Monitoring "progress" to 2050 : CO2

[N_Cook]

Still increasing projection.
For each of these graphical monthly outputs, I do a scale-matched blink
comparison for any changes in the earlier data.

For Mauna Loa data output 12 September 2024 at
Loading Image...

and the earlier tabulated data

Using the off-line javascript curve-fitter at statpages.info
Of curve types , linear=no acceleration, exponential=increasing
acceleration, quadratic=fixed acceleration, indicial= falling
acceleration; indicial was best fit by R^2 factor again, but only very
marginally over the quadratic and exponential forms.

then adding yearly sine component,
y= a + b*x^c + d*sin(e*x+f)*(1+g*x)

where x is year minus 2000 for data subset start year of 2003 to
avoid the decade of post-Pinatubo geodata recovery, 6
figures retained for anyone else repeating/checking this exercise (bear
in mind the graphical most recent data )
For Sep 2024 output
a= 371.172854
b= 1.093029
c= 1.213265
d= 3.001445
e= 6.264848
f= 6.409606
g= -0.001869

For Aug 2024 output
a= 371.163595
b= 1.095449
c= 1.212576
d= 2.997818
e= 6.264978
f= 6.408366
g= -0.001743

previous history for the sine form of indicial curve type, ignoring the
annual sine component here
To 2050 ,for Sep 2024 output= 497.046 ppm ( +0.07 ppm)
To 2050 ,for Aug 2024 output= 496.976 ppm (increment +0.44 ppm)
To 2050 ,for Jul 2024 output= 496.533 ppm (increment +0.51 ppm)
To 2050 ,for Jun 2024 output= 496.020 ppm ( +0.28 ppm)
To 2050 ,for May 2024 output= 495.737 ppm ( +0.09 ppm)
To 2050 ,for Apr 2024 output= 495.646 ppm ( -0.18 ppm)
To 2050 ,for Mar 2024 output= 495.827 ppm ( -0.15 ppm)
To 2050 ,for Feb 2024 output= 495.979 ppm ( -0.24 ppm)
To 2050 ,for Jan 2024 output= 496.222 ppm ( -0.05 ppm)
To 2050, for Nov 2023 output= 496.274ppm (-0.01 )
To 2050, for Nov 2023 output= 496.286ppm (-0.20 )
To 2050, for Oct 2023 output= 496.481ppm (-0.24 )
To 2050, for Sep 2023 output= 496.723ppm (-0.26 but partial data
revisionism )
To 2050, for Aug 2023 output= 496.981ppm (+0.35 )
To 2050, for Jul 2023 output= 496.638ppm (+0.46 )
To 2050, for Jun 2023 output= 496.18 ppm ( +0.27 )
To 2050, for May 2023 output =495.91 ppm (-0.10)
To 2050, for Apr 2023 output =496.01 ppm (-0.80)
To 2050, for Mar 2023 output =496.81 ppm (-0.79)
To 2050, for Feb 2023 output =497.60 ppm (-0.67)
To 2050, for Jan 2023 output =498.27 ppm (-0.28)
To 2050, for Dec 2022 output =498.55 ppm (-0.27)
To 2050, for Nov output =498.82 ppm ( -0.49)
To 2050 ,for Oct output=499.31 ppm (-0.32)
To 2050 ,for Sept output=499.63 ppm (-0.04)
To 2050 , for August output= 499.67 ppm (+0.20)
July 2022 output data , to 2050 , 499.47 ppm (+0.04)
June 2022 output data , to 2050 , 498.43 ppm (+0.15)
May 2022 output To 2050 , 498.28 ppm (-0.39)
April output to 2050, 498.67 ppm (-0.83)
March output to 2050, 499.5 ppm (-0.20)
Feb output was 499.7 (-15.55)
Jan 2022 output was 515.25

[citizen winston smith]

Post by N_Cook
Jan 2022 output was 515.25

CO2 PPM during our most fecund geologic epochs was over 3,000 PPM,
clownshow.

[R Kym Horsell]

Post by citizen winston smith

Post by N_Cook
Jan 2022 output was 515.25

CO2 PPM during our most fecund geologic epochs was over 3,000 PPM,
clownshow.

Just no mammals, right?

[citizen winston smith]

Post by R Kym Horsell

Post by citizen winston smith

Post by N_Cook
Jan 2022 output was 515.25

CO2 PPM during our most fecund geologic epochs was over 3,000 PPM,
clownshow.

Just no mammals, right?

Dead wrong!

https://www.britannica.com/science/Tertiary-Period/The-rise-of-mammals

The most spectacular event in Cenozoic terrestrial environments has been
the diversification and rise to dominance of the mammals. From only a
few groups of small mammals in the late Cretaceous that lived in the
undergrowth and hid from the dinosaurs, more than 20 orders of mammals
evolved rapidly and were established by the early Eocene. Although there
is some evidence that this adaptive radiation event began well before
the end of the Cretaceous, rates of speciation accelerated during the
Paleocene and Eocene epochs.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10963587/

We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late
Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago),
and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been
caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and
metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial.

You need to do some homework before you pop off again, peehole stretcher.

[R Kym Horsell]

Post by citizen winston smith

Post by R Kym Horsell

Post by citizen winston smith

Post by N_Cook
Jan 2022 output was 515.25

CO2 PPM during our most fecund geologic epochs was over 3,000 PPM,
clownshow.

Just no mammals, right?

Dead wrong!

...

Post by citizen winston smith
We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late

...

2000 is not 3000 clownshow.


--
Age (mn y) atm CO2 ext rate model-est
(rel now) %genera ext rate
-10 1.17933 2.06767 1.16133
-15 1.30199 2.29323 2.00115
-27 1.46844 5.58271 3.14078
-35 1.75146 8.35734 5.07853
-47 1.92988 7.98761 6.30012
-110 2.04695 3.54135 7.10166
-94 2.19502 8.88502 8.11545
-119 2.39967 10.4165 9.51662
-150 2.63641 9.79616 11.1375
-159 2.81913 9.28572 12.3885
-162 3.04563 4.82972 13.9393*
-166 3.27991 5.91923 15.5434*
-249 3.48535 16.5902 16.9499
-253 3.64985 28.3083 18.0762*
-254 3.77971 25.5551 18.9653*

y = 6.84669*x + -6.91318
beta in 6.84669 +- 2.93244 90% CI
P(beta>0.000000) = 0.999413
r2 = 0.568059
calculated Spearman corr = 0.742857
Critical Spearman = 0.623000 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_related


I.e. for each 280 ppmv extinction rate goes up 6.8+-2.9 pct points.
Changes in level of atm CO2 in paleo record explains 57% of ext rate
variations.

Extinction rates:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Extinction_intensity.svg

Atm CO2:
Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for the last 500 million years
Daniel H. Rothman
PNAS April 2, 2002 99 (7) 4167-4171; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.022055499
Fig 4.

[citizen winston smith]

Post by R Kym Horsell

Post by citizen winston smith

Post by R Kym Horsell

Post by citizen winston smith

Post by N_Cook
Jan 2022 output was 515.25

CO2 PPM during our most fecund geologic epochs was over 3,000 PPM,
clownshow.

Just no mammals, right?

Dead wrong!

...

Post by citizen winston smith
We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late

...
2000 is not 3000 clownshow.

AGAIN:



https://www.britannica.com/science/Tertiary-Period/The-rise-of-mammals

The most spectacular event in Cenozoic terrestrial environments has been
the diversification and rise to dominance of the mammals. From only a
few groups of small mammals in the late Cretaceous that lived in the
undergrowth and hid from the dinosaurs, more than 20 orders of mammals
evolved rapidly and were established by the early Eocene. Although there
is some evidence that this adaptive radiation event began well before
the end of the Cretaceous, rates of speciation accelerated during the
Paleocene and Eocene epochs.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10963587/

We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late
Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago),
and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been
caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and
metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial.

You need to do some homework before you pop off again, peehole stretcher.

[R Kym Horsell]

Post by R Kym Horsell

Post by citizen winston smith

Post by R Kym Horsell

Post by citizen winston smith

Post by N_Cook
Jan 2022 output was 515.25

CO2 PPM during our most fecund geologic epochs was over 3,000 PPM,
clownshow.

Just no mammals, right?

Dead wrong!

...

Post by citizen winston smith
We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late

...
2000 is not 3000 clownshow.

...

Did they change that 2 into a 3 in the last 10 min?
Everyone knows mammals kicked off around 230 mn y ago in the late Triassic.
At CO2 then was not 10x "present" levels.

The table from Rothman shows they were high but not THAT high -- less
than 4x present levels.

I know a factor of 2 or 3 is nothing to an outsider scientist or mental
patient.

[citizen winston smith]

Post by R Kym Horsell
Did they change that

https://www.britannica.com/science/Tertiary-Period/The-rise-of-mammals

The most spectacular event in Cenozoic terrestrial environments has been
the diversification and rise to dominance of the mammals. From only a
few groups of small mammals in the late Cretaceous that lived in the
undergrowth and hid from the dinosaurs, more than 20 orders of mammals
evolved rapidly and were established by the early Eocene. Although there
is some evidence that this adaptive radiation event began well before
the end of the Cretaceous, rates of speciation accelerated during the
Paleocene and Eocene epochs.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/10963587/

We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late
Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago),
and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been
caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and
metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial.

You need to do some homework before you pop off again, peehole stretcher.

[Paul Aubrin]

Post by N_Cook
For Mauna Loa data output 12 September 2024 at
https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/co2_trend_mlo.png

Carbon dioxide concentration variations compared with ocean temperature
variations :

https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3sh/derivative/mean:12/mean:14/from:1958/normalise/plot/esrl-co2/derivative/mean:12/mean:14/scale:20/detrend:3/from:1958/normalise

At first glance, temperature variations precede carbon dioxide variations.
With a 6 or 7 months lag, the correlation is quite high (R²=0,47) :

Loading Image...