Discussion:
2018 may be #4 but 2019 could break all records
(too old to reply)
M***@kymhorsell.com
2018-12-29 09:00:04 UTC
Permalink
<https://robertscribbler.com/>

2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest; But 2019 Might Break All Records

26 Dec 2018

According to NASA's global monitoring division, the period of Dec
2017 through Nov 2018 was the fourth hottest such time ever
measured in the global climate record. Starting in 1880, the measure
now spans 138 years. And it marks a period of unprecedented rapid
change in the Earth's climate system - driven primarily by fossil fuel
burning and the resulting emission of heat trapping gasses into the
Earth's atmosphere.

Global temperatures 2018 NASA

<Loading Image...
(The above graphic provided by NASA GISS shows the ongoing monthly
warming trend since 1880. Recent record hot years show up in
red. Present 2018 dates and temperatures are indicated by the black
dots and red line near the top of the graph. Image source: NASA.)

NASA's monitor shows 2018 hitting 0.82 degrees Celsius above its own
mid 20th Century baseline for the 12 month time-frame. This puts 2018
about 1.04 C above 1880s averages in the Dec to Nov period
composing NASA's climate year. 2018 is now on track to be the fourth
hottest year behind 2016 (#1), 2017 (#2), and 2015 (#3). As a result,
every year of the past 4 years represents the hottest years ever
recorded since consistent measurements began more than a century ago.

According to every major climate monitoring agency, the uncontested
driver of this warming trend is an ongoing and growing fossil fuel
based greenhouse gas emission. During 2018, atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels rose to an average near 410 parts per mn and carbon
dioxide equivalents, a measure taking into account all greenhouse
gasses, hit near 495 parts per mn. This level of heat trapping
gasses is unprecedented for at least the past 18 mn years and
will result in significant continued warming if they remain or keep rising.

Looking forward, an emerging El Nino combined with these high and
rising levels of heat trapping gasses has the potential to produce
record global temperatures during 2019. According to NOAA, sea surface
temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are presently in the El Nino
range and the climate monitor is predicting a 90% chance of
official El Nino formation during the winter of 2018 with a 60 percent
chance for its continuance during spring.


(Video blog providing in-depth analysis of NASA's most recent global temperature update.)

El Nino is the hot end of the natural variability scale. When combined
with rising atmospheric greenhouse gasses trapping more heat in the
Earth system, it has tended to produce record hot or near record hot
years. 2016 saw a very strong El Nino along with a major new global
temperature milestone in the range of 1.21 C above 1880s
averages. Though the 2019 El Nino is predicted to be milder than the
2016 event, high and rising greenhouse gasses means that a new record
could be breached with temperatures likely to hit a range between 1.17
C and 1.3 C.

With present temperatures now well outside the typical range for the
past 10,000 years following the last ice age, each additional 0.1 C of
warming is likely to bring additional impacts on top of the more
severe weather, worsening fires, rising seas, and ocean health impacts
we have already seen. It is thus the case that the age of human caused
climate change is upon us and that escalating climate action is needed
to prevent a quick ramp to catastrophic events.

--
Upcoming events:
07 Jan 2019 2018 report NOAA
08 Jan 2019 $bn disasters Q4 NOAA

Assaad Razzouk @AssaadRazzouk 26 Dec 2018 18:30Z
[Weather-related insurance claims:]
<Loading Image...>

Gavin Schmidt @ClimateOfGavin 23 Dec 2018 21:37Z
[Sources of GW:]
<Loading Image...>

Robert Rohde @RARohde 23 Dec 2018 13:16Z
[Data consensus:]
<Loading Image...>

[Another comparason of the series:]
<Loading Image...>

Stefan Rahmstorf @rahmstorf 22 Dec 2018 17:17Z
[Avg of ~2000 temp proxies 1AD-present:]
<Loading Image...>

[Fossil subsidies $ per person:]
<Loading Image...>

Libyan oil revenue dips to $2.4 bn in Nov, Energy News, ET ...
indiatimes.com, 28 Dec 2018 19:38Z
Dubai. Libya's oil and gas revenue dipped to $2.4 bn in Nov from
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Business Insider, 28 Dec 2018 20:18Z

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Congo President bans voting in opposition stronghold due to potential Ebola
'disaster'
ABC News, 28 Dec 2018 21:48Z
Almost a mn people are denied the right to vote in the country's first
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officials and experts with the World Health Organisation in saying the Ebola
threat makes voting too dangerous.
[Activists say outgoing Pres Kabila is trying to rig the vote so he
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from ebola and have damaged polling places and govt premises in
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Heatwave conditions continue to sweep across Australia
ABC News/AM, 28 Dec 2018 21:57Z
Temperature records are dropping like flies across the country as heatwave
conditions sweep across our wide, brown land from the North-West to the ...

Powerhouse 3.0 Solar Shingles Head To The Roof
CleanTechnica, 29 Dec 2018 00:05Z
The snail-slow solar shingle race is moving once again, as Real Goods Solar
accepts the first of its $127 mn ...

FEMA revives flood insurance sales after backlash
POLITICO, 29 Dec 2018 00:07Z
The move was a swift change of course after FEMA said that insurers should
no longer sell new policies backed by the flood insurance program during the ...

FEMA and the govt shutdown: Home sales could stall if no federal flood
insurance processed
CBS News, 29 Dec 2018
A prolonged shutdown of FEMA's flood insurance could leave up to 40000 homes
unsold per month, real estate group warns.

Donald Trump: Katy Tur accuses president of military pay rise lie
News.com.au, 29 Dec 2018 02:03Z

Russia builds border fence between Crimea and Ukraine proper
Al Jazeera English, 29 Dec 2018
Crimea's de facto authorities say the fence aims to protect the peninsula's
population from Kiev's 'crazy antics'.

Acclaimed Israeli author Amos Oz dies aged 79
ABC News, 29 Dec 2018 05:09Z
Israeli author Amos Oz, one of the country's most widely acclaimed writers
and a pre-eminent voice in its embattled peace movement, has died after a
battle with cancer, his family announces.

Sears wins reprieve from liquidation as Chairman Lampert makes last-minute
$4.4 bn bid on bankrupt company
CNBC, 29 Dec 2018 02:09Z
Dept store chain Sears won a reprieve from liquidating Fri after
its chairman, Eddie Lampert, submitted a $4.4 bn bid in an effort to
buy the retailer ...

Elon Musk and Tesla have 'outmaneuvered' the SEC, says management guru Jeff
Sonnenfeld
CNBC, 29 Dec 2018 00:09Z
Tesla appointed an Elon Musk "clone" in Larry Ellison, says Yale's Jeff
Sonnenfeld. "The SEC has been had on this one."

Lion Air co-pilot's family sues Boeing over fatal crash
ABC News, 29 Dec 2018 01:45Z
The family of the Indonesian co-pilot of a Lion Air flight that crashed in
Oct, killing all 189 on board, files a wrongful death lawsuit against
Boeing in Chicago, adding to litigation piling up against the manufacturer
in its hometown.

Wells Fargo Agrees to Pay $575 Million to Resolve State Investigations
The New York Times, 28 Dec 2018 17:47Z
Wells Fargo has agreed to pay $575 mn to resolve investigations by all
50 states and Washington, D.C., into a range of practices, the latest
chapter in the ...

Tesla Inc
NASDAQ: TSLA - Closed: 28 Dec, 4:00 pm GMT-5
333.87 USD +17.74 (5.61%) *** up 5.6%!! ***
gordo
2018-12-29 19:01:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
<https://robertscribbler.com/>
2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest; But 2019 Might Break All Records
That is called Global Heating. We could have slowed the heating 30
years ago.
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
26 Dec 2018
According to NASA's global monitoring division, the period of Dec
2017 through Nov 2018 was the fourth hottest such time ever
measured in the global climate record. Starting in 1880, the measure
now spans 138 years. And it marks a period of unprecedented rapid
change in the Earth's climate system - driven primarily by fossil fuel
burning and the resulting emission of heat trapping gasses into the
Earth's atmosphere.
Global temperatures 2018 NASA
<https://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2018/12/Global-temperatures-2018-NASA.png?w=600>
(The above graphic provided by NASA GISS shows the ongoing monthly
warming trend since 1880. Recent record hot years show up in
red. Present 2018 dates and temperatures are indicated by the black
dots and red line near the top of the graph. Image source: NASA.)
NASA's monitor shows 2018 hitting 0.82 degrees Celsius above its own
mid 20th Century baseline for the 12 month time-frame. This puts 2018
about 1.04 C above 1880s averages in the Dec to Nov period
composing NASA's climate year. 2018 is now on track to be the fourth
hottest year behind 2016 (#1), 2017 (#2), and 2015 (#3). As a result,
every year of the past 4 years represents the hottest years ever
recorded since consistent measurements began more than a century ago.
According to every major climate monitoring agency, the uncontested
driver of this warming trend is an ongoing and growing fossil fuel
based greenhouse gas emission. During 2018, atmospheric carbon dioxide
levels rose to an average near 410 parts per mn and carbon
dioxide equivalents, a measure taking into account all greenhouse
gasses, hit near 495 parts per mn. This level of heat trapping
gasses is unprecedented for at least the past 18 mn years and
will result in significant continued warming if they remain or keep rising.
Looking forward, an emerging El Nino combined with these high and
rising levels of heat trapping gasses has the potential to produce
record global temperatures during 2019. According to NOAA, sea surface
temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are presently in the El Nino
range and the climate monitor is predicting a 90% chance of
official El Nino formation during the winter of 2018 with a 60 percent
chance for its continuance during spring.
http://youtu.be/h5o8kMkaIOQ
(Video blog providing in-depth analysis of NASA's most recent global temperature update.)
El Nino is the hot end of the natural variability scale. When combined
with rising atmospheric greenhouse gasses trapping more heat in the
Earth system, it has tended to produce record hot or near record hot
years. 2016 saw a very strong El Nino along with a major new global
temperature milestone in the range of 1.21 C above 1880s
averages. Though the 2019 El Nino is predicted to be milder than the
2016 event, high and rising greenhouse gasses means that a new record
could be breached with temperatures likely to hit a range between 1.17
C and 1.3 C.
With present temperatures now well outside the typical range for the
past 10,000 years following the last ice age, each additional 0.1 C of
warming is likely to bring additional impacts on top of the more
severe weather, worsening fires, rising seas, and ocean health impacts
we have already seen. It is thus the case that the age of human caused
climate change is upon us and that escalating climate action is needed
to prevent a quick ramp to catastrophic events.
---
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Chom Noamsky
2018-12-29 19:06:50 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
<https://robertscribbler.com/>
2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest; But 2019 Might Break All Records
Your favourite children's fantasy writer again?

I guess his career in elves and fairies didn't pay so well.
Catoni
2018-12-29 19:13:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by gordo
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
<https://robertscribbler.com/>
2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest; But 2019 Might Break All Records
That is called Global Heating. We could have slowed the heating 30
years ago.
You seriously believe "Robert Scribbler... scribbling for socialism" ? ?

(Real name: Robert Marston Fannéy...writer of failed Fantasy stories... in more ways than one.. LOL )

Interested in buying a bridge in Brooklyn comrade ? ?
George
2018-12-29 19:25:53 UTC
Permalink
On Sat, 29 Dec 2018 11:13:42 -0800 (PST)
Post by Catoni
Post by gordo
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
<https://robertscribbler.com/>
2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest; But 2019 Might Break All Records
That is called Global Heating. We could have slowed the heating 30
years ago.
You seriously believe "Robert Scribbler... scribbling for socialism" ? ?
(Real name: Robert Marston Fannéy...writer of failed Fantasy
stories... in more ways than one.. LOL )
Interested in buying a bridge in Brooklyn comrade ? ?
30 years same old same old.

Words such as 'likely' and 'might' are NOT in any scientific lexicon.
And neither is 'climate change' or 'global warming' or 'ice age' used
instead of weather.


---
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gordo
2018-12-30 18:23:05 UTC
Permalink
Post by Catoni
Post by gordo
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
<https://robertscribbler.com/>
2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest; But 2019 Might Break All Records
That is called Global Heating. We could have slowed the heating 30
years ago.
You seriously believe "Robert Scribbler... scribbling for socialism" ? ?
(Real name: Robert Marston Fannéy...writer of failed Fantasy stories... in more ways than one.. LOL )
Interested in buying a bridge in Brooklyn comrade ? ?
Would you believe NASA
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

---
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R Kym Horsell
2018-12-30 18:32:40 UTC
Permalink
...
Post by gordo
Would you believe NASA
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
Or, visually for hillbillies:

<https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvGjnV2WoAE2eCG.jpg>
Post by gordo
...
--
[Cartoony and mistookin rivers for oceans:]

Another funny is Liberty Island in New York Harbour over time... no noticable c
hange there either.
That sea level rise better hurry up ... LOL

-- Mr Cartoony, 31 Oct 2018


The Battery (Manhatten):
<https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8518750>
The relative sea level trend is 2.84 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.09 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1856 to 2017 which is equivalent to a change of 0.93 feet in 100 years.

Sandy Hook:
<https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8531680>
The relative sea level trend is 4.06 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.21 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1932 to 2017 which is equivalent to a change of 1.33 feet in 100 years.

I.e. NY harbor is in a river and running around 1/2 the nearby open sea
and it's STILL almost 3 mm/yr.

Hardly "not noticable".
Catoni
2018-12-30 18:56:34 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
...
Post by gordo
Would you believe NASA
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
<https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvGjnV2WoAE2eCG.jpg>
Post by gordo
...
--
[Cartoony and mistookin rivers for oceans:]
New York harbour rises and falls with the tides numb nuts... They have tidal charts for "The Battery" in lower Manhatten.

Which means that sea level rise shoud be quite evident at Liberty Island. The water should be lapping at Liberty's feet by now according to you morons... .... which it isn't.

https://imgur.com/gallery/7L4LQ48

Of course Hansen and Gore think sea level will someday reach her armpits... Idiots..

Kimmie Horse smell is becoming more and more stupid...
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
Another funny is Liberty Island in New York Harbour over time... no noticable c
hange there either.
That sea level rise better hurry up ... LOL
-- Mr Cartoony, 31 Oct 2018
<https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8518750>
The relative sea level trend is 2.84 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.09 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1856 to 2017 which is equivalent to a change of 0.93 feet in 100 years.
<https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=8531680>
The relative sea level trend is 4.06 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
interval of +/- 0.21 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
1932 to 2017 which is equivalent to a change of 1.33 feet in 100 years.
I.e. NY harbor is in a river and running around 1/2 the nearby open sea
and it's STILL almost 3 mm/yr.
Hardly "not noticable".
Really ? ? https://imgur.com/gallery/7L4LQ48
Catoni
2018-12-30 19:01:32 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
...
Post by gordo
Would you believe NASA
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
<https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DvGjnV2WoAE2eCG.jpg>
Post by gordo
...
--
[Cartoony and mistookin rivers for oceans:]
South of the Battery, the river proper ends, meeting the East River to form Upper New York Bay, also known as New York Harbor. Its outflow continues through the Narrows between Brooklyn and Staten Island, under the Verrazzano Bridge, and into Lower New York Bay and the Atlantic Ocean.

Location of the Site in New York (Map). United States Geological Survey. Retrieved December 30, 2014.

Kimmie Horse smell needs to go back to school... and learn the difference between a river and a Bay.
KarlK
2018-12-29 19:58:41 UTC
Permalink
Post by gordo
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
<https://robertscribbler.com/>
2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest; But 2019 Might Break All Records
That is called Global Heating. We could have slowed the heating 30
years ago.
Bullshit gordo.
Post by gordo
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
26 Dec 2018
According to NASA's global monitoring division, the period of Dec
2017 through Nov 2018 was the fourth hottest such time ever
measured in the global climate record. Starting in 1880, the
measure now spans 138 years. And it marks a period of
unprecedented rapid change in the Earth's climate system - driven
primarily by fossil fuel burning and the resulting emission of
heat trapping gasses into the Earth's atmosphere.
Global temperatures 2018 NASA
<https://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2018/12/Global-tempera
tures-2018-NASA.png?w=600> (The above graphic provided by NASA
GISS shows the ongoing monthly warming trend since 1880. Recent
record hot years show up in red. Present 2018 dates and
temperatures are indicated by the black dots and red line near the
top of the graph. Image source: NASA.)
NASA's monitor shows 2018 hitting 0.82 degrees Celsius above its
own mid 20th Century baseline for the 12 month time-frame. This
puts 2018 about 1.04 C above 1880s averages in the Dec to Nov
period composing NASA's climate year. 2018 is now on track to be
the fourth hottest year behind 2016 (#1), 2017 (#2), and 2015
(#3). As a result, every year of the past 4 years represents the
hottest years ever recorded since consistent measurements began
more than a century ago.
According to every major climate monitoring agency, the
uncontested driver of this warming trend is an ongoing and growing
fossil fuel based greenhouse gas emission. During 2018,
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose to an average near 410
parts per mn and carbon dioxide equivalents, a measure taking into
account all greenhouse gasses, hit near 495 parts per mn. This
level of heat trapping gasses is unprecedented for at least the
past 18 mn years and will result in significant continued warming
if they remain or keep rising.
Looking forward, an emerging El Nino combined with these high and
rising levels of heat trapping gasses has the potential to produce
record global temperatures during 2019. According to NOAA, sea
surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are presently in
the El Nino range and the climate monitor is predicting a 90%
chance of official El Nino formation during the winter of 2018
with a 60 percent chance for its continuance during spring.
http://youtu.be/h5o8kMkaIOQ
(Video blog providing in-depth analysis of NASA's most recent
global temperature update.)
El Nino is the hot end of the natural variability scale. When
combined with rising atmospheric greenhouse gasses trapping more
heat in the Earth system, it has tended to produce record hot or
near record hot years. 2016 saw a very strong El Nino along with a
major new global temperature milestone in the range of 1.21 C
above 1880s averages. Though the 2019 El Nino is predicted to be
milder than the 2016 event, high and rising greenhouse gasses
means that a new record could be breached with temperatures likely
to hit a range between 1.17 C and 1.3 C.
With present temperatures now well outside the typical range for
the past 10,000 years following the last ice age, each additional
0.1 C of warming is likely to bring additional impacts on top of
the more severe weather, worsening fires, rising seas, and ocean
health impacts we have already seen. It is thus the case that the
age of human caused climate change is upon us and that escalating
climate action is needed to prevent a quick ramp to catastrophic
events.
---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
Chom Noamsky
2018-12-29 20:30:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by KarlK
Post by gordo
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
<https://robertscribbler.com/>
2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest; But 2019 Might Break All Records
That is called Global Heating. We could have slowed the heating 30
years ago.
Bullshit gordo.
boor-do slowed global heating by moving to Vancouver Island 30 years ago.

I imagine winters are a little more friendly in Black Creek than Lethbridge.
Paul Aubrin
2018-12-29 20:02:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by M***@kymhorsell.com
2018 Likely to be 4th Hottest;
2018 will be the 6th warmest of the last 40 years.
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