k***@gmail.com
2024-07-20 08:17:37 UTC
A recent paper has found one of the big climate models over-estimates
how white seaice is by 5% meaning the earth is likely to warm about
10% more than the old version of the model predicts for a CO2
doubling.
Climate models underestimate sea ice melt and global warming
earth.com, 19 Jul 2024
Recent research uncovers inaccuracies in climate models' ice albedo
estimations, affecting global warming predictions.
...
The researchers discovered that the E3SM incorrectly magnified the
level of sunlight reflection from the ice, causing a miscalculation in
predicting the planet's warming.
A 5% change to a value that old textbooks put as "30%" doesn't sound
like much, but as usual even little changes have big effects when
we're talking about a sun that warms the earth to the tune of an avg
1/2 a 1-bar radiator for every m2 over the course of a year. The earth
has a LOT of m2.
The old MacKay and Khalil 1d climate model from the 1980s can be
pressed into service to calculate what a change of -5% to the earth's
albedo means.
Here's the little table:
Code dalb CO2 surftemp(C) relpreind
preind 0.1 280 16.0174 <-- pre industrial numbers
now .10 422 17.1291 1.1117 <-- what the earth should be doing now
.009 0.109 560 17.2564
.008 0.108 560 17.33
.007 0.107 560 17.4056
.006 0.106 560 17.4788
.005 0.105 560 17.5537
.004 0.104 560 17.6286
.003 0.103 560 17.7017
.002 0.102 560 17.7763
.001 0.101 560 17.8491
0 0.1 560 17.9231 1.9057 <-- with prev estimated albedo
-.001 0.099 560 17.9978
-.002 0.098 560 18.0709
-.003 0.097 560 18.1441
-.004 0.096 560 18.2183
-.005 0.095 560 18.2908 2.2734 <-- with new estimated albedo
-.006 0.094 560 18.3641
-.007 0.093 560 18.438
-.008 0.092 560 18.5109
-.009 0.091 560 18.5841
So the M&K model predicts pre-industrial surf temps with 280 ppmv of
atm CO2 would be around 16C. Running the model out to around now with
420 ppmv atm CO2 predicts current temps should be around 1.1C above
pre-ind temps. Check with all the standard datasets and you will find
the last couple years have averaged around that value. Big surprise.
We are presently 75% of the way along to a CO2 doubling with no real
end in sight to how high CO2 will go with Big Fossil's not-so-secret
plan to keep on killing the planet until they extract every possible
dime from their operations.
The M&K model predicts atm CO2 at 2x pre-ind (i.e. 560 ppmv) will have
an assoc surf temp around 1.9C above pre-ind values.
But with the new estimate of seaice albedo jammed in there that jacks
up another ~.4C to around +2.3C.
If you wonder what life at 1000 ppmv might look like when all the oil
is gone in around 50 years time, the model says surf temps will avg
around 20C -- about 4C above pre-ind values. There's only an big
up-side if we fall back to burning coal for the 500y after that. The
model predicts at 3000 ppmv atm CO2 surf temps average 23.6C -- around
7.6C above pre-ind temps.
--
Climate crimes must be brought to justice
UNESCO 26 June 2023
Climate denial has increased the risk of catastrophic global change. Should
international criminal law be used against those who promote ...
11 dead, over 30 missing after China bridge collapse
Radio France Internationale, 20 Jul 2024 05:21Z
Eleven people are dead and more than 30 remain missing after a bridge in
northern China collapsed amid torrential rains, ...
Chart: 85 % of new electricity built in 2023 came from renewables
Canary Media, 19 Jul 2024 08:05Z
Finally, we suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the
warmest year on record. Without inside information, that would be a
dangerous prediction, but we proffer it because it is unlikely that
the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of
an El Nino - like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely
qualified as an El Nino - should be sufficient for record global
temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global
temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is
our estimate of preindustrial temperature.
-- J Hansen et al, newsletter 23 Sep 2022
Extreme heat response extended in Edmonton as smoke moves in
CTV News, 19 Jul 2024 21:07Z
The City of Edmonton extended its extreme heat response Fri, with
temperatures into the 30s expected to last over the ...
[The diff between 78yo and 81yo is minimal:]
Trump Can't Help Himself. Will That Help Him Win?
NYT, 20 Jul 2024 0:20Z
Did the Media Actually Listen to Trump's Bonkers RNC Speech?
The New Republic, 19 Jul 2024 20:20Z
A Party of Precarious Manhood, Led by a Blithering Idiot
The American Prospect, 19 Jul 2024 14:20Z
Power shutoffs loom for 7 California counties as PG&E predicts fire
conditions in Central Valley
Sacramento Bee, 19 Jul 2024 22:22Z
PG&E said it cut electricity to 16,000 California customers on Sat due
to dry conditions and potential high winds.
California's grid passed the reliability test this heat wave. It's all about
giant batteries
Sacramento Bee, 16 Jul 2024 12:11Z
Officials say about 1000s of MWs of new solar and battery storage
have made the grid more resilient to blackouts.
Jail terms for UK climate activists stoke protest rights fears
The Express Tribune, 20 Jul 2024 03:20Z
Campaigners have voiced fears for the right to peaceful protest in the
UK after 5 climate activists received hefty prison sentences for
planning...
[Even *planning* a climate protest now attracts multi-year jail sentence
in The Clown Kingdom].
Jail for holding a placard? Protest over the climate crisis is being
brutally suppressed
The Guardian, 13 Apr 2024 16:43Z
The legal repression of activism has been fast and frightening, yet it won't
make protesters disappear and only sows division.
How Game Theory and AI Have Raised the Stakes in Top-Level Poker
Sci Am, 16 Jul 2024
AI's `Oppenheimer moment': autonomous weapons enter the battlefield
The Guardian, 15 Jul 2024
Lawsuit claims to show CenterPoint has one of country's least reliable power
grids
KHOU.com, 19 Jul 2024 23:22Z
Many employees don't know how they're going to pay bills this month after
Beryl causes long-term power outages at Houston-area businesses
KHOU.com, 18 Jul 2024 04:19Z
[Close Enough!]
More than 40K still without power as CenterPoint meets 98% restoration
Houston Chronicle, 17 Jul 2024 23:07Z
Less than 100k CenterPoint customers still without power, 8 days later
Houston Chronicle, 16 Jul 2024 19:27Z
Texas Windstorm Insurance Association weighing 10% rate increase in wake of
extreme weather events
Houston Chronicle, 16 Jul 2024 17:36Z
Many insurance companies have raised rates or pulled back in Texas, due in
part to extreme weather events such as Hurricane ...
Europe Set to Break Tourism Revenue Record with ?800 Billion in 2024
Big News Network.com, 19 Jul 2024 21:20Z
Europe is set to receive a record 800 bn euros from tourism this year
with high summer temperatures steep prices for luxury hotels and ...
Twelve charts that show how Australia's population changed over 120 years
ABC News, 19 Jul 2024 20:20Z
Over the last 120 years, Australia's population has become more
diverse, increasingly urbanised, older and less likely to have
children. That's according to new demographic data issued by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics.
how white seaice is by 5% meaning the earth is likely to warm about
10% more than the old version of the model predicts for a CO2
doubling.
Climate models underestimate sea ice melt and global warming
earth.com, 19 Jul 2024
Recent research uncovers inaccuracies in climate models' ice albedo
estimations, affecting global warming predictions.
...
The researchers discovered that the E3SM incorrectly magnified the
level of sunlight reflection from the ice, causing a miscalculation in
predicting the planet's warming.
A 5% change to a value that old textbooks put as "30%" doesn't sound
like much, but as usual even little changes have big effects when
we're talking about a sun that warms the earth to the tune of an avg
1/2 a 1-bar radiator for every m2 over the course of a year. The earth
has a LOT of m2.
The old MacKay and Khalil 1d climate model from the 1980s can be
pressed into service to calculate what a change of -5% to the earth's
albedo means.
Here's the little table:
Code dalb CO2 surftemp(C) relpreind
preind 0.1 280 16.0174 <-- pre industrial numbers
now .10 422 17.1291 1.1117 <-- what the earth should be doing now
.009 0.109 560 17.2564
.008 0.108 560 17.33
.007 0.107 560 17.4056
.006 0.106 560 17.4788
.005 0.105 560 17.5537
.004 0.104 560 17.6286
.003 0.103 560 17.7017
.002 0.102 560 17.7763
.001 0.101 560 17.8491
0 0.1 560 17.9231 1.9057 <-- with prev estimated albedo
-.001 0.099 560 17.9978
-.002 0.098 560 18.0709
-.003 0.097 560 18.1441
-.004 0.096 560 18.2183
-.005 0.095 560 18.2908 2.2734 <-- with new estimated albedo
-.006 0.094 560 18.3641
-.007 0.093 560 18.438
-.008 0.092 560 18.5109
-.009 0.091 560 18.5841
So the M&K model predicts pre-industrial surf temps with 280 ppmv of
atm CO2 would be around 16C. Running the model out to around now with
420 ppmv atm CO2 predicts current temps should be around 1.1C above
pre-ind temps. Check with all the standard datasets and you will find
the last couple years have averaged around that value. Big surprise.
We are presently 75% of the way along to a CO2 doubling with no real
end in sight to how high CO2 will go with Big Fossil's not-so-secret
plan to keep on killing the planet until they extract every possible
dime from their operations.
The M&K model predicts atm CO2 at 2x pre-ind (i.e. 560 ppmv) will have
an assoc surf temp around 1.9C above pre-ind values.
But with the new estimate of seaice albedo jammed in there that jacks
up another ~.4C to around +2.3C.
If you wonder what life at 1000 ppmv might look like when all the oil
is gone in around 50 years time, the model says surf temps will avg
around 20C -- about 4C above pre-ind values. There's only an big
up-side if we fall back to burning coal for the 500y after that. The
model predicts at 3000 ppmv atm CO2 surf temps average 23.6C -- around
7.6C above pre-ind temps.
--
Climate crimes must be brought to justice
UNESCO 26 June 2023
Climate denial has increased the risk of catastrophic global change. Should
international criminal law be used against those who promote ...
11 dead, over 30 missing after China bridge collapse
Radio France Internationale, 20 Jul 2024 05:21Z
Eleven people are dead and more than 30 remain missing after a bridge in
northern China collapsed amid torrential rains, ...
Chart: 85 % of new electricity built in 2023 came from renewables
Canary Media, 19 Jul 2024 08:05Z
Finally, we suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the
warmest year on record. Without inside information, that would be a
dangerous prediction, but we proffer it because it is unlikely that
the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of
an El Nino - like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely
qualified as an El Nino - should be sufficient for record global
temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global
temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is
our estimate of preindustrial temperature.
-- J Hansen et al, newsletter 23 Sep 2022
Extreme heat response extended in Edmonton as smoke moves in
CTV News, 19 Jul 2024 21:07Z
The City of Edmonton extended its extreme heat response Fri, with
temperatures into the 30s expected to last over the ...
[The diff between 78yo and 81yo is minimal:]
Trump Can't Help Himself. Will That Help Him Win?
NYT, 20 Jul 2024 0:20Z
Did the Media Actually Listen to Trump's Bonkers RNC Speech?
The New Republic, 19 Jul 2024 20:20Z
A Party of Precarious Manhood, Led by a Blithering Idiot
The American Prospect, 19 Jul 2024 14:20Z
Power shutoffs loom for 7 California counties as PG&E predicts fire
conditions in Central Valley
Sacramento Bee, 19 Jul 2024 22:22Z
PG&E said it cut electricity to 16,000 California customers on Sat due
to dry conditions and potential high winds.
California's grid passed the reliability test this heat wave. It's all about
giant batteries
Sacramento Bee, 16 Jul 2024 12:11Z
Officials say about 1000s of MWs of new solar and battery storage
have made the grid more resilient to blackouts.
Jail terms for UK climate activists stoke protest rights fears
The Express Tribune, 20 Jul 2024 03:20Z
Campaigners have voiced fears for the right to peaceful protest in the
UK after 5 climate activists received hefty prison sentences for
planning...
[Even *planning* a climate protest now attracts multi-year jail sentence
in The Clown Kingdom].
Jail for holding a placard? Protest over the climate crisis is being
brutally suppressed
The Guardian, 13 Apr 2024 16:43Z
The legal repression of activism has been fast and frightening, yet it won't
make protesters disappear and only sows division.
How Game Theory and AI Have Raised the Stakes in Top-Level Poker
Sci Am, 16 Jul 2024
AI's `Oppenheimer moment': autonomous weapons enter the battlefield
The Guardian, 15 Jul 2024
Lawsuit claims to show CenterPoint has one of country's least reliable power
grids
KHOU.com, 19 Jul 2024 23:22Z
Many employees don't know how they're going to pay bills this month after
Beryl causes long-term power outages at Houston-area businesses
KHOU.com, 18 Jul 2024 04:19Z
[Close Enough!]
More than 40K still without power as CenterPoint meets 98% restoration
Houston Chronicle, 17 Jul 2024 23:07Z
Less than 100k CenterPoint customers still without power, 8 days later
Houston Chronicle, 16 Jul 2024 19:27Z
Texas Windstorm Insurance Association weighing 10% rate increase in wake of
extreme weather events
Houston Chronicle, 16 Jul 2024 17:36Z
Many insurance companies have raised rates or pulled back in Texas, due in
part to extreme weather events such as Hurricane ...
Europe Set to Break Tourism Revenue Record with ?800 Billion in 2024
Big News Network.com, 19 Jul 2024 21:20Z
Europe is set to receive a record 800 bn euros from tourism this year
with high summer temperatures steep prices for luxury hotels and ...
Twelve charts that show how Australia's population changed over 120 years
ABC News, 19 Jul 2024 20:20Z
Over the last 120 years, Australia's population has become more
diverse, increasingly urbanised, older and less likely to have
children. That's according to new demographic data issued by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics.