k***@gmail.com
2024-09-05 18:31:37 UTC
A surprise result just shot out of one of my AI programs.
Mostly they while away their time scanning that Internet thing for
data and trying to "understand" the world. Understand involves being
able to make accurate predictions. Predictions are statements that
take some data and calculate other data that has been "validated".
Validation involves building a model on some of the available data and
then ensure it actually predicts things by testing it on the rest of
the data. Old-fashioned statistical models are not much good at
prediction because they mostly "remember" the data they were given and
don't have any way to generalise it for new conditions -- even ones
that are only slightly different from the data they were given.
Anyway. The object of their exercise was to predict seaice thickness
given the data they had to hand. For the N Hem this is a little easier
because a greater diversity of data has been gathered for the region.
Using a couple different datasets and some smoothing operations
calculating seaice thickness in the Arctic is fairly straightforward.
But for the Antarctic we have a problem. It hasn't been monitored all
that closely in the past and even now the datasets available are much
less detailed than for the Arctic.
But the AI's have discovered a simple model they can show predicts
Arctic seaice thickness and is validated against a couple different
estimates of thickness produced by the UW and one of my programs
AMAZINGLY also seems to work when transferred to the Antarctic.
The model for the N Hem is thus:
Variable Coeff Stderr Tval Pval
date -0.01994 0.00415 -4.79946 0.00003
logN 1.86036 1.07879 1.72450 0.09296
Narea 0.10751 0.06834 1.57316 0.12419
aravgArcocean 0.11962 0.04633 2.58210 0.01391
CONSTANT 36.10241 10.28203 3.51121 0.00119
The "date" in this case is the year/month given as a number with 2dp.
logN means log(Arc extent in mns km2), Narea is Arc area in mns km2,
aravgArcocean is the avg temp of the Arc ocean as given by the NOAATEMP.
The model for the NH gets the thickness to within +-10% for any given
year in the data and was validated on a 50/50 basis -- i.e. the model
was estimated on the first 1/2 of the dataset and validated on the 2nd
half and still produced numbers within +-20% of the "actual" value.
And the amazing part is when transferred to the Antarctic the numbers
that come out also look amazingly similar in value and trend to the
Arctic. The model doesn't seem to go out of rational range and shows a
gentle decline in seaice thickness as seen in the Arctic.
So we seem to have estimates for seaice in the N and S that look like this:
Year Arcth Antarcth
(m) (m)
1979 2.2950 2.14137
1980 2.2639 2.01899
1981 1.9643 2.051
1982 1.8963 2.06484
1983 2.0675 1.99052
1984 2.0983 2.00235
1985 2.1322 2.01453
1986 2.1629 1.8393
1987 2.1562 1.95019
1988 2.1507 2.07631
1989 2.0805 1.88978
1990 2.1097 1.85941
1991 2.1045 1.8648
1992 2.0251 1.81004
1993 1.9524 1.79669
1994 2.0171 1.87097
1995 1.9117 1.83792
1996 1.8978 1.8109
1997 2.0448 1.7139
1998 1.9721 1.7666
1999 1.9512 1.73691
2000 1.8327 1.74199
2001 1.9736 1.67394
2002 1.8516 1.56555
2003 1.7900 1.73269
2004 1.7579 1.7116
2005 1.7601 1.60587
2006 1.7366 1.54402
2007 1.5263 1.58708
2008 1.6306 1.68118
2009 1.5151 1.61483
2010 1.2694 1.60398
2011 1.2365 1.42929
2012 1.2078 1.55498
2013 1.2962 1.66682
2014 1.4741 1.69367
2015 1.3901 1.56688
2016 1.2918 1.26981
2017 1.1513 1.15035
2018 1.2449 1.17626
2019 1.1730 1.14922
2020 1.2750 1.31146
2021 1.2582 1.25081
2022 1.2552 1.01683
2023 1.3274 0.804207
--
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Mostly they while away their time scanning that Internet thing for
data and trying to "understand" the world. Understand involves being
able to make accurate predictions. Predictions are statements that
take some data and calculate other data that has been "validated".
Validation involves building a model on some of the available data and
then ensure it actually predicts things by testing it on the rest of
the data. Old-fashioned statistical models are not much good at
prediction because they mostly "remember" the data they were given and
don't have any way to generalise it for new conditions -- even ones
that are only slightly different from the data they were given.
Anyway. The object of their exercise was to predict seaice thickness
given the data they had to hand. For the N Hem this is a little easier
because a greater diversity of data has been gathered for the region.
Using a couple different datasets and some smoothing operations
calculating seaice thickness in the Arctic is fairly straightforward.
But for the Antarctic we have a problem. It hasn't been monitored all
that closely in the past and even now the datasets available are much
less detailed than for the Arctic.
But the AI's have discovered a simple model they can show predicts
Arctic seaice thickness and is validated against a couple different
estimates of thickness produced by the UW and one of my programs
AMAZINGLY also seems to work when transferred to the Antarctic.
The model for the N Hem is thus:
Variable Coeff Stderr Tval Pval
date -0.01994 0.00415 -4.79946 0.00003
logN 1.86036 1.07879 1.72450 0.09296
Narea 0.10751 0.06834 1.57316 0.12419
aravgArcocean 0.11962 0.04633 2.58210 0.01391
CONSTANT 36.10241 10.28203 3.51121 0.00119
The "date" in this case is the year/month given as a number with 2dp.
logN means log(Arc extent in mns km2), Narea is Arc area in mns km2,
aravgArcocean is the avg temp of the Arc ocean as given by the NOAATEMP.
The model for the NH gets the thickness to within +-10% for any given
year in the data and was validated on a 50/50 basis -- i.e. the model
was estimated on the first 1/2 of the dataset and validated on the 2nd
half and still produced numbers within +-20% of the "actual" value.
And the amazing part is when transferred to the Antarctic the numbers
that come out also look amazingly similar in value and trend to the
Arctic. The model doesn't seem to go out of rational range and shows a
gentle decline in seaice thickness as seen in the Arctic.
So we seem to have estimates for seaice in the N and S that look like this:
Year Arcth Antarcth
(m) (m)
1979 2.2950 2.14137
1980 2.2639 2.01899
1981 1.9643 2.051
1982 1.8963 2.06484
1983 2.0675 1.99052
1984 2.0983 2.00235
1985 2.1322 2.01453
1986 2.1629 1.8393
1987 2.1562 1.95019
1988 2.1507 2.07631
1989 2.0805 1.88978
1990 2.1097 1.85941
1991 2.1045 1.8648
1992 2.0251 1.81004
1993 1.9524 1.79669
1994 2.0171 1.87097
1995 1.9117 1.83792
1996 1.8978 1.8109
1997 2.0448 1.7139
1998 1.9721 1.7666
1999 1.9512 1.73691
2000 1.8327 1.74199
2001 1.9736 1.67394
2002 1.8516 1.56555
2003 1.7900 1.73269
2004 1.7579 1.7116
2005 1.7601 1.60587
2006 1.7366 1.54402
2007 1.5263 1.58708
2008 1.6306 1.68118
2009 1.5151 1.61483
2010 1.2694 1.60398
2011 1.2365 1.42929
2012 1.2078 1.55498
2013 1.2962 1.66682
2014 1.4741 1.69367
2015 1.3901 1.56688
2016 1.2918 1.26981
2017 1.1513 1.15035
2018 1.2449 1.17626
2019 1.1730 1.14922
2020 1.2750 1.31146
2021 1.2582 1.25081
2022 1.2552 1.01683
2023 1.3274 0.804207
--
[RECORD!]
South Korea sees highest average summer temperature on record
Channel NewsAsia Singapore, 05 Sep 2024 06:21Z
SEOUL. South Korea recorded its highest average summertime temperature since
such records began half a century ago, the ...
Phoenix set to break record for 110-degree days as extreme heat plagues West
Coast
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Extreme late-season heat is plaguing the West Coast from Los Angeles to
Seattle with heat alerts issued for more than 65 mn Americans across
six states
DOJ Bombshell Alleges MAGA Media Group Is Backed by Russian Money
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Russia warns response to US sanctions on RT will make `everyone shudder'
Al Jazeera English, 05 Sep 2024 08:41Z
US says Russia funded media company that paid right-wing influencers
mns for videos
CBS News, 04 Sep 2024 22:37Z
DOJ announces new crackdown on Russian disinformation in 2024 election
Politico, 04 Sep 2024 19:34Z
US accuses Russia of sprawling election interference campaign, seizes
dozens of fake sites
CBS News, 04 Sep 2024 19:35Z
Climate impacts are crippling insurance and Big Oil must pay up
Eco-Business, 05 Sep 2024 03:17Z
From Greek wildfires to African floods, the costs of extreme weather is
making insurance unsustainable.
Building block of life found in sample from asteroid Ryugu
Space.com, 21 Mar 2023
The discovery of the nucleobase uracil is a big step forward for astrobiology.
One of the 4 nucleobases of RNA has been discovered in samples retrieved
from the asteroid Ryugu, providing the strongest evidence yet that the
organic building blocks for life on Earth came from space.
Mediterranean, it's a broth! Severe weather in many regions
Meteo Giornale, 05 Sep 2024 12:42Z
The Mediterranean is experiencing a significant increase in extreme weather
phenomena, making it one of the main global centers of atmospheric turbulence.
[Plant Food!]
Extreme weather impacts agriculture in Hungary
FreshPlaza, 05 Sep 2024 11:42Z
This summer, Europe's agriculture faced challenges due to extreme weather
conditions, leading to crop failures and an increase in food prices.
US Sen. Peter Welch celebrates 60th anniversary of landmark Wilderness Act
Brattleboro Reformer, 05 Sep 2024 16:02Z
Vt., is celebrating this week's 60th anniversary of President Lyndon B.
Johnson signing the Wilderness Act of 1964, ...
`Detrimental impact': Farmers push back on climate report
AFR, 05 Sep 2024 08:35Z
The Climate Change Authority review sparked criticism from the agricultural
sector over a call for large-scale forestation.
Queensland may need to re-think power grid to accommodate all-EV 2036 goal,
inquiry hears
ABC News, 05 Sep 2024 07:00Z
The state govt sets an ambitious goal of electric
vehicles making up 50 per cent of new car sales by 2030, and 100 per cent
by 2036.
Climate insurance market set to double by 2030
Insurance Asia, 05 Sep 2024 03:11Z
The premium revenue for commercial climate insurance solutions is expected
to more than double by 2030, growing from $28b (EUR24b to EUR25b) in 2022 to
$66b...
How to get the housing we need: healthy, affordable and resilient to climate
change
The Conversation, 05 Sep 2024 03:11Z
We know what needs to be done, but it depends on the political will to act.
And some states and territories have failed to adopt actions to improve
housing...
Snowy 2.0 more resilient to climate change but faces snow decline,
hydrologist says
ABC News, 05 Sep 2024 05:07Z
A hydrologist says while the Snowy 2.0 pumped-hydro scheme will be more
resilient to climate change than its predecessor, ...
[Prev conservative govts went "all in" on trying to reproduce the
success of a post-WWII mega-project, thinking it was a sure thing.
Turns out everything has changed since the 1950s and it's likely to be
another big waste of public money].
[MIA:]
French industry fears inertia on key energy, climate dossiers
EURACTIV, 05 Sep 2024 04:05Z
Untreated dossiers like hydrogen, nuclear energy, and carbon capture are
piling up on the desks of absent ministers, as ...
Africa: Belief in Alien Visits to Earth Is Spiralling Out of Control -
Here's Why That's So Dangerous
AllAfrica.com, 04 Sep 2024 12:04Z
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increasingly popular. Around a fifth of UK citizens believe Earth has been
visited by extraterrestrials, and an estimated 7% ...