Discussion:
news flash: mo co2 == mo California in drought
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M***@kymhorsell.com
2019-03-12 04:04:35 UTC
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With the big pineapple delivering a record dump on California this
past month everyone is real glad only 10% of the state is not in
drought.

While hillbillies cheer the drought problem can now be ignored like
everything else that scares them, everyone else is counting down till
conditions dis-improve again and most likely head into new bad record
territory in the next few years.

We can check what the future might bring simply by building a simple
robust statistical model.

We know atm CO2 is going up and the best we can expect for the next 50
years is it might go up less than 3 ppmv per year for part of that
time.

So let's derive a model that makes "area of no drought" in Cal
against atm CO2.

The Cal drought data comes from:
<https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california>
(You can download a CVS off the relevant graphs).

Using a binning time series package we find:


MODEL:
y = -1.83242*x + 738.452
beta in -1.83242 +- 0.307549 95%
P(beta<0.000000) = 1.000000
r2 = 0.868505
calculated Spearman corr = -0.870000
Critical Spearman = 0.475000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected

Bin label av atm CO2 av cal !drought model-est !drought
(ppmv) (%) (%)
2001.79 368.31 56.46 63.555
2001.62 369.557 74.9472 61.27*
2002.62 371.677 53.8102 57.3853
2002.04 372.45 50.4078 55.9688
2003.79 373.203 48.6482 54.589
2003.12 375.163 51.6107 50.9975
2005.79 376.9 68.3181 47.8146**
2004.54 377.74 38.943 46.2753
2007.79 381.245 46.6117 39.8527
2008.79 382.443 44.9443 37.6575
2009.79 384.44 24.4431 33.9982*
2010.79 387.3 25.5753 28.7574
2013.79 393.43 33.6544 17.5247*
2012.54 394.3 14.184 15.9305
2013.62 395.15 0 14.373*
2014.79 395.89 9.9062 13.017
2014.62 397.033 3.60187 10.9225
2015.79 398.095 0.719194 8.97651
2015.62 398.985 0.07 7.34566
2015.12 400.11 0.093889 5.28419
2015.54 401.32 0.07 3.06696
2016.04 402.52 6.68333 0.868065
2015.29 403.26 0.1425 0
2016.12 404.02 7.21125 0
2016.29 407.42 3.895 0


We see as per usual there is a high degree of connection between atm
CO2 and the% of California not in drought. Both stat tests
claim 99% or higher confidence of the link. For each 1 ppmv of CO2 in
the atm the area of Cal not in drought declines by approx 2+-0.3
points.

At atm levels of around 403 ppmv or higher the model predicts
California has some area of drought.

At present (March 2019) about 10% is classified as D0 "abnormally
dry".

--
Upcoming events:
18 Mar 2019 Global SOTC NOAA
08 Apr 2019 2019Q1 $bn disasters NOAA


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Bret Cahill
2019-03-12 04:16:52 UTC
Reply
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
With the big pineapple delivering a record dump on California this
past month everyone is real glad only 10% of the state is not in
drought.
While hillbillies cheer the drought problem can now be ignored like
everything else that scares them, everyone else is counting down till
conditions dis-improve again and most likely head into new bad record
territory in the next few years.
More like 16 months if not 8 months.
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
We can check what the future might bring simply by building a simple
robust statistical model.
We know atm CO2 is going up and the best we can expect for the next 50
years is it might go up less than 3 ppmv per year for part of that
time.
So let's derive a model that makes "area of no drought" in Cal
against atm CO2.
<https://www.drought.gov/drought/states/california>
(You can download a CVS off the relevant graphs).
y = -1.83242*x + 738.452
beta in -1.83242 +- 0.307549 95%
P(beta<0.000000) = 1.000000
r2 = 0.868505
calculated Spearman corr = -0.870000
Critical Spearman = 0.475000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
Bin label av atm CO2 av cal !drought model-est !drought
(ppmv) (%) (%)
2001.79 368.31 56.46 63.555
2001.62 369.557 74.9472 61.27*
2002.62 371.677 53.8102 57.3853
2002.04 372.45 50.4078 55.9688
2003.79 373.203 48.6482 54.589
2003.12 375.163 51.6107 50.9975
2005.79 376.9 68.3181 47.8146**
2004.54 377.74 38.943 46.2753
2007.79 381.245 46.6117 39.8527
2008.79 382.443 44.9443 37.6575
2009.79 384.44 24.4431 33.9982*
2010.79 387.3 25.5753 28.7574
2013.79 393.43 33.6544 17.5247*
2012.54 394.3 14.184 15.9305
2013.62 395.15 0 14.373*
2014.79 395.89 9.9062 13.017
2014.62 397.033 3.60187 10.9225
2015.79 398.095 0.719194 8.97651
2015.62 398.985 0.07 7.34566
2015.12 400.11 0.093889 5.28419
2015.54 401.32 0.07 3.06696
2016.04 402.52 6.68333 0.868065
2015.29 403.26 0.1425 0
2016.12 404.02 7.21125 0
2016.29 407.42 3.895 0
We see as per usual there is a high degree of connection between atm
CO2 and the% of California not in drought. Both stat tests
claim 99% or higher confidence of the link. For each 1 ppmv of CO2 in
the atm the area of Cal not in drought declines by approx 2+-0.3
points.
At atm levels of around 403 ppmv or higher the model predicts
California has some area of drought.
At present (March 2019) about 10% is classified as D0 "abnormally
dry".
--
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08 Apr 2019 2019Q1 $bn disasters NOAA
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As a federal election and what should be the southern wet season approach,
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Catoni
2019-03-12 04:35:28 UTC
Reply
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Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
With the big pineapple delivering a record dump on California this
past month everyone is real glad only 10% of the state is not in
drought.
10 % ? ? ?

Hasn't the southern part of California been in a drought now for a few thousand years? I seem to remember something about a desert out there.

As a matter of fact... when my son in the Canadian military Royal Regiment of Canada flew down there for training at the U.S. military Ft. Irwin National Training Center with the U.S. 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team... he told me it was all drought where he was.

Seems that they call this drought stricken region of Californai....the Mojave Desert.. LOL.......

I remember hearing about the Mojave Desert when I was a kid......and the drought's been going on for thousands of years.... That's one long drought ha, ha, ha,

About 10 % of California... right ?
columbiaaccidentinvestigation
2019-03-12 05:01:07 UTC
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Post by Catoni
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
With the big pineapple delivering a record dump on California this
past month everyone is real glad only 10% of the state is not in
drought.
10 % ? ? ?
Hasn't the southern part of California been in a drought now for a few thousand years? I seem to remember something about a desert out there.
As a matter of fact... when my son in the Canadian military Royal Regiment of Canada flew down there for training at the U.S. military Ft. Irwin National Training Center with the U.S. 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team... he told me it was all drought where he was.
Seems that they call this drought stricken region of Californai....the Mojave Desert.. LOL.......
I remember hearing about the Mojave Desert when I was a kid......and the drought's been going on for thousands of years.... That's one long drought ha, ha, ha,
About 10 % of California... right ?
a place like toronto gets about 32in for a year, places in the mojave get an average that is 6 times less, it would seem logical that drought in that region would be less than average for that region, not just calling it a desert
Bret Cahill
2019-03-12 05:24:08 UTC
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Post by columbiaaccidentinvestigation
Post by Catoni
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
With the big pineapple delivering a record dump on California this
past month everyone is real glad only 10% of the state is not in
drought.
10 % ? ? ?
Hasn't the southern part of California been in a drought now for a few thousand years? I seem to remember something about a desert out there.
As a matter of fact... when my son in the Canadian military Royal Regiment of Canada flew down there for training at the U.S. military Ft. Irwin National Training Center with the U.S. 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team... he told me it was all drought where he was.
Seems that they call this drought stricken region of Californai....the Mojave Desert.. LOL.......
I remember hearing about the Mojave Desert when I was a kid......and the drought's been going on for thousands of years.... That's one long drought ha, ha, ha,
About 10 % of California... right ?
a place like toronto gets about 32in for a year, places in the mojave get an average that is 6 times less, it would seem logical that drought in that region would be less than average for that region, not just calling it a desert
There's some formula for a desert that depends on temperature as well as amount of precipitation.

30 cm of rain in MT is not a desert.

30 cm of rain in AZ _is_ a desert.


Bret Cahill
Catoni
2019-03-30 21:46:14 UTC
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Post by Bret Cahill
Post by columbiaaccidentinvestigation
Post by Catoni
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
With the big pineapple delivering a record dump on California this
past month everyone is real glad only 10% of the state is not in
drought.
10 % ? ? ?
Hasn't the southern part of California been in a drought now for a few thousand years? I seem to remember something about a desert out there.
As a matter of fact... when my son in the Canadian military Royal Regiment of Canada flew down there for training at the U.S. military Ft. Irwin National Training Center with the U.S. 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team... he told me it was all drought where he was.
Seems that they call this drought stricken region of Californai....the Mojave Desert.. LOL.......
I remember hearing about the Mojave Desert when I was a kid......and the drought's been going on for thousands of years.... That's one long drought ha, ha, ha,
About 10 % of California... right ?
a place like toronto gets about 32in for a year, places in the mojave get an average that is 6 times less, it would seem logical that drought in that region would be less than average for that region, not just calling it a desert
There's some formula for a desert that depends on temperature as well as amount of precipitation.
30 cm of rain in MT is not a desert.
30 cm of rain in AZ _is_ a desert.
Bret Cahill
Are you aware that Antarctica is a desert ? ?
Bret Cahill
2019-03-30 22:26:26 UTC
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Did you use socialized medicine like Ayn Rand?
Catoni
2019-03-30 23:34:49 UTC
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Post by Bret Cahill
Did you use socialized medicine like Ayn Rand?
Okay... I take it back. I said that the first week following surgery was literally hell on Earth..... I don't wish that on anyone here... from either side....

But now I'll make an exception for fckuing assholes....you Bret Cahill and Kimmie Horsesmell being the prime examples......
R Kym Horsell
2019-03-12 06:05:02 UTC
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...
Post by columbiaaccidentinvestigation
Post by Catoni
About 10 % of California... right ?
a place like toronto gets about 32in for a year, places in the mojave get an average that is 6 times less, it would seem logical that drought in that region would be less than average for that region, not just calling it a desert
Yes, the definition of "abnormally dry" uses what is "normal"
(i.e. around average) for each area.

For the Mojave what might pass for dry in Canada is normal, abnormal
is much much drier. :)

From the data at the URL given California has been "99% drought free"
(i.e. the D0 area is 1% or less) around 6 months in 100 over
the past 20y meaning the desert areas have been as dry as normal.

At present a chunk are much drier than normal.

--
Partial pressure of carbon dioxide

Location pCO2 (Torr or mmHg)

Outside air - dry air at sea level 0.3 [>.4 post 2010]
Alveolar air 35
Arteriole blood 40
Venous blood 50
Cells 50

-- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pulmonary_gas_pressures
Bret Cahill
2019-03-12 05:19:11 UTC
Reply
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Post by Catoni
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
With the big pineapple delivering a record dump on California this
past month everyone is real glad only 10% of the state is not in
drought.
10 % ? ? ?
Hasn't the southern part of California been in a drought now for a few thousand years? I seem to remember something about a desert out there.
As a matter of fact... when my son in the Canadian military Royal Regiment of Canada flew down there for training at the U.S. military Ft. Irwin National Training Center with the U.S. 4th Stryker Brigade Combat Team... he told me it was all drought where he was.
Seems that they call this drought stricken region of Californai....the Mojave Desert.. LOL.......
I remember hearing about the Mojave Desert when I was a kid......and the drought's been going on for thousands of years.... That's one long drought ha, ha, ha,
About 10 % of California... right ?
A researcher at Brown U. suggested Alzheimers is really stage III diabetes.

They took a retired nursing prof, already on a good diet and exercise routine but with Alzheimers just setting in, and made her diet and exercise routine even stricter.

It stopped and even reversed Alzheimers.

It's easy to get on a good diet. Just go shopping like you usually do except include fresh greens and other RNA containing food. When you get to the check out, take the ice cream, processed food, chips and salty grease out of the shopping cart and put them on the tabloid racks.

A clerk will put them back on the shelf where they belong.
JTEM is Remarkably Flexible
2019-03-13 15:00:51 UTC
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Post by Catoni
Hasn't the southern part of California been in a drought now for a few thousand years?
I seem to remember something about a desert out there.
Los Angeles has been in a drought for more than a century now, if you
consider a shortage of water to be a drought, as it NEVER had sufficient
water resources to support modern growth.



-- --

http://jtem.tumblr.com/post/183400835598
columbiaaccidentinvestigation
2019-03-13 15:20:09 UTC
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Post by JTEM is Remarkably Flexible
Post by Catoni
Hasn't the southern part of California been in a drought now for a few thousand years?
I seem to remember something about a desert out there.
Los Angeles has been in a drought for more than a century now, if you
consider a shortage of water to be a drought, as it NEVER had sufficient
water resources to support modern growth.
-- --
http://jtem.tumblr.com/post/183400835598
So you are making a big deal that water needs a pipeline as the region does not have the specific natural resource, mmmm


Lets apply this to a logic test, you thinking is that x location does not have sufficient amount of natural resource y, and therefore will be doomed in the future, ok lets try this one .... location x' does not have petroleum for its internal combustion powered vehicles , but x' does have ample sunshine and wind energy electric vehicles.

In the case of x' you dont like the use of sunshine and wind even though it is plentiful in the region and petroleum is not..
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