Monitoring 'progress' to 2050/2100 : Global SST anomaly

[N_Cook]

Continuing rise in projections
Data downloaded 27 September 2024 from
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst4/data/download.html
selecting
HadSST.4.0.1.0_monthly_GLOBE.csv

SST anomaly wrt the 1961 to 1990 average.
Using 260 datapoints from 2003.0 to Aug 2024 to avoid the 10 year
recovery period of geodata, post Mt Pinatubo eruption.
Using offline javascript curvefitter at statpages.info
and curve types linear (no acceleration), exponential (increasing
acceleration), quadratic (constant acceleration), indicial (falling
acceleration)
For data to Aug 2024
Best fit quadratic and 6 figures retained for anyone else
repeating/checking this processing
y= 0.439579 -0.010549*x +0.001178*x*x

where y is Hadley SST anomaly in deg C and x is year minus 2000
Aug 2024 data, output Sep 2024
Projected to 2050, +2.857 deg C
Projected to 2100, +11.165 deg C
For the month on month difference for 2100 projection, from Jun/Jul
2023, +0.67 degC, +0.86, +0.88, +1.60, +0.34, +0.20, +0.33 , +0.19,
+0.11, +0.26, +0.31, -0.20, +0.24, +0.20 degC.

Jul 2024 data, output Aug 2024
Projected to 2050, +2.819 deg C
Projected to 2100, +10.963 deg C

Jun 2024 data, output Jul 2024
Projected to 2050, +2.775 deg C
Projected to 2100, +10.721 deg C

May 2024 data, output Jun 2024
Projected to 2050, +2.809 deg C
Projected to 2100, +10.919 deg C


April 2024 data, output May 2024
Projected to 2050, +2.755 deg C
Projected to 2100, +10.612 deg C

Mar 2024 data, output April 2024 (delayed to early May)
Projected to 2050, +2.706 deg C
Projected to 2100, +10.354 deg C

For Feb 2024 data, output Mar 2024
Projected to 2050, +2.881 deg C
Projected to 2100, +10.245 deg C

Projected to 2050, +2.650 deg C
Jan 2024 data projected to 2100, +10.051 deg C

Projected to 2050, +2.588 deg C
Dec data projected to 2100, +9.722 deg C

For data to Nov 2023
Projected to 2050, +2.550 deg C
Nov o/p projected to 2100, +9.518 deg C
y=0.417237 -0.005692*x +0.000967*x*x

For data to Oct 2023
Best fit quadratic again and 6 figures retained for anyone else
repeating/checking this processing
y=0.408525 -0.004675*x +0.000924*x*x
where y is Hadley SST anomaly in deg C and x is year minus 2000
Projected to 2050, +2.4848 deg C
Nov o/p projected to 2100, +9.181 deg C
[ Still rising. Going by comparing NOAA ONI ENSO index and this SST
record, maximum, neutral and minimum, SST may be somewhere between 1 and
6 months after the relevant ONI month.
Last ONI neutral mar-apr 2023, last minimum ONI apr 2022.]

For data to Sep 2023, best fit quadratic
y= 0.407587 -0.003567*x +0.000874*x*x
Projected to 2050, +2.4142 deg C
to 2100, +8.7909 deg C
[ for the indicial curve fit this time,more conservative for comparison
Projected to 2050, +2.217 deg C
to 2100, +7.5826 deg C
still rising in either case ]

For data to Aug 2023 , best curve fit indicial
y= 0.383174 + 0.001021*x^1.895796
where y is Hadley SST anomaly in deg C and x is year minus 2000
Projected to 2050, +2.081129 deg C
to 2100, +6.701729 deg C

previous month processing for up to July 2023 data
Projected to 2050, +1.940949 deg C
to 2100, +5.844458 deg C

previous month processing for up to June 2023 data
y= 0.377054 +0.001667*x ^1.729662
Projected to 2050, 1.824424 deg C
to 2100, 5.177257 deg C

[Paul Aubrin]

Post by N_Cook
Continuing rise in projections
Data downloaded 27 September 2024 from
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst4/data/download.html
selecting
HadSST.4.0.1.0_monthly_GLOBE.csv
SST anomaly wrt the 1961 to 1990 average.
Using 260 datapoints from 2003.0 to Aug 2024 to avoid the 10 year
recovery period of geodata, post Mt Pinatubo eruption.
Using offline javascript curvefitter at statpages.info
and curve types linear (no acceleration), exponential (increasing
acceleration), quadratic (constant acceleration), indicial (falling
acceleration)
For data to Aug 2024
Best fit quadratic  and 6 figures retained for anyone else repeating/
checking this processing
y= 0.439579 -0.010549*x +0.001178*x*x

Can you tell us with what precision your predicting method fits reality
for each 30 years period starting from 1880 to now ?

[Paul Aubrin]

Post by N_Cook
Continuing rise in projections
Data downloaded 27 September 2024 from
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst4/data/download.html
selecting
HadSST.4.0.1.0_monthly_GLOBE.csv

No statistically significant trend (acceleration) in ocean temperature
variation (speed).
Loading Image...
Low frequency (climate) speed range is within ±0.012 °C/year
Trend line 6.58825e-06 °C/year² explains nothing.

High frequency variations are 2 orders of magnitude greater (±0.6).
Loading Image...

Conclusion : No detectable climate (low frequency) ocean temperature
acceleration.
0.000007 (°C/year²) x 50 year = 0.00035 °C/year << 0.012 °C/year
50 years of accumulated "trend" causes no detectable change in signal.