k***@gmail.com
2024-08-11 05:30:49 UTC
Just got off the sat databases and did some calculations related to
the supposed imminent bust-up of both polar votexes. The huge winds
running around the polar regions at both ends of the planet are what
has stopped the heat from the tropics making its way to the polar
regions. Up until now, anyway.
If AGW has heated up the atm enough to disrupt these patterns -- as
indicated by the reversal of the vortex direction a couple times
recently -- the heat gets in and the region heats up even faster than
just being irradiated by upwelling IR from the surface getting
reflected back down by that "mirror in the sky".
So we can calculate how much heat is being retained by each polar
region as a% of the total zeta watts coming in from the sun
each and every day for the last 4 bn years.
The numbers look like this:
Date %heat in arc %heat in ant
(relative to 1980s normal)
01apr2024 1.89064 0.710435
02apr2024 1.91378 0.544863
03apr2024 1.91107 0.736736
04apr2024 2.02614 0.727902
05apr2024 2.28736 -0.0920991
06apr2024 1.84443 -0.0165035
07apr2024 2.03035 0.274361
08apr2024 2.16836 0.159327
09apr2024 2.14823 0.0570605
10apr2024 2.10446 -0.168061
11apr2024 2.09787 0.0609245
13apr2024 2.22474 -0.737248
14apr2024 2.48228 -0.519636
15apr2024 2.34282 -0.509299
16apr2024 1.68971 0.165909
17apr2024 1.35626 0.774679
18apr2024 1.11646 1.0663
19apr2024 1.00725 1.32886
20apr2024 0.600535 1.03731
21apr2024 0.759417 0.747285
22apr2024 0.474157 0.628974
23apr2024 0.230457 0.288674
24apr2024 0.0372096 0.374274
25apr2024 0.0236685 0.331782
27apr2024 0.292184 0.612471
28apr2024 0.480234 0.422132
29apr2024 0.498464 0.361595
30apr2024 0.409666 0.295699
01may2024 0.620726 0.389682
02may2024 0.698725 0.305976
04may2024 0.498299 0.427689
05may2024 0.568868 0.636228
06may2024 0.435218 0.677666
07may2024 0.643881 0.801184
08may2024 0.449415 0.838835
09may2024 0.228521 0.835029
10may2024 -0.0850578 0.699987
11may2024 -0.315085 0.925721
12may2024 -0.11699 0.755339
13may2024 0.284421 0.343015
14may2024 0.494444 0.727209
15may2024 0.476782 1.00653
16may2024 0.334885 1.63533
17may2024 0.068131 1.75355
18may2024 -0.213043 1.75848
19may2024 -1.17488 1.65845
20may2024 -1.54746 1.74621
21may2024 -1.66332 1.66046
22may2024 -1.69303 1.76958
23may2024 -2.23594 1.63165
24may2024 -2.38618 1.37826
25may2024 -2.37142 1.46412
26may2024 -2.34706 1.58355
27may2024 -2.10525 1.69808
28may2024 -1.79674 2.00961
29may2024 -1.5409 1.91561
30may2024 -1.66625 1.9102
31may2024 -1.94285 1.81353
01jun2024 -1.5368 1.83453
02jun2024 -1.39555 1.57085
03jun2024 -1.65248 1.66061
04jun2024 -1.642 1.73507
05jun2024 -1.90618 1.50752
06jun2024 -1.88593 1.6898
07jun2024 -1.87189 1.71016
08jun2024 -1.88057 1.59263
09jun2024 -1.76972 1.68529
10jun2024 -1.91653 1.61726
11jun2024 -1.9189 1.49506
12jun2024 -1.64257 1.34337
13jun2024 -1.39987 1.33052
14jun2024 -1.18283 1.43046
15jun2024 -1.04638 1.48235
16jun2024 -0.81599 1.68343
17jun2024 -0.731845 1.64303
18jun2024 -1.01386 1.80374
19jun2024 -1.1451 2.04536
20jun2024 -1.39161 2.21154
22jun2024 -2.00036 2.44085
23jun2024 -1.51858 1.52436
24jun2024 -1.00458 1.64766
25jun2024 -0.773491 1.45672
26jun2024 -1.08658 1.23214
28jun2024 -1.22812 1.39783
29jun2024 -1.43668 1.34821
30jun2024 -1.25639 1.00958
01jul2024 -1.06553 0.820417
02jul2024 -0.635201 0.980999
03jul2024 -0.422029 1.0746
04jul2024 -0.462186 1.14081
05jul2024 -0.12464 1.03181
06jul2024 -0.0424025 0.978899
07jul2024 0.409821 0.927567
08jul2024 0.837701 0.944064
09jul2024 1.42377 0.880922
10jul2024 1.48073 0.749927
11jul2024 1.59537 0.777822
12jul2024 1.50577 0.988189
13jul2024 1.46552 1.00358
14jul2024 1.51458 0.866955
15jul2024 2.01903 1.16958
16jul2024 2.92273 1.00157
17jul2024 3.86181 0.850728
18jul2024 4.32085 0.8313
19jul2024 4.73683 0.636411
20jul2024 4.90133 0.607081
21jul2024 5.71525 0.82542
22jul2024 6.76637 0.804754
23jul2024 7.46581 0.818059
24jul2024 8.02487 0.825247
25jul2024 8.35207 0.887564
26jul2024 8.77472 1.09656
27jul2024 9.15525 1.02124
28jul2024 9.76466 0.881013
29jul2024 9.69797 0.803471
30jul2024 10.1842 0.871945
31jul2024 9.92865 0.722791
01aug2024 10.0565 0.745285
02aug2024 9.9628 0.721778
03aug2024 10.0214 0.773371
04aug2024 10.1958 0.732217
05aug2024 10.198 0.774632
06aug2024 10.5002 0.801088
07aug2024 11.2156 0.794485
08aug2024 11.6528 0.974221
09aug2024 11.9897 1.13596
10aug2024 12.0361 1.17877
So it looks like the troubles with the vortex in the NH (+10% more heat)
are quite a lot worse than for the SH (+1% more heat).
--
[Trumped!]
Trump's 270-Page Dossier of JD Vance's `Vulnerabilities' Hacked by Iran
The Daily Beast, 11 Aug 2024 02:55Z
Kamala Harris Now Leads Donald Trump in Six Different Polling Averages
Newsweek, 10 Aug 2024 21:56Z
[Polar Bifurcation!]
The Antarctic's polar vortex could be about to split in two
New Scientist, 10 Aug 2024
Antarctica's polar vortex could be about to split in 2 for the first time
in more than 20 years after a series of sudden spikes in...
Something's Going On With The Polar Vortex, And It Could Have Consequences
IFLScience, 10 Aug 2024 16:11Z
The southern polar vortex is currently showing rare signs of extreme
instability, leading to fears that it could collapse, bringing both icy...
Polar Vortex collapse now imminent: How will the United States feel the
impact?
Severe Weather Europe, 04 Aug 2024
A new Polar Vortex collapse event will bring colder winter weather across
the United States in the second half of Feb and early March.
Polar vortex is 'spinning backwards' above Arctic after major reversal event
Live Science, 11 May 2024
Earlier this month, a sudden atmospheric warming event caused the Arctic's
polar vortex to reverse its trajectory. The swirling ring of cold...
Debby-triggered flooding traps people in homes and forces rescues in
Pennsylvania
CNN on MSN.com, 10 Aug 2024 23:59Z
Debby's heavy rain, flooding and tornado threats spanned 100s of miles
of the eastern United States Fri as it raced ...
James warns against price gouging amid statewide severe weather
Oneida Dispatch, 10 Aug 2024 16:12Z
NEW YORK. State Attorney General Letitia James issued an alert warning
businesses against price gouging of essential items as severe weather impacts...
Finally, we suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the
warmest year on record. Without inside information, that would be a
dangerous prediction, but we proffer it because it is unlikely that
the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of
an El Nino - like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely
qualified as an El Nino - should be sufficient for record global
temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global
temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is
our estimate of preindustrial temperature.
-- J Hansen et al, newsletter 23 Sep 2022
WHO invites mpox vaccine manufacturers to submit dossiers for emergency
evaluation
WHO, 10 Aug 2024
Africa poised to declare continentwide emergency alarm for mpox outbreak
Science, 08 Aug 2024 21:34Z
Nagasaki marks A-bomb anniversary without US and other envoys after
excluding Israel
The Times of Israel, 10 Aug 2024
'Failing Ohio': Hundreds of 1000s without power in Cuyahoga County, but
officials refuse help from state
News 5 Cleveland WEWS, 10 Aug 2024
The COVID Games -- how the silent virus created a commotion that echoed
around Paris
ABC News, 11 Aug 2024 02:55Z
COVID was not supposed to play a major role in the Olympics anymore --
but Paris 2024 has shown that for the athletes, it's still an issue.
COVID-19 Falls To No. 10 Cause Of Death In US
HuffPost, 09 Aug 2024 09:34Z
About 400 Million People Worldwide Have Had Long Covid, Researchers Say
NYT, 09 Aug 2024 13:36Z
Scientists Get to the Bottom of COVID's Worst Pediatric Complication
UC San Francisco, 07 Aug 2024
Apple Production In Himachal Pradesh May Be Hit Due To Extreme Weather
Conditions
ETV Bharat, 10 Aug 2024 10:13Z
Lack of snow in winter, drought-like condition in summer and incessant
rainfall in monsoon have together hampered cultivation in Himachal Pradesh
this time.
[Plant Food!]
Russia's Sovecon cuts wheat crop forecast amid lower yields
Business Recorder, 10 Aug 2024 23:07Z
MOSCOW. Russian agricultural consultancy Sovecon revised its forecast for
the country's 2024 wheat crop down to 82.9 mn ...
Russia evacuates more than 76,000 people in Kursk region, Zelenskyy vows to
'restore justice'
ABC News, 10 Aug 2024 23:01Z
Russia is fighting intense battles against 1000s of Ukrainian
troops as deep as 20 kilometres inside the Kursk region after Ukraine's
biggest attack on Russian sovereign territory since the start of the war.
the supposed imminent bust-up of both polar votexes. The huge winds
running around the polar regions at both ends of the planet are what
has stopped the heat from the tropics making its way to the polar
regions. Up until now, anyway.
If AGW has heated up the atm enough to disrupt these patterns -- as
indicated by the reversal of the vortex direction a couple times
recently -- the heat gets in and the region heats up even faster than
just being irradiated by upwelling IR from the surface getting
reflected back down by that "mirror in the sky".
So we can calculate how much heat is being retained by each polar
region as a% of the total zeta watts coming in from the sun
each and every day for the last 4 bn years.
The numbers look like this:
Date %heat in arc %heat in ant
(relative to 1980s normal)
01apr2024 1.89064 0.710435
02apr2024 1.91378 0.544863
03apr2024 1.91107 0.736736
04apr2024 2.02614 0.727902
05apr2024 2.28736 -0.0920991
06apr2024 1.84443 -0.0165035
07apr2024 2.03035 0.274361
08apr2024 2.16836 0.159327
09apr2024 2.14823 0.0570605
10apr2024 2.10446 -0.168061
11apr2024 2.09787 0.0609245
13apr2024 2.22474 -0.737248
14apr2024 2.48228 -0.519636
15apr2024 2.34282 -0.509299
16apr2024 1.68971 0.165909
17apr2024 1.35626 0.774679
18apr2024 1.11646 1.0663
19apr2024 1.00725 1.32886
20apr2024 0.600535 1.03731
21apr2024 0.759417 0.747285
22apr2024 0.474157 0.628974
23apr2024 0.230457 0.288674
24apr2024 0.0372096 0.374274
25apr2024 0.0236685 0.331782
27apr2024 0.292184 0.612471
28apr2024 0.480234 0.422132
29apr2024 0.498464 0.361595
30apr2024 0.409666 0.295699
01may2024 0.620726 0.389682
02may2024 0.698725 0.305976
04may2024 0.498299 0.427689
05may2024 0.568868 0.636228
06may2024 0.435218 0.677666
07may2024 0.643881 0.801184
08may2024 0.449415 0.838835
09may2024 0.228521 0.835029
10may2024 -0.0850578 0.699987
11may2024 -0.315085 0.925721
12may2024 -0.11699 0.755339
13may2024 0.284421 0.343015
14may2024 0.494444 0.727209
15may2024 0.476782 1.00653
16may2024 0.334885 1.63533
17may2024 0.068131 1.75355
18may2024 -0.213043 1.75848
19may2024 -1.17488 1.65845
20may2024 -1.54746 1.74621
21may2024 -1.66332 1.66046
22may2024 -1.69303 1.76958
23may2024 -2.23594 1.63165
24may2024 -2.38618 1.37826
25may2024 -2.37142 1.46412
26may2024 -2.34706 1.58355
27may2024 -2.10525 1.69808
28may2024 -1.79674 2.00961
29may2024 -1.5409 1.91561
30may2024 -1.66625 1.9102
31may2024 -1.94285 1.81353
01jun2024 -1.5368 1.83453
02jun2024 -1.39555 1.57085
03jun2024 -1.65248 1.66061
04jun2024 -1.642 1.73507
05jun2024 -1.90618 1.50752
06jun2024 -1.88593 1.6898
07jun2024 -1.87189 1.71016
08jun2024 -1.88057 1.59263
09jun2024 -1.76972 1.68529
10jun2024 -1.91653 1.61726
11jun2024 -1.9189 1.49506
12jun2024 -1.64257 1.34337
13jun2024 -1.39987 1.33052
14jun2024 -1.18283 1.43046
15jun2024 -1.04638 1.48235
16jun2024 -0.81599 1.68343
17jun2024 -0.731845 1.64303
18jun2024 -1.01386 1.80374
19jun2024 -1.1451 2.04536
20jun2024 -1.39161 2.21154
22jun2024 -2.00036 2.44085
23jun2024 -1.51858 1.52436
24jun2024 -1.00458 1.64766
25jun2024 -0.773491 1.45672
26jun2024 -1.08658 1.23214
28jun2024 -1.22812 1.39783
29jun2024 -1.43668 1.34821
30jun2024 -1.25639 1.00958
01jul2024 -1.06553 0.820417
02jul2024 -0.635201 0.980999
03jul2024 -0.422029 1.0746
04jul2024 -0.462186 1.14081
05jul2024 -0.12464 1.03181
06jul2024 -0.0424025 0.978899
07jul2024 0.409821 0.927567
08jul2024 0.837701 0.944064
09jul2024 1.42377 0.880922
10jul2024 1.48073 0.749927
11jul2024 1.59537 0.777822
12jul2024 1.50577 0.988189
13jul2024 1.46552 1.00358
14jul2024 1.51458 0.866955
15jul2024 2.01903 1.16958
16jul2024 2.92273 1.00157
17jul2024 3.86181 0.850728
18jul2024 4.32085 0.8313
19jul2024 4.73683 0.636411
20jul2024 4.90133 0.607081
21jul2024 5.71525 0.82542
22jul2024 6.76637 0.804754
23jul2024 7.46581 0.818059
24jul2024 8.02487 0.825247
25jul2024 8.35207 0.887564
26jul2024 8.77472 1.09656
27jul2024 9.15525 1.02124
28jul2024 9.76466 0.881013
29jul2024 9.69797 0.803471
30jul2024 10.1842 0.871945
31jul2024 9.92865 0.722791
01aug2024 10.0565 0.745285
02aug2024 9.9628 0.721778
03aug2024 10.0214 0.773371
04aug2024 10.1958 0.732217
05aug2024 10.198 0.774632
06aug2024 10.5002 0.801088
07aug2024 11.2156 0.794485
08aug2024 11.6528 0.974221
09aug2024 11.9897 1.13596
10aug2024 12.0361 1.17877
So it looks like the troubles with the vortex in the NH (+10% more heat)
are quite a lot worse than for the SH (+1% more heat).
--
[Trumped!]
Trump's 270-Page Dossier of JD Vance's `Vulnerabilities' Hacked by Iran
The Daily Beast, 11 Aug 2024 02:55Z
Kamala Harris Now Leads Donald Trump in Six Different Polling Averages
Newsweek, 10 Aug 2024 21:56Z
[Polar Bifurcation!]
The Antarctic's polar vortex could be about to split in two
New Scientist, 10 Aug 2024
Antarctica's polar vortex could be about to split in 2 for the first time
in more than 20 years after a series of sudden spikes in...
Something's Going On With The Polar Vortex, And It Could Have Consequences
IFLScience, 10 Aug 2024 16:11Z
The southern polar vortex is currently showing rare signs of extreme
instability, leading to fears that it could collapse, bringing both icy...
Polar Vortex collapse now imminent: How will the United States feel the
impact?
Severe Weather Europe, 04 Aug 2024
A new Polar Vortex collapse event will bring colder winter weather across
the United States in the second half of Feb and early March.
Polar vortex is 'spinning backwards' above Arctic after major reversal event
Live Science, 11 May 2024
Earlier this month, a sudden atmospheric warming event caused the Arctic's
polar vortex to reverse its trajectory. The swirling ring of cold...
Debby-triggered flooding traps people in homes and forces rescues in
Pennsylvania
CNN on MSN.com, 10 Aug 2024 23:59Z
Debby's heavy rain, flooding and tornado threats spanned 100s of miles
of the eastern United States Fri as it raced ...
James warns against price gouging amid statewide severe weather
Oneida Dispatch, 10 Aug 2024 16:12Z
NEW YORK. State Attorney General Letitia James issued an alert warning
businesses against price gouging of essential items as severe weather impacts...
Finally, we suggest that 2024 is likely to be off the chart as the
warmest year on record. Without inside information, that would be a
dangerous prediction, but we proffer it because it is unlikely that
the current La Nina will continue a fourth year. Even a little futz of
an El Nino - like the tropical warming in 2018-19, which barely
qualified as an El Nino - should be sufficient for record global
temperature. A classical, strong El Nino in 2023-24 could push global
temperature to about +1.5°C relative to the 1880-1920 mean, which is
our estimate of preindustrial temperature.
-- J Hansen et al, newsletter 23 Sep 2022
WHO invites mpox vaccine manufacturers to submit dossiers for emergency
evaluation
WHO, 10 Aug 2024
Africa poised to declare continentwide emergency alarm for mpox outbreak
Science, 08 Aug 2024 21:34Z
Nagasaki marks A-bomb anniversary without US and other envoys after
excluding Israel
The Times of Israel, 10 Aug 2024
'Failing Ohio': Hundreds of 1000s without power in Cuyahoga County, but
officials refuse help from state
News 5 Cleveland WEWS, 10 Aug 2024
The COVID Games -- how the silent virus created a commotion that echoed
around Paris
ABC News, 11 Aug 2024 02:55Z
COVID was not supposed to play a major role in the Olympics anymore --
but Paris 2024 has shown that for the athletes, it's still an issue.
COVID-19 Falls To No. 10 Cause Of Death In US
HuffPost, 09 Aug 2024 09:34Z
About 400 Million People Worldwide Have Had Long Covid, Researchers Say
NYT, 09 Aug 2024 13:36Z
Scientists Get to the Bottom of COVID's Worst Pediatric Complication
UC San Francisco, 07 Aug 2024
Apple Production In Himachal Pradesh May Be Hit Due To Extreme Weather
Conditions
ETV Bharat, 10 Aug 2024 10:13Z
Lack of snow in winter, drought-like condition in summer and incessant
rainfall in monsoon have together hampered cultivation in Himachal Pradesh
this time.
[Plant Food!]
Russia's Sovecon cuts wheat crop forecast amid lower yields
Business Recorder, 10 Aug 2024 23:07Z
MOSCOW. Russian agricultural consultancy Sovecon revised its forecast for
the country's 2024 wheat crop down to 82.9 mn ...
Russia evacuates more than 76,000 people in Kursk region, Zelenskyy vows to
'restore justice'
ABC News, 10 Aug 2024 23:01Z
Russia is fighting intense battles against 1000s of Ukrainian
troops as deep as 20 kilometres inside the Kursk region after Ukraine's
biggest attack on Russian sovereign territory since the start of the war.