k***@gmail.com
2024-09-18 22:51:01 UTC
Reply
PermalinkNYT, 18 Sep 2024 18:39Z
Flooding events around the world share a common factor of an
atmosphere made warmer by climate change. What can be done to ...
Flood Death Toll Rises as Europe Counts Cost of Storm Boris
Mint, 16 Sep 2024 22:34Z
Floods ripped through central Europe killing at least 17 people, as
govts across the region took emergency measures and prepared to spend
100s of mns of euros on the cleanup.
No surprise that a warmer world is a wetter world. The data we've had
for 100+ years shows this pretty clearly, so no surprises. Scientists
have been publicly warning of AGW since the 1980s and even the oil
companies had a good idea of what was coming, according to some recent
insider accounts, in the 1960s.
We can look at the link between temp and precip by US data -- always a
good goto if you want a nice range of conditions and a laudable
ability to measure things:
States like avtemp avprecip Linear model
(C) (mm)
North.Dakota 4.16305 148.368 157.529
Wyoming 5.63131 151.985 183.644
Wisconsin 7.17389 206.069 211.081
Washington 9.37123 308.986 250.164
Ohio 10.3901 316.607 268.286
Virginia 12.6585 341.788 308.632
California 14.6309 190.739 343.714**(v much drier
than model predicts)
Tennessee 15.3328 381.034 356.199
Texas 17.2971 379.155 391.137
Louisiana 19.3763 491.117 428.118
Florida 21.717 452.405 469.751
MODEL:
y = 1.778645e+01*x + 8.348266e+01
beta in 17.7864 +- 6.44885 90% CI
alpha in 83.4827 +- 88.0781
T-test: P(beta>0) = 0.999658
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.890909
Crit val = 0.723500 2-sided at 1%; reject H0:not_connected
r2 = 0.73959675
You can also look at how the global temp affects US precip over time
-- a different kettle of fish from comparing states across decades --
but it should the same kind of thing:
Year Avgglobtemp Avusprecip Linear model
(1/100th rel (mm homog)
1950s)
1897 -10.9167 237.263 243.561
1898 -26.75 240.279 239.937
1899 -17.75 231.762 241.997
1903 -36.4167 243.905 237.724
1904 -46.5833 226.673 235.397
1916 -35.6667 241.493 237.896
1921 -18.5 234.222 241.825
1923 -26.25 252.127 240.051
1933 -29 228.47 239.422
1936 -15.0833 228.54 242.607
1937 -2.9167 249.486 245.391
1941 18.5833 264.641 250.312
1943 8.75 222.446 248.062*
1945 9.0833 269.044 248.138*
1970 2.5 243.967 246.631
1971 -8.25 245.627 244.171
1974 -6.8333 248.624 244.495
1977 17.8333 250.596 250.141
1979 16.5833 270.339 249.854*
1981 32.25 245.805 253.44
1983 31.25 291.65 253.211**
1987 32.1667 242.024 253.421
(random sample of 145y).
MODEL:
Durbin-Watson d = 1.625799
d < dL (1.687439): Positive auto-corr at 5%
(AUTO CORR CORRECTION; estimated rho = 0.187101)
y = 2.288708e-01*x + 2.460590e+02
beta in 0.228871 +- 0.102295 90% CI
alpha in 246.059 +- 2.46965
T-test: P(beta>0) = 0.999838
r2 = 0.10948697
Rank test: calculated Spearman corr = 0.349304
Crit val = 0.306000 2-sided at 5%; reject H0:not_connected
(FOOTNOTE: The "homog" tag, above, means the data have been
homogenised. Homogenisation -- aka "fiddlin widda nummas" -- removes
biases and general noise from the data. It doesn't change the trends
but tends to narrow the uncertainty down. In the case of the US
precip data I'm using -- some old version of the GHCN database -- the
increase in precip with the raw data shows as 0.0908881 +- 0.101967
(90% CI) while the homog version of the data gives 0.143723 +-
0.0673074 (90% CI). These are essentially the same result but the
homog version has error band 35% smaller than the raw data).
Look at the \betas of the 2 models. For the state model it estimates
17 mm extra precip per deg C for the effect of local US temps across
the 48. The other model shows each 1C of global temp gives rise to
23mm of extra US precip. Adding in the error bars these 2 things are
pretty the same.
IOW we can see it coming. 3C of global warming as the scientists have
said for decades will result in an extra 70mm of US precip pa. On
average this is 25% of Florida's rainfall. But the tendency will be
that things move to their extremes -- drier places get even drier and
wetter places will get wetter. And for those places that buck the
trend they will get conditions they are really unprepared for. So
everyone loses.
~ ~ ~
Looking at Europe we can evaluate what has been happening to rainfall
since the 19th cent in at least 3 different ways. All draw the same
conclusion.
First we can just look at the average daily rainfall. Again, the GHCN
is useful for the records of 10s of 1000s of weather stations around
the world since the 19th cent. (I note here NASA has now apparently
taken over management of the GHCN and the URL and data format have
changed radically). Looking at a random 200 European stations from
30-60N and 0-35E shows a strong increase of .0013 +- .00068
mm/d/yr. In 1900 the avg location in Europe was seeing a bit more than
1.9 mm/d of precipitation. That has steadily increased (with lots of
noise for un-homogenised datasets) to around 2.1 mm/d this year.
Doesn't sound like much. But averages hide the huge variations, and
that's what matters in the headlines at the top of this article.
Second, we can look at the maximum rainfall for each day anywhere in
Europe, and see how *that* has changed over the last 100+ years. This
appears more "obviously" threatening. Because, again, there is a
steady increase across the years. The beta here is 0.911976 +-
0.0980806 (90% CI). In 1850 -- according to the 200 selected stations,
most of them long run and many starting in 1750 because rainfall was
one of the first things measured -- the max rainfall event during the
year was 53.5 mm in one day. In 2022 it was 183; 2023 131; and so far
this year it's been 222 in one 24 hrs period. We begin to suspect a
Europe where the wettest location gets 2" in 1 day will look a lot
drier than the Europe that has one of the same locations now getting
almost 8" of rainfall in 24 hrs.
Thirdly, we can look at the distribution of wet days. For each of the
200 stations we can figure out in the past 100+ years what are the 10%
of wettest days every seen at each location. Then we can calculate
how many days in the top10% happened in each year since e.g. 1900. The
average those counts across all 200 stations and plot a graph. Again,
an solid trend is seen. The \beta for that is 0.0641683 +- 0.0141881
(90% CI). In the 1850s around 26.3 days across all the stations saw a
top10 rainfall. By 2023 that had blown out to 37.4 days -- a 42%
increase in "extreme rain".
19th century drains and river engineering can't cope with that.
Europe -- you're not ready. Not that anyone is.
Plots &ct available at
<http://kym.massbus.org/EUROPE/YOU-WET-MESS>
and
<http://kym.sdf-eu.org/EUROPE/YOU-WET-MESS>.
--
Sea surface temperature record in the southwestern Pacific: Coral colony
from Fiji reveals warmest temperatures in over 600 years
Science Daily, 18 Sep 2024 19:27Z
The sea surface temperature in the Fijian archipelago in the southwestern
Pacific is now at its maximum for more than 600 years. This finding is the
result of an international research team's ...
Climate crimes must be brought to justice
UNESCO 26 June 2023
Climate denial has increased the risk of catastrophic global change. Should
international criminal law be used against those who promote ...
[Humans == 40 Gt CO2/yr; volcanoes <0.1 Gt/yr].
Global carbon dioxide emission to the atmosphere by volcanoes
Volcanic CO2 presently represents only 0.22% of anthropogenic emissions but
may have contributed to significant "greenhouse" effects at times in Earth
history.
-- Science Direct
Nigeria warns of possible flooding as Cameroon releases water from dam
The Independent, 18 Sep 2024 15:44Z
Nigeria' has warned of possible flooding in 11 states following the release
of water from a dam in neighboring Cameroon.
Nearly 2 dozen people injured in Southern California wildfires
FOX Weather, 18 Sep 2024 19:31Z
Three major wildfires in Southern California continue to burn 1000s of
acres, destroying buildings and injuring several people.
More hurricanes are lingering for days. These places are most vulnerable.
WaPo, 18 Sep 2024 19:38Z
New research found hurricanes are stalling more often along vulnerable
coastlines, increasing the danger from prolonged rainfall and winds.
America's Oil Country Increasingly Runs on Renewables
NYT, 18 Sep 2024 15:42Z
Texas, the biggest oil-producing state, has turned to solar power and
battery storage to see it through extreme weather.
Phoenix finally snaps record streak of triple-digit temperatures after 113 days
foxweather, 18 Sep 2024 17:41Z
A sigh of relief likely went out across Phoenix on Tue after the city
finally ended its record streak of 100 degrees or ...
Before-and-After Photos Show Unusual Change in World's Largest Hot Desert
Newsweek, 18 Sep 2024 17:41Z
Parts of the Sahara Desert have seen 600% of the average rainfall in
the past 30 days, causing extreme floods.
Methane levels at 800,000-year high, accelerating the sixth extinction
Intellinews on MSN, 18 Sep 2024 19:21Z
Global methane emissions have surged to an 800,000-year high, according to
new research from scientists ...
India coal expansion risks massive methane growth: Report
Phys.org, 18 Sep 2024 19:05Z
India's plans to expand coal mining could double emissions of the potent
greenhouse gas methane from its domestic coal sector ...
[No Soup For You!]
NSW govt successfully appeals light rail business compensation payout
ABC News, 18 Sep 2024 08:32Z
The NSW Court of Appeal overrules an earlier win by businesses who
had argued that delayed works on the light rail line between the
CBD, Randwick and Kingsford had negatively affected them.
Plantation company fined for clearing of 9 stadiums' worth of native
bushland in WA
ABC News, 18 Sep 2024 11:29Z
A Bunbury magistrate fines a business $141,000 for illegally
clearing 16 hectares of land in the state's south west, severely
impacting a rare endangered honeysuckle species.
[Gas Is Next!]
Forced to switch off gas, this small Australian seaside town became a
'microcosm of what the world is trying to do'
ABC News, 18 Sep 2024 18:46Z
When a town in Australia's South West was forced to switch off gas,
residents were given a choice: use bottled gas or electrify. Now,
electricity is providing more energy for Esperance than ever before
and most of it is coming from renewable sources.
Gas project at the centre of Scott Morrison's secret portfolio takeover
scandal receives preliminary rejection
ABC News, 18 Sep 2024 11:26Z
An offshore gas project slated for the New South Wales coast has been
dealt another blow after Industry Minister Ed Husic issued a
preliminary rejection.
[At one point in his PM-ship Morrison took control of several
Ministries -- even unknown to his own Ministers -- apparently with
the aim of ensuring several "big projects" would go ahead].
Cancer deaths in US fell by 33% in 30 years, but alcohol remains a
lesser-known risk factor
CBS News, 18 Sep 2024 18:14Z
Elon Musk's SpaceX satellites an `existential threat to astronomy'
The Telegraph, 18 Sep 2024 08:11Z
Second-gen Starlink satellites leak 30 times more radio interference,
threatening astronomical observations
Phys.org, 18 Sep 2024 17:11Z
US deploys soldiers, rocket systems to Alaska island as Russian military
activity ramps up in region
CBS News, 7 hours ago
Russia submarines and naval ships cross into buffer zone off Alaska, US
Coast Guard says
CBS News, 2 days ago