Discussion:
2 dead, hundreds rescued in 'dangerous' New Mexico flash flooding
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Normal Cycles
2024-10-21 20:31:57 UTC
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At least two people have been killed due to overnight rainfall and
flooding Saturday in Roswell, New Mexico, according to New Mexico State
Police. Nearly 300 people have been rescued by the National Guard, city
officials say.

"Many motorists became stranded when their vehicles got stuck in flood
waters on many streets," the City of Roswell said Sunday in a statement to
ABC News. "Some people had to await rescue on top of their vehicles that
were covered by water. Some vehicles were swept by the water into the
river channel."

Search-and-rescue efforts continued Sunday morning, as the city's police
and fire departments collaborated with state police, the National Guard
and other local agencies.

A Flash Flood Emergency was declared for the city late Saturday, the
National Weather Service reported -- the highest tier of flash flood
warning.

Between 4 and 9 inches of rain fell in parts of the state, prompting the
NWS to declare a "Particularly Dangerous Situation" alert -- a warning
issued when a flash flood emergency occurs in an area of significant
population.

The rain brought heavy damage to homes and businesses overnight, the city
said, with many reporting flood waters entering buildings.

The NWS issued a flood warning for east central, northeast and southeast
New Mexico through the early hours of Monday. A flash flood watch remains
in effect for eastern New Mexico through Sunday night.

Additional rain is expected through Sunday, falling on ground already
saturated by Saturday's downpours and thus raising the risk of further
flash flooding.

Roswell was inundated with an all-time record daily rainfall of 5.78
inches -- higher than the previous record of 5.65 inches set on Nov. 1,
1901.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/new-mexico-flash-flooding-prompts-dangerous-
situation-warning/story?id=114964051
R Kym Horsell
2024-10-22 02:24:11 UTC
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Post by Normal Cycles
At least two people have been killed due to overnight rainfall and
flooding Saturday in Roswell, New Mexico, according to New Mexico State
Police. Nearly 300 people have been rescued by the National Guard, city
officials say.
...

It's a normal upward-only cycle for the last 150y.
Stop burning fossil fuels and then we can talk again.

From the GHCN data (historical data from 10s of 1000s of weather stations --
the database was out of action for 1m when Hurricane Helene hit NC)
we can look at the number of extreme events in the US since the 19th cent.
An "extreme event" here means some value of windspeed, snowfall, temp or
precip hit the "one percent" region -- either 1 in 100 high val or 1 in
100 low val.
I look at all the types of data for a random 1000 stations across
the US and average to get a numberof "extreme events per year"
for a typical/average location in the US.
I group the years into 6y bins to avoid noise from the El Nino/La Nina
cycle (a phase-locked thing recently found to be related to the orbit of
Jupiter).

We find:

Period Number of times in a year
(6y) the avg US weather station saw
a 1% level exceeded
(tmax, tmin, prcp, wspd, snow)
1896 2.80324
1902 2.83256
1908 2.74004
1914 2.86562
1920 2.86625
1926 2.79159
1932 2.7929
1938 2.87037
1944 2.83225
1950 2.86344
1956 3.00007
1962 3.13462
1968 3.27571
1974 3.31961
1980 3.10281
1986 3.32076
1992 3.21434
1998 3.0724
2004 3.06471
2010 3.39762
2016 3.42445


Simple stats package says
Beta = .005 +- .001 90% CI
T-test: Pr(Beta>0) = 99.99%
Rank test: Pr(increasing trend) > 99%

I.e. for each year the number of extreme events
around a typical place in the US has been going up .005 times a year each year.
Great for storm chasers and insurance companies.
Big Oil blames its customers of course.
--
[Welfare Queens:]
During this period, the U.S. made an annual average revenue of 136.9
billion U.S. dollars through the production and marketing of fossil fuel
products.
-- statista.com, 29 Apr 2024

In 2022, fossil fuel subsidies in the United States totaled $757 billion,
according to the International Monetary Fund.
-- EESI.org, 30 Jan 2024
[Around 5x revenue from sale of products and a hidden tax of $6900 per
US household per year].
AlleyCat
2024-10-22 04:47:31 UTC
Permalink
On Mon, 21 Oct 2024 22:31:57 +0200 (CEST), Normal Cycles says...
Post by Normal Cycles
At least two people have been killed due to overnight rainfall and
flooding Saturday in Roswell, New Mexico, according to New Mexico State
Police. Nearly 300 people have been rescued by the National Guard, city
officials say.
Yawwwwnnn!

Translation: weather.

Thanks for the weather report, Sparky.

What happened to the permanent drought?

(CNN)
A "bomb cyclone" with hurricane-like strength and a chart-topping...
... "atmospheric river" will coincide Saturday night into Sunday to unleash...
... flooding rains, wet snow, strong winds and coastal surf across the western US...
(wait... what about the permanent drought?)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOSImQoXIAEwFwu?format=jpg&name=medium
Very positive weather/climate story for this Spring 2024 so far --> very little drought ?
Only 3% of the Lower 48 in D2 (Severe Drought) and a minuscule 0.1% in D4 (Exceptional Drought)
California is 99.9% blank. Growing regions look fine.
Or the snow we'll never see again?

Just remember folks, climate change is settled science. The miracle molecule
can cause permanent drought and more intense rainfall, all right at the same
time.

=================================================================================================

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