146* 214 142 176 1 1 8 1 3 1 1 5 1 2
217
pro rata:
434 270 612 347 391

MAY - - 166* 291 217 296 - 1 2 2 2 - 1 2 2 2
JUN - - 166* 146 86 139 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
JUL - - 96* 81 108 101 - 1 0 0 0 - 1 0 0 0
AUG - - 82* 119 90 85 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
SEP - - 111* 51 39 36 - 1 0 0 0 - 1 0 0 0
OCT - - 159* 75 20 45 - 0 0 0 0 - 0 0 0 0
NOV - - 58* 42 50 64 - 3 0 6 3 - 2 0 2 1
DEC - - 46* 12 19 38 - 1 0 0 0 - 1 0 0 0
--- ---- ---- ----- ---- ---- ----- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
SUM 237 - 1154* 1429 976 1199 25 10 35 18 21 3 9 14 10 11

*PRELIMINARY REPORTS.
^PRELIMINARY/INCOMPLETE VERSION OF FINAL COUNTS.

PREL = 2019 PRELIMINARY COUNT FROM ALL NWS LOCAL STORM REPORTS.
ACT = ACTUAL TORNADO COUNT BASED ON NWS STORM DATA SUBMISSIONS.

COMPARISONS BETWEEN PRELIMINARY AND ACTUAL COUNTS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

..MARSH/GUYER..04/15/2019

--
Upcoming events:
18 Apr 2019 Mar 2019 global SOTC NOAA
09 Jul 2019 19Q2 bn-dollar disasters NOAA

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JTEM is Remarkably Flexible
2019-04-16 04:23:07 UTC
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Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
Data from 2018 remains still unfinalized, but shows 2018 was about
average for the 2010s which was has been above-avg period.
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-06-26-united-states-lowest-tornado-count

: The preliminary number of tornadoes in the U.S. through late June is at
: its lowest in at least 13 years largely due to a lackluster May and June.


https://www.kansas.com/news/weather/article212365444.html

: Weather officials wonder: 'Why so few tornadoes this year?'



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornadoes_of_2018

: with near record low tornado amounts in the typical peak month of May.






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