Discussion:
Climate Change Fueling Extreme Heat in Europe and the U.S.
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Unum
2024-08-05 00:36:08 UTC
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https://e360.yale.edu/digest/climate-change-heat-wave-europe-america

New analyses find that warming is fueling severe hot spells on both sides of
the Atlantic this summer, spurring warnings about the need to guard against
increasingly dangerous heat.

On Friday, close to half of Americans will endure heat made three times more
likely by warming, according to a report from Climate Central. Heading into
the weekend, extreme heat will bear down on the Rocky Mountains, the Great
Plains, and much of the Southeast, with high humidity sending the heat index,
an indicator of how hot it feels, above 110 degrees F (43 degrees C) in some
parts.

The U.S. hot spell follows a heat wave that settled over southern Europe in
July, when temperatures topped 104 degrees F (40 degrees C) in parts of Spain
and the Balkans. A new analysis from World Weather Attribution finds the heat
would have been “virtually impossible if humans had not warmed the planet by
burning fossil fuels.”

Heat has proved especially dangerous in Europe, though estimates of heat
deaths vary significantly. Official records tend to undercount such deaths — a
heart attack prompted by a hot spell will be recorded as a heart attack, not a
heat death. Scientists can infer how many people are actually killed by heat
by tallying the number of excess deaths during hot periods, though methods
differ. According to one study, which gauged the effect of even modest
warmth, heat has killed more than 175,000 people in Europe each year, on
average, since 2000.
R Kym Horsell
2024-08-05 05:22:01 UTC
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Post by Unum
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/climate-change-heat-wave-europe-america
New analyses find that warming is fueling severe hot spells on both sides of
the Atlantic this summer, spurring warnings about the need to guard against
increasingly dangerous heat.
On Friday, close to half of Americans will endure heat made three times more
likely by warming, according to a report from Climate Central. Heading into
the weekend, extreme heat will bear down on the Rocky Mountains, the Great
Plains, and much of the Southeast, with high humidity sending the heat index,
an indicator of how hot it feels, above 110 degrees F (43 degrees C) in some
parts.
The U.S. hot spell follows a heat wave that settled over southern Europe in
July, when temperatures topped 104 degrees F (40 degrees C) in parts of Spain
and the Balkans. A new analysis from World Weather Attribution finds the heat
would have been ???virtually impossible if humans had not warmed the planet by
burning fossil fuels.???
Heat has proved especially dangerous in Europe, though estimates of heat
deaths vary significantly. Official records tend to undercount such deaths ??? a
heart attack prompted by a hot spell will be recorded as a heart attack, not a
heat death. Scientists can infer how many people are actually killed by heat
by tallying the number of excess deaths during hot periods, though methods
differ. According to one study, which gauged the effect of even modest
warmth, heat has killed more than 175,000 people in Europe each year, on
average, since 2000.
Even quite "normal" temps promote heart attacks.

States like: Av Temp Heart attacks Linear model
(C) (per 100k)
North.Dakota 4.163050 89.1 91.1264
Wyoming 5.484380 77.7 92.3617*
Wisconsin 6.214460 89.925 93.0443
South.Dakota 7.169680 105.7 93.9373*
New.York 7.780250 98.3 94.5081
Utah 8.876250 84.5 95.5327*
Washington 9.675100 85.7167 96.2796*
Ohio 10.390100 111.1 96.948*
West.Virginia 11.185300 105 97.6914
Virginia 12.456800 96.34 98.8801
Nevada 13.303700 106.85 99.6719
Tennessee 14.607600 112.05 100.891*
Oklahoma 15.589600 114.05 101.809*
Texas 16.981200 96.9 103.11
Mississippi 17.830300 93.35 103.904*
Louisiana 19.376300 109.1 105.349
Florida 21.717000 96.9 107.537*

Model:
y = 9.348852e-01*x + 8.723447e+01
T-test: Pr(beta>0) = 93%
Rank test: Pr(order by temp & order by heart attacks same) = 95%+
R2 = 20%

I.e. each 1C in the US is associated with almost 1 additional heart
attack death per 100k population.
Just the state's temp predicts 20% of heart attack deaths
(i.e. ~6,000 of annual ~30,000).
Kenny McCormack
2024-08-05 19:28:13 UTC
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In article <v8p6po$adj3$***@dont-email.me>,
Unum <***@yourbusiness.com> wrote:
...
Post by Unum
Heat has proved especially dangerous in Europe, though estimates of
heat deaths vary significantly. Official records tend to undercount
such deaths a heart attack prompted by a hot spell will be recorded as
a heart attack, not a heat death. Scientists can infer how many people
are actually killed by heat by tallying the number of excess deaths
during hot periods, though methods differ. According to one study,
which gauged the effect of even modest warmth, heat has killed more
than 175,000 people in Europe each year, on average, since 2000.
One wonders what exactly *would* qualify as a "heat death"?

Isn't it always actually something else?
--
To be evangelical is to spend every waking moment hovering around
two emotional states: fear and rage. Evangelicals are seriously the
angriest and most vicious bunch of self-pitying, constantly-moaning
whinybutts I've ever encountered.
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