aug 2024: 73% of data series mark extreme climate

[k***@gmail.com]

With only the JMA and poor old Hadley left to report their latest data
we'll run our monthly call of the board now.

70% of the 102 datasets we regularly monitor here on AGW show the

last 12 m were either at their record max or record min, depending on
whether we're talking about the earth's surface near sea level or the
upper atm where cooling is happening because the heat is being trapped
lower down.

At the top of the leaderboard in raw temp anomalies is the NOAA's
Arctic Land data series showing 60N-90N is more than 2.6C above temps
of just 40y ago and headed higher fast. As the old Exxon climate
studies showed, the poles are warming 2x faster than the earth,
overall with land warming faster then the oceans by about the same
factor.

Latest research shows the fossil companies knew the details as early
as the 1960s.

The summary of the situation we find ourselves in now, 50y later, is
as follows:

Data series Rank Value #m firstm lastm
aravgArcland 1 2.6801 12 202309 202408
aravgNHland 1 2.0343 12 202309 202408
nhtsdsst 1 1.701 12 202309 202408
hadcrut5nh 1 1.6186 11 202309 202407
aravgNTemp 1 1.5863 12 202309 202408
aravgNH 1 1.4760 12 202309 202408
berkglobair 1 1.3493 11 202309 202407
glbtsdsst 1 1.325 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6TrpcsLand 1 1.2775 12 202309 202408
hadcrut5 1 1.2236 11 202309 202407
berkglobwater 1 1.2116 11 202309 202407
uah_globe6NHLand 1 1.1708 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6NoExtLand 1 1.1675 12 202309 202408
hadsst4_nh 1 1.1672 10 202309 202406
uah_globe6GlobeLand 1 1.1317 12 202309 202408
uah_mtTrpcsLand 1 1.1133 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6Trpcs 1 1.1125 12 202309 202408
hadsst4_trop 1 1.0818 10 202309 202406
uah_globe6TrpcsOcean 1 1.0667 12 202309 202408
aravgSHland 1 1.0561 12 202309 202408
aravgNHocean 1 1.0540 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6SHLand 1 1.0392 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6NH 1 1.0175 12 202309 202408
aravg 1 1.0157 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNHLand 1 1.0125 12 202309 202408
uah_mtTrpcs 1 1.0058 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNoExtLand 1 1.0000 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6NoExt 1 0.9825 12 202309 202408
uah_mtTrpcsOcean 1 0.9733 12 202309 202408
hadsst4 1 0.9684 10 202309 202406
uah_mtGlobeLand 1 0.9558 12 202309 202408
shtsdsst 1 0.954 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNH 1 0.9258 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6NHOcean 1 0.9183 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6 1 0.9017 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNoExt 1 0.8933 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6NoPolLand 1 0.8875 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNHOcean 1 0.8692 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNoPolLand 1 0.8675 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6AUST 1 0.8533 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNoPol 1 0.8292 12 202309 202408
hadcrut5sh 1 0.8285 11 202309 202407
uah_mtSHLand 1 0.8242 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6NoExtOcean 1 0.8167 12 202309 202408
uah_mt 1 0.8142 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6GlobeOcean 1 0.8117 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6NoPol 1 0.8025 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNoExtOcean 1 0.7967 12 202309 202408
uah_mtAUST 1 0.7875 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6SH 1 0.7867 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6SoExtLand 1 0.7850 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6USA48 1 0.7833 12 202309 202408
uah_mtNoPolOcean 1 0.7825 12 202309 202408
hadsst4_sh 1 0.7802 10 202309 202406
uah_mtUSA48 1 0.7600 12 202309 202408
uah_mtGlobeOcean 1 0.7575 12 202309 202408
uah_mtUSA49 1 0.7550 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6SHOcean 1 0.7358 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6USA49 1 0.7333 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6NoPolOcean 1 0.7033 12 202309 202408
uah_mtSH 1 0.7025 12 202309 202408
uah_mtSHOcean 1 0.6758 12 202309 202408
jma 1 0.6618 11 202309 202407
uah_globe6SoExt 1 0.6025 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6SoExtOcean 1 0.5683 12 202309 202408
aravgSH 1 0.5555 12 202309 202408
uah_mtSoExt 1 0.5342 12 202309 202408
uah_mtSoExtOcean 1 0.5292 12 202309 202408
aravgSHocean 1 0.4386 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSHLand 1 -0.6642 12 202309 202408
uah_lsTrpcsLand 1 -0.6942 12 202309 202408
uah_lsTrpcs 1 -0.7033 12 202309 202408
uah_lsTrpcsOcean 1 -0.7058 12 202309 202408
aravgArc 2 2.5179 12 202309 202408
uah_mtSoExtLand 2 0.5592 12 202309 202408
aravgSTemp 2 0.3342 12 202309 202408
seaice.extent 3 10.3996 24 202309 202408
uah_globe6SoPolOcean 3 0.3975 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6SoPol 3 0.3575 12 202309 202408
snowcover.area 4 24.0115 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSH 5 -0.3250 12 202309 202408
uah_lsAUST 6 -0.2692 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSHOcean 7 -0.2533 12 202309 202408
uah_mtSoPolOcean 8 0.2283 12 202309 202408
uah_lsGlobeOcean 8 -0.1908 12 202309 202408
piomas.vol 9 13.8834 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSoExtLand 9 -0.5792 12 202309 202408
aravgArcocean 10 1.0776 12 202309 202408
uah_ls 11 -0.1767 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSoPolLand 11 -0.9433 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSoPol 13 -0.4842 12 202309 202408
aravgAntarcland 14 0.4567 12 202309 202408
uah_globe6SoPolLand 14 0.2742 12 202309 202408
uah_mtSoPol 14 0.1358 12 202309 202408
uah_lsGlobeLand 14 -0.1450 12 202309 202408
aravgAntarc 15 0.0640 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSoExt 15 -0.1000 12 202309 202408
uah_lsNHOcean 15 -0.1092 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSoPolOcean 16 -0.2692 12 202309 202408
uah_lsSoExtOcean 19 -0.0117 12 202309 202408
uah_lsNH 19 -0.0317 12 202309 202408

--
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[Paul Aubrin]

Post by k***@gmail.com
With only the JMA and poor old Hadley left to report their latest data
we'll run our monthly call of the board now.

Climate is a statistic over 30 years or more. A single month is at most
1/360 of climate.

[Unum]

Post by k***@gmail.com
With only the JMA and poor old Hadley left to report their latest data
we'll run our monthly call of the board now.

Climate is a statistic over 30 years or more. A single month is at most 1/360
of climate.

What part of "last 12 m were either at their record max or record min" did
Aubrin not understand?

[R Kym Horsell]

Post by Unum

Post by k***@gmail.com
With only the JMA and poor old Hadley left to report their latest data
we'll run our monthly call of the board now.

Climate is a statistic over 30 years or more. A single month is at most 1/360
of climate.

What part of "last 12 m were either at their record max or record min" did
Aubrin not understand?

/D\unce only knows enough to go Chat GPT to cook up his material.

[Paul Aubrin]

Post by R Kym Horsell
/D\unce only knows enough to go Chat GPT to cook up his material.

I never used chat GPT. Climate is a matter of 30 years or more
statistics not a matter of isolated data points.
Every time you brag about one cherry-picked data point, you err (or you
lie).

[Paul Aubrin]

Post by Unum

Post by Paul Aubrin

Post by k***@gmail.com
With only the JMA and poor old Hadley left to report their latest data
we'll run our monthly call of the board now.

Climate is a statistic over 30 years or more. A single month is at
most 1/360 of climate.

What part of "last 12 m were either at their record max or record min" did
Aubrin not understand?

Do you understand what a statistical distribution versus a single data
point is ?

[Unum]

Post by Unum

Post by Paul Aubrin

Post by k***@gmail.com
With only the JMA and poor old Hadley left to report their latest data
we'll run our monthly call of the board now.

Climate is a statistic over 30 years or more. A single month is at most
1/360 of climate.

What part of "last 12 m were either at their record max or record min" did
Aubrin not understand?

Do you understand what a statistical distribution versus a single data point is ?

A single data point which represents the global temperature for the year
versus "record max or record min"? Yeah what do you think it means, dimwit?

[R Kym Horsell]

Post by Unum

Post by Unum

Post by Paul Aubrin

Post by k***@gmail.com
With only the JMA and poor old Hadley left to report their latest data
we'll run our monthly call of the board now.

Climate is a statistic over 30 years or more. A single month is at most
1/360 of climate.

What part of "last 12 m were either at their record max or record min" did
Aubrin not understand?

Do you understand what a statistical distribution versus a single data point is ?

A single data point which represents the global temperature for the year
versus "record max or record min"? Yeah what do you think it means, dimwit?

/D\urbin is complaining he can't figure out what a maximum is.
To most 6yos it would be the largest of a set of numbers.
You can't tell the largest without considering all the numbers.
So -- funny thing -- the maximum summarizes in some way all the numbers in
the dataset.
The stats heads call it part of "order statistics" a study far beyond
anything /A\ has come across in his professional life as some kind
of science fraud and computer security expert.

[Paul Aubrin]

Post by R Kym Horsell

Post by Unum

o you understand what a statistical distribution versus a single data point is ?

A single data point which represents the global temperature for the year
versus "record max or record min"? Yeah what do you think it means, dimwit?

/D\urbin is complaining he can't figure out what a maximum is.

I can very well figure what the maximum is. But a maximum is NOT a 30
years (or more) statistic.
By the way, dioxide concentrations variations empirically follow ocean
"global" temperatures by 6 or 7 months.
It reminds me of the lessons of physics on Henry's law. Temperatures
variations could very well be a cause of atmospheric carbon dioxide
variations. This would be consistent with the observed 13C/12C ratio
evolution.

https://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3sh/derivative/mean:12/mean:14/from:1958/normalise/plot/esrl-co2/derivative/mean:12/mean:14/scale:20/detrend:3/from:1958/normalise

At first glance, temperature variations precede carbon dioxide variations.
With a 6 or 7 months lag, the correlation is quite high (R²=0,47) :

Loading Image...

[Paul Aubrin]

Post by Unum

Do you understand what a statistical distribution versus a single data point is ?

A single data point which represents the global temperature for the year
versus "record max or record min"? Yeah what do you think it means, dimwit?

Climate is a statistical distribution of data points over a 30 years or
more period. Take, for example, a WMO station with 100 years of weather
data, last year is 1% of all the distribution. It does not fit the
definition of climate, not at all.
Extreme weather cannot be used to characterize climate (as defined by
the IPCC).