k***@gmail.com
2024-07-20 00:51:56 UTC
A little job I've just handed over to the client shows some
interesting patterns related to US internal migration. The customer
-- who may or may not be a large insurance company based in the US --
was interested in factors that might predict US domestic movements vis
a vis changing conditions related to AGW.
While the AI programs I've cooked up over the years have data on
literally 1000s of factors most of the big ticket items you might
think should at least tickle the ivories -- number of tornadoes,
storms, weather fatalities, heat-waves, dust storms, etc -- do not
seem to affect anyone's decision to move from state X to state Y.
A couple of the factors seem to relate to the environment -- e.g.
migration numbers for 2023 currently up on the wikipedia page related
to "state by state migration" seem to be predicted by prevalence of
asthma, lymphoma and esophageal and stomach cancer (people seem to be
seeking whether they know it or not states with low rates of the
diseases) but -- maybe contradictorily -- they are tending to move to
states with more nuclear reactors.
On the major factors side are poverty and diversity metrics.
Americans are "seeking" states that have high levels and moving away
from "white" states. It turns out these are much the same states as
those with high levels of robbery and payday lenders.
The states that Americans are moving to are the warmer states --
especially in the month of Nov. They are moving to states further
south and closer to the coast. And states with fewer sightings of
Bigfoot for some reason. (If it was just population density or
remoteness then those variables were in the database, but did not pop
up as being closely related to the immigration numbers).
Americans are moving to states that have higher levels of acceptance
of the reality of AGW ("climate"). This will come in handy when the
tides rise and the summers get boiling hot. Because those are also the
states they are choosing to move to.
It also turns out the states people are moving to have larger ranks on
the "are you happy about your community". Larger ranks on this
variable mean "less happy". Uh, oh!
So Americans are moving to the coast, moving to warmer regions (esp if
warmer in Nov), and places they will find more poor, non-white
people and lower happiness about community services and interaction.
Finally, and not to be overlooked, at the bottom of the list of things
that made the AI twitch is coal usage. Seems some people (R2=5%) are
moving to get away from the smoke-stacks. That may tie in with some
of the diseases they are moving away from.
Suspect R2 Beta stderr(Beta)
povertyavg 0.26137723 1.94249 0.799213
robbery 0.22431734 0.0984184 0.0447932
pctnonwhite 0.20636314 0.365744 0.177524
diversity 0.16738921 0.707824 0.386374
nukereactors 0.16071884 2.00276 1.13275
povertynonwhite 0.15947351 2.20762 1.25441
climate 0.14662848 1.00931 0.595952
coviddailycasespc2021 0.14641124 -0.0154646 0.00913903
maxtemp11 0.13219282 0.657156 0.416735
Lymphomas 0.12883021 -4.56506 2.93814
payday 0.12057414 0.00594772 0.00397564
bigfootpc 0.12019246 -0.183594 0.122941
coastdist 0.11001189 -0.563483 0.396677
radon 0.10360404 -1.40823 1.02522
asthma 0.10167929 -2.63268 1.91523
Oesophagus.can 0.10145926 -4.18986 3.08608
stlat 0.08614923 -0.440015 0.354702
happcommunityenvrank 0.08447360 0.201151 0.163901
Stomach.can 0.06979048 3.23167 2.92014
coalconspc 0.05201455 -0.241627 0.25531
NOTES:
Beta's show how strongly people are moving toward (if +ve) or away
from (if -ve) states with the particular property. The R2 column
shows approx what fraction of the domestic migration (2023) explained
by the "suspect". All relationships are statistically robust according
to 2 different tests at the 90%+ conf levels.
--
Finally, we suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the
warmest year on record. Without inside information, that would be a
dangerous prediction, but we proffer it because it is unlikely that
the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of
an El Nino - like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely
qualified as an El Nino - should be sufficient for record global
temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global
temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is
our estimate of preindustrial temperature.
-- J Hansen et al, newsletter 23 Sep 2022
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diverse, increasingly urbanised, older and less likely to have
children. That's according to new demographic data issued by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics.
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[Pass It On!]
Greedy Utilities Pass Climate Costs on to Customers: Here's How to Stop Them
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In the midst of hot, humid Florida summers, air conditioning is a necessity.
But due to skyrocketing electricity bills, it's out of reach for many.
Bitter potatoes and nutrient-poor lettuce: how climate change is altering
the Mediterranean diet
La Vanguardia, 19 Jul 2024 19:14Z
Climate change is modifying food as we know it. A report from the European
Environmental Policy Institute pointed out a few months ago that traditional...
[Mystery!]
Boeing Desperately Trying to Figure Out Thruster Issue That's Stranded
Astronauts in Space All Summer
Futurism, 19 Jul 2024 15:16Z
[Pasadena Who?]
11 days without power: Pasadena neighbors feel forgotten amid restoration
efforts
KHOU.com, 19 Jul 2024 04:16Z
Earth's Disastrous 10th Tipping Point Has Been Identified
Popular Mechanics, 18 Jul 2024
Now in a new study, scientists are arguing that a 10th boundary could be
added to the list-aquatic deoxygenation. Some bodies of water in the world
(such as basins in the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and various fjords) are
naturally anoxic, meaning that they contain little or no oxygen.
Coal-filled trains are likely sending people to the hospital
Ars Technica, 19 Jul 2024 15:13Z
New Study Uncovers Key Error in Climate Models: Earth's Albedo Overestimated
SciTechDaily, 18 Jul 2024 22:12Z
[New Ice Age!]
Atop Mount Washington, weather observers have a front row seat to the most
extreme weather
The Boston Globe, 19 Jul 2024 10:14Z
Find out what goes into forecasting the most intense weather on earth from
the highest point in the northeastern United States.
interesting patterns related to US internal migration. The customer
-- who may or may not be a large insurance company based in the US --
was interested in factors that might predict US domestic movements vis
a vis changing conditions related to AGW.
While the AI programs I've cooked up over the years have data on
literally 1000s of factors most of the big ticket items you might
think should at least tickle the ivories -- number of tornadoes,
storms, weather fatalities, heat-waves, dust storms, etc -- do not
seem to affect anyone's decision to move from state X to state Y.
A couple of the factors seem to relate to the environment -- e.g.
migration numbers for 2023 currently up on the wikipedia page related
to "state by state migration" seem to be predicted by prevalence of
asthma, lymphoma and esophageal and stomach cancer (people seem to be
seeking whether they know it or not states with low rates of the
diseases) but -- maybe contradictorily -- they are tending to move to
states with more nuclear reactors.
On the major factors side are poverty and diversity metrics.
Americans are "seeking" states that have high levels and moving away
from "white" states. It turns out these are much the same states as
those with high levels of robbery and payday lenders.
The states that Americans are moving to are the warmer states --
especially in the month of Nov. They are moving to states further
south and closer to the coast. And states with fewer sightings of
Bigfoot for some reason. (If it was just population density or
remoteness then those variables were in the database, but did not pop
up as being closely related to the immigration numbers).
Americans are moving to states that have higher levels of acceptance
of the reality of AGW ("climate"). This will come in handy when the
tides rise and the summers get boiling hot. Because those are also the
states they are choosing to move to.
It also turns out the states people are moving to have larger ranks on
the "are you happy about your community". Larger ranks on this
variable mean "less happy". Uh, oh!
So Americans are moving to the coast, moving to warmer regions (esp if
warmer in Nov), and places they will find more poor, non-white
people and lower happiness about community services and interaction.
Finally, and not to be overlooked, at the bottom of the list of things
that made the AI twitch is coal usage. Seems some people (R2=5%) are
moving to get away from the smoke-stacks. That may tie in with some
of the diseases they are moving away from.
Suspect R2 Beta stderr(Beta)
povertyavg 0.26137723 1.94249 0.799213
robbery 0.22431734 0.0984184 0.0447932
pctnonwhite 0.20636314 0.365744 0.177524
diversity 0.16738921 0.707824 0.386374
nukereactors 0.16071884 2.00276 1.13275
povertynonwhite 0.15947351 2.20762 1.25441
climate 0.14662848 1.00931 0.595952
coviddailycasespc2021 0.14641124 -0.0154646 0.00913903
maxtemp11 0.13219282 0.657156 0.416735
Lymphomas 0.12883021 -4.56506 2.93814
payday 0.12057414 0.00594772 0.00397564
bigfootpc 0.12019246 -0.183594 0.122941
coastdist 0.11001189 -0.563483 0.396677
radon 0.10360404 -1.40823 1.02522
asthma 0.10167929 -2.63268 1.91523
Oesophagus.can 0.10145926 -4.18986 3.08608
stlat 0.08614923 -0.440015 0.354702
happcommunityenvrank 0.08447360 0.201151 0.163901
Stomach.can 0.06979048 3.23167 2.92014
coalconspc 0.05201455 -0.241627 0.25531
NOTES:
Beta's show how strongly people are moving toward (if +ve) or away
from (if -ve) states with the particular property. The R2 column
shows approx what fraction of the domestic migration (2023) explained
by the "suspect". All relationships are statistically robust according
to 2 different tests at the 90%+ conf levels.
--
Finally, we suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the
warmest year on record. Without inside information, that would be a
dangerous prediction, but we proffer it because it is unlikely that
the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of
an El Nino - like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely
qualified as an El Nino - should be sufficient for record global
temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global
temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is
our estimate of preindustrial temperature.
-- J Hansen et al, newsletter 23 Sep 2022
Extreme heat response extended in Edmonton as smoke moves in
CTV News, 19 Jul 2024 21:07Z
The City of Edmonton extended its extreme heat response Fri, with
temperatures into the 30s expected to last over the ...
Europe Set to Break Tourism Revenue Record with ?800 Billion in 2024
Big News Network.com, 19 Jul 2024 21:20Z
Europe is set to receive a record 800 bn euros from tourism this year
with high summer temperatures steep prices for luxury hotels and ...
Twelve charts that show how Australia's population changed over 120 years
ABC News, 19 Jul 2024 20:20Z
Over the last 120 years, Australia's population has become more
diverse, increasingly urbanised, older and less likely to have
children. That's according to new demographic data issued by the
Australian Bureau of Statistics.
`Florida is a Nightmare': Property Owners in Sunshine State Express Pain
Over `Out of Control' Insurance Premiums
Savvy Dime on MSN, 19 Jul 2024 18:07Z
The govt in Florida has recently been trying to clamp down on
out-of-control insurance premiums that many homeowners in ...
[Pass It On!]
Greedy Utilities Pass Climate Costs on to Customers: Here's How to Stop Them
Head Topics, 19 Jul 2024 12:13Z
In the midst of hot, humid Florida summers, air conditioning is a necessity.
But due to skyrocketing electricity bills, it's out of reach for many.
Bitter potatoes and nutrient-poor lettuce: how climate change is altering
the Mediterranean diet
La Vanguardia, 19 Jul 2024 19:14Z
Climate change is modifying food as we know it. A report from the European
Environmental Policy Institute pointed out a few months ago that traditional...
[Mystery!]
Boeing Desperately Trying to Figure Out Thruster Issue That's Stranded
Astronauts in Space All Summer
Futurism, 19 Jul 2024 15:16Z
[Pasadena Who?]
11 days without power: Pasadena neighbors feel forgotten amid restoration
efforts
KHOU.com, 19 Jul 2024 04:16Z
Earth's Disastrous 10th Tipping Point Has Been Identified
Popular Mechanics, 18 Jul 2024
Now in a new study, scientists are arguing that a 10th boundary could be
added to the list-aquatic deoxygenation. Some bodies of water in the world
(such as basins in the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, and various fjords) are
naturally anoxic, meaning that they contain little or no oxygen.
Coal-filled trains are likely sending people to the hospital
Ars Technica, 19 Jul 2024 15:13Z
New Study Uncovers Key Error in Climate Models: Earth's Albedo Overestimated
SciTechDaily, 18 Jul 2024 22:12Z
[New Ice Age!]
Atop Mount Washington, weather observers have a front row seat to the most
extreme weather
The Boston Globe, 19 Jul 2024 10:14Z
Find out what goes into forecasting the most intense weather on earth from
the highest point in the northeastern United States.