Discussion:
jul 2024: GL +.68 rel 2000s #2: Copernicus/ESA
(too old to reply)
k***@gmail.com
2024-08-08 10:36:47 UTC
Permalink
<https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-july-2024>

Surface air temperature for July 2024

Highlights for July 2024

Global temperature
* July 2024 was the second-warmest July globally in the data record,
with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 16.91°C, 0.68°C
above the 1991-2020 average for July, and only 0.04°C lower than the
previous high set in July 2023.
* This marks the end of a 13-month period when each month was the
warmest in the ERA5 data record for the respective month of the
year. While unusual, a similar length streak of monthly global
temperature records happened previously in 2015/2016 during the last
strong El Niño event.
* Although July 2024 was not quite as warm as July 2023 on average,
the Earth experienced its 2 hottest days in the ERA5 data
record. The daily global-average temperature reached 17.16°C and
17.15°C in ERA5 on 22 and 23 July. Given the small difference,
similar to the level of uncertainty in the ERA5 data, we cannot say
which of the 2 days was the hottest with complete certainty.
* According to ERA5 data, the month was 1.48°C above the estimated
July average for 1850-1900, the designated pre-industrial reference
period, marking the end of a series of 12 consecutive months at or
above 1.5°C.
* The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (August 2023 -
July 2024) is 0.76°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64°C above
the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
* The year-to-date (Jan-July) global temperature anomaly for 2024
is 0.70°C above the 1991-2020 average, 0.27°C warmer than the same
period in 2023. The average anomaly for the remaining months of this
year would need to drop by at least 0.23°C for 2024 not to be warmer
than 2023. This rarely happened in the entire ERA5 dataset, making
it increasingly likely that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on
record.

Europe and other regions
* The average European temperature for July 2024 was 1.49°C above the
1991-2020 average for July, making the month the second warmest July
on record for Europe after July 2010.
* European temperatures were most above average over southern and
eastern Europe, but near or below average over northwestern Europe.
* Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over the
western United States and western Canada, most of Africa, the Middle
East and Asia, and eastern Antarctica.
* Temperatures were below average over western Antarctica and parts of
the United States, South America, and Australia

Sea surface temperature
* The equatorial Pacific had below-average temperatures, indicating a
developing La Niña, but air temperatures over the ocean remained
unusually high over many regions.
* The sea surface temperature (SST) for July 2024 over 60°S-60°N was
20.88°C, the second-highest value on record for the month, and only
0.01°C below July 2023, which marks the end of a 15-month period
when the SST had been the warmest in the ERA5 data record for the
respective month of the year.

...

--
Coral Sea's hottest summer in 400 years puts Great Barrier Reef on verge of
'in danger' status again
ABC Far North, 07 Aug 2024 15:27Z
Scientists have been able to look at corals like tree rings to work out
how warm the Coral Sea has been each summer across 4 centuries. They
say the results reveal an alarmingly urgent need to turn around the
trajectory of climate change.

Atlantic Ocean Conveyor Likely to Collapse Before 2050, Say Climate Scientists
Discover Magazine, 07 Aug 2024 19:01Z
One of the world's great geophysical phenomena is the flow of warm water,
and associated weather, from the Gulf of Mexico across the Atlantic towards...

[Over 50C is just a number!]
Record 50C temperature increase over Antarctica to shift Australia's weather
patterns
ABC News, 27 Jul 2024
The temperature above the east Antarctic coastline warmed by about 50
degrees Celsius in a week earlier in July. The event, ...

CrowdStrike releases 'embarrassing' root cause analysis into global IT outage
ABC News, 07 Aug 2024 06:18Z
CrowdStrike releases its analysis of last month's global IT outage,
revealing an "embarrassing" mistake experts say first-year programming
students are taught how to avoid.

'Greenwashing on steroids': Logging bosses team up to form new 'healthy
forests' group
ABC News, 07 Aug 2024 18:50Z
Though logging in Victoria has officially ended, the powerful interests
behind it have set up a new organisation to continue the industry,
which experts say amounts to greenwashing.

Society Watch: Drive to make ecocide an international crime gains momentum
Reuters, 20 Feb 2023
In 1998, the destruction of the environment was proposed as an international
crime against ... crimes against humanity, war crimes and the crime ...

Finally, we suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the
warmest year on record. Without inside information, that would be a
dangerous prediction, but we proffer it because it is unlikely that
the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of
an El Nino - like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely
qualified as an El Nino - should be sufficient for record global
temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global
temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is
our estimate of preindustrial temperature.
-- J Hansen et al, newsletter 23 Sep 2022

Israel minister condemned for saying starvation of mns in Gaza might be
`justified and moral'
The Guardian, 08 Aug 2024 01:17Z

Ukrainian troops were seen pushing 6 miles into Russian territory, and the
Kremlin can't decide if it's a 'large-scale provocation' or 'under control'
Business Insider, 08 Aug 2024 05:22Z

Why is the Pentagon's UFO office so clueless about UFOs?
The Hill1, 08 Aug 2024 02:25Z
The All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) -- established in 2022 --
also issued repeated categorical denials of the stunning UFO-related
activities alleged in the Disclosure Act. In a lengthy, ...

Scientists are getting serious about UFOs. Here's why
Science News, 07 Aug 2024 13:29Z
In the decades since, UFOs have often come to be dismissed by scientists as
the province of wackos and thus unworthy of study. The term UFO has a smirk
factor to it, says Iain Boyd, an aerospace ...

Thailand's monks keep committing crimes involving drugs, corruption, and
even murder
ABC/Foreign Correspondent, 07 Aug 2024 18:46Z
Mounting scandals involving Buddhist monks are eroding public faith in
a key pillar of Thai society.

Why it's easier for Queensland copper thieves to get away with it
ABC Radio Brisbane, 07 Aug 2024 04:36Z
Moreton Bay City Council's mayor says the state govt is allowing
a black market trade to go unchecked, and it's hurting everyone from
energy providers to local football clubs.

Australia joins defence exercise in contested South China Sea after
Philippines deal with China to ease tensions
ABC News, 07 Aug 2024 05:35Z
The Australian Defence Force has announced that it will join another
military drill in the contested waters of the South China Sea, where
there have been a series of increasingly dangerous confrontations
between China and the Philippines.

'Garbage' safety culture at Boeing to blame for cabin door blowout
mid-flight, watchdog hears
ABC News, 07 Aug 2024 05:33Z
Workers from the embattled airplane company told the US transport
safety authority a lack of accountability led to safety issues such as
those on the Alaska Airlines plane where a cabin door was missing four
bolts and blew out mid-flight.

Two Victorian Building Authority workers charged by corruption watchdog
ABC News, 07 Aug 2024 06:19Z
The Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission has charged two
Victorian Building Authority employees with criminal offences, over the
alleged assessment of builder registrations in exchange for a financial
benefit.
Paul Aubrin
2024-08-08 12:21:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by k***@gmail.com
July 2024 was the second-warmest July globally in the data record,
with an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 16.91°C, 0.68°C
above the 1991-2020 average for July, and only 0.04°C lower than the
previous high set in July 2023.
Uncertainty on temperatures measured with liquid in glass thermometers :
±0.46 °C.


Sensor measurement uncertainty has never been fully considered in prior
appraisals of global average surface air temperature. The estimated
average ±0.2 C station error has been incorrectly assessed as random,
and the systematic error from uncontrolled variables has been invariably
neglected. The systematic errors in measurements from three ideally
sited and maintained temperature sensors are calculated herein. Combined
with the ±0.2 C average station error, a representative lower-limit
uncertainty of ±0.46 C was found for any global annual surface air
temperature anomaly. This ±0.46 C reveals that the global surface air
temperature anomaly trend from 1880 through 2000 is statistically
indistinguishable from 0 C, and represents a lower limit of calibration
uncertainty for climate models and for any prospective physically
justifiable proxy reconstruction of paleo-temperature. The rate and
magnitude of 20th century warming are thus unknowable, and suggestions
of an unprecedented trend in 20th century global air temperature are
unsustainable.

Loading...