Discussion:
agw make spanish downpours 12% heavier
(too old to reply)
k***@gmail.com
2024-10-31 22:53:05 UTC
Permalink
Climate change is making extreme downpours in Spain heavier and more likely,
scientists say
The Hill, 31 Oct 2024 19:37Z
Human-caused climate change made Spain's rainfall about 12% heavier and
doubled the likelihood of a storm as intense as this week's deluge of
Valencia,...


Somewhat counter-intuitively, while all not normal weather events
are generally increasing, more extreme weather is growing faster than
just above-average weather.

E.g. see the plots.
<Loading Image...>

Shows precipitation across the Med region at the "10 percentile" level.
I.e. daily raindall that is in the top 10% of rainy days over the past
~220 years.
There has been a steady increase by about 2mm each century.

But the top 5% is faster:
<Loading Image...>
Growing at ~4 mm each century.

And the top 1% is faster again:
<Loading Image...>
Growing around 11 mm each century.

Finally, the largest rainfall event for each year in the region:
<Loading Image...>
These are growing at an incredible 125 mm each century.
Daily rainfall that was only 50mm (i.e. ~2 inches) in 1850 has
become 300mm of rain (~ 1 foot) in a day around now.

And all the above numbers are just the trend line. 1/2 the data you see
on the plot are above the trend. E.g. the biggest rainfall event in the
dataset is over 350mm for 1 day. (These GHCN data define a day
notionally between 9am GMT one day and 9am GMT the next day;
for many places collecting data over other 24 hrs spans can give
totally different records, something well-known to climate trolls :).

--
The term "global warming," which describes an increase in the Earth's
average temperature surface due to greenhouse gas emissions, is widely
believed to have been coined in 1975 by Columbia University geochemist
Wallace Broecker, according to NASA.
[In June 1988 NASA scientist James E. Hansen popularised the term
when he testified to the US Senate].
Meanwhile, "climate change," which describes a long-term change in the Earth'
s climate, appeared a few years later in a 1979 National Academy of Science
study on carbon dioxide.
-- UNEP-REGATTA

23% [about 2x the national average] of US Congress Members Are Climate
Change Deniers - And They're All Republican
Green Queen, 10 Aug 2024
A new report has found that nearly a quarter of elected federal
officials in the US think climate change is a hoax, and all of them
belong to the Republican...

UN rapporteur urges climate activist's release ahead of COP29
Arab News PK, 31 Oct 2024 21:46Z
GENEVA. The UN rapporteur on environmental defenders on Thu urged
Azerbaijan to free Anar Mammadli, saying his detention seemed aimed at
silencing...

[Voted A-OK By Trollbots!]
Army of bots promotes petrostate hosting global climate talks
WaPo, 9m
At least 1800 fake accounts on the social media platform X are praising
Azerbaijan, a major oil and gas producer, according to an analysis shared
with The...

Another major climate conference helps a despotic regime
WaPo/OpEd, 17 Oct 2024 03:13Z
Azerbaijan, the host of the next U.N. climate conference, has a sordid
record of human rights violations.

Good Cop, Bad COP29: Azerbaijan's greenwashing ahead of crucial climate summit
SBS, 31 Aug 2024 23:49Z
More than a year after the arrest of Azeri anti-corruption academic Dr Gubad
Ibadoghlu, human rights organisations are ...

Azerbaijan Holds Snap Parliamentary Elections Amid Controversial History
devdiscourse, 01 Sep 2024 04:49Z
Azerbaijan is conducting a snap parliamentary election, expedited due to the
upcoming COP29 climate talks in Baku. The election, dominated by President
Ilham Aliyev's New Azerbaijan party, follows a ...

World may be merely scratching the surface on the scope of climate-changing
methane...
Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 31 Oct 2024 22:02Z
The amount of the powerful climate-changing gas methane spilling out of oil
and gas equipment, coal mines and landfills globally is nowhere near fully
documented and what is known is "only scratching ...

Russia says $20 decillion [20*10^33] fine against Google is `symbolic'
The Guardian, 31 Oct 2024 20:16Z
[What, not 10^100 (a googol) dollars?].

YouTuber Graham "Dingo" Dinkleman, Known as South Africa's Steve Irwin, Dead
at 44 After Snake Bite
E! NEWS, 31 Oct 2024 14:14Z
[Steve Irwin also dead at 44 after stabbed in chest by stingray barb].

About 8,000 North Korean troops at Ukraine's border are expected in combat
in days, US says
AP, 31 Oct 2024 20:13Z

US Turns to China to Stop North Korean Troops From Fighting for Russia
NYT, 31 Oct 2024 17:12Z

[Contested Election!]
Trump Files First Election Lawsuit in Chilling Sign of What's to Come
The New Republic, 30 Oct 2024

Sydney on track to run out of landfill space by 2030
LiSTNR, 31 Oct 2024 21:23Z
The New South Wales Government has warned Greater Sydney is on the
brink of a waste crisis, set to run out of landfill space by 2030.
[The Minns govt says the prev NSW admin had watched recycling plateau
and done nothing for 10y].

Weather is becoming increasingly extreme: it's evident to everyone
Meteo Giornale, 31 Oct 2024 18:01Z
Italy is facing an unprecedented challenge on the meteorological front,
finding itself at the center of climate changes that heavily influence the...

Fire warning issued for 5 N.J. counties for Fri
NJ.com, 31 Oct 2024 19:40Z
The National Weather Service issued a red flag warning at 3:28 p.m. on
Thu valid for Fri between noon and 7 p.m. for ...

How these once-thriving Texas cities turned into ghost towns because of
extreme weather
San Antonio Express-News, 31 Oct 2024 19:27Z
Most of the more than 500 Texas ghost towns were abandoned because of
economic decline, but these were emptied because of natural disasters.

Geoff was happy in Lismore until 'the big one'. Now he's one of 1000s of
climate relocators each year
ABC News, 31 Oct 2024 19:02Z
For the first time, demographers have calculated how many
Australians move each year because of climate disasters such as
fire, floods and cyclones. They say the figure is likely to be an
underestimate.
Paul Aubrin
2024-11-01 05:17:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by k***@gmail.com
Climate change is making extreme downpours in Spain heavier and more likely,
scientists say
The Hill, 31 Oct 2024 19:37Z
Human-caused climate change made Spain's rainfall about 12% heavier and
doubled the likelihood of a storm as intense as this week's deluge of
Valencia,...
Turia basin floods since the 11th century :

Loading Image...

Source : page 11 (775) ; MARIANO BARRIENDOS & FERNANDO S. RODRIGO (2006)
Study of
historical flood events on Spanish rivers using documentary data,
Hydrological Sciences
Journal, 51:5, 765-783, DOI: 10.1623/hysj.51.5.765

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1623/hysj.51.5.765
N_Cook
2024-11-01 08:55:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by k***@gmail.com
Climate change is making extreme downpours in Spain heavier and more likely,
scientists say
The Hill, 31 Oct 2024 19:37Z
Human-caused climate change made Spain's rainfall about 12% heavier and
doubled the likelihood of a storm as intense as this week's deluge of
Valencia,...
Somewhat counter-intuitively, while all not normal weather events
are generally increasing, more extreme weather is growing faster than
just above-average weather.
E.g. see the plots.
<http://kym.massbus.org/MEDPRECIP/p10prcp.gif>
Shows precipitation across the Med region at the "10 percentile" level.
I.e. daily raindall that is in the top 10% of rainy days over the past
~220 years.
There has been a steady increase by about 2mm each century.
<http://kym.massbus.org/MEDPRECIP/p5prcp.gif>
Growing at ~4 mm each century.
<http://kym.massbus.org/MEDPRECIP/p1prcp.gif>
Growing around 11 mm each century.
<http://kym.massbus.org/MEDPRECIP/maxprcpann.gif>
These are growing at an incredible 125 mm each century.
Daily rainfall that was only 50mm (i.e. ~2 inches) in 1850 has
become 300mm of rain (~ 1 foot) in a day around now.
And all the above numbers are just the trend line. 1/2 the data you see
on the plot are above the trend. E.g. the biggest rainfall event in the
dataset is over 350mm for 1 day. (These GHCN data define a day
notionally between 9am GMT one day and 9am GMT the next day;
for many places collecting data over other 24 hrs spans can give
totally different records, something well-known to climate trolls :).
--
The term "global warming," which describes an increase in the Earth's
average temperature surface due to greenhouse gas emissions, is widely
believed to have been coined in 1975 by Columbia University geochemist
Wallace Broecker, according to NASA.
[In June 1988 NASA scientist James E. Hansen popularised the term
when he testified to the US Senate].
Meanwhile, "climate change," which describes a long-term change in the Earth'
s climate, appeared a few years later in a 1979 National Academy of Science
study on carbon dioxide.
-- UNEP-REGATTA
23% [about 2x the national average] of US Congress Members Are Climate
Change Deniers - And They're All Republican
Green Queen, 10 Aug 2024
A new report has found that nearly a quarter of elected federal
officials in the US think climate change is a hoax, and all of them
belong to the Republican...
Looks like the latest NHC interest, beginning at 40 degree N, is heading
for Spain in the next few days
--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>
Paul Aubrin
2024-11-01 12:21:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by N_Cook
Post by k***@gmail.com
A new report has found that nearly a quarter of elected federal
officials in the US think climate change is a hoax, and all of them
belong to the Republican...
Looks like the latest NHC interest, beginning at 40 degree N, is heading
for Spain in the next few days
La défense de Valence contre les crues du Turia
History Collection Persée ; Jean Sermet ; 1958

It thus appeared that from the reconquista until 1949, Valence was
devastated 28 times.

https://www.persee.fr/doc/rgpso_0035-3221_1958_num_29_3_4702
Paul Aubrin
2024-11-01 12:44:35 UTC
Permalink
Post by N_Cook
Post by k***@gmail.com
A new report has found that nearly a quarter of elected federal
officials in the US think climate change is a hoax, and all of them
belong to the Republican...
Looks like the latest NHC interest, beginning at 40 degree N, is heading
for Spain in the next few days
But it is after the conquest of the city when we begin to find primary
sources, written by direct witnesses of the floods, which describe them
in more or less detail. From 1238 until the last great flood caused by
the double flood of 13 and 14 October 1957, there are documented more
than 50 floods of the Turia in the last eight centuries.

Of the, at least, 50 floods of the Turia, some of them have been
especially virulent and have generated a large number of documents, many
of which are deposited in the Municipal Historical Archive of Valencia,
in the Valencian Library and in the archives of the Cathedral of Valencia.

The first great flood of which there is evidence after the conquest of
the city by King James I, occurred on October 16, 1321. Of this flood is
preserved in the Book of Acts of that year the letter sent by the
Justice, the Jurors and the city's dignitaries to King James II.

TIEMPO Y CLIMA abril 2018 Nº 60
https://www.divulgameteo.es/fotos/meteoroteca/Riadas-catastr%C3%B3ficas-Turia.pdf
Loading...