Discussion:
The Gulf Stream is on the verge of COLLAPSING, leading climate change scientists warn - plunging the UK into a new ice age
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Oh, hand-wringing.
2024-10-24 02:01:22 UTC
Permalink
The network of ocean currents which keep the Earth's climate stable could
be about to collapse, scientists have warned.

In an open letter, 44 of the world's leading climate scientists say that
key Atlantic Ocean currents - including the Gulf Stream - are on the brink
of failure.

The scientists caution that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could lead to 'devastating and irreversible
impacts' which will affect 'the entire world for centuries to come'.

The resulting climate fallout could plunge the UK into a 'new Ice Age',
with winter temperatures plummetting up to 15°C (27°F) below the current
average.

While the collapse of the Gulf Stream would be disastrous for Britain,
that vital current is just one small part of AMOC's massive global system.

This giant ocean conveyor belt is critical for moving heat around the
planet, but research suggests that it has been slowing down and could soon
reach a tipping point.

Without urgent action, the scientists warn that AMOC could fail completely
within the next few decades.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13991003/Gulf-Stream-
COLLAPSE-soon-scientists.html
R Kym Horsell
2024-10-24 06:35:42 UTC
Permalink
Post by Oh, hand-wringing.
The network of ocean currents which keep the Earth's climate stable could
be about to collapse, scientists have warned.
...

For the past 50y many of us have been watching the NE of Europe
(aka E Russia) slowly freezing as the Atlantic conveyer shuts down.

In the 1990s I wrote a little paper about a spot nr Iceland that
seemed to be getting colder instead of warmer.
It was an area nr the main flow of the Gulf Stream.

But with modern data we can look at Europe between Finland and Moscow
and watch the temperature trends switch from warming to cooling and
continue to accelerate downward.

They used to have good scientists in Russia. They even used to listen to
them. But that was a long time ago.

Over the past 50y or so it seems the Queen or King or whatever
they have there now has squandered 40% of the national income supporting
the slowly failing fossil industry that is due to run out of
things to burn by 2050/2060.
Looks like the whole region will turn into a one giant permanent iceblock
before that.

GHCN data
Avg temps land N and E of Moscow
(3,300 weather stations):

Year "Warming" Linear model
trend
(deg C/y/y)
2000.000000 0.0149968 0.106235*
2001.000000 0.0233726 0.0831161
2002.000000 0.0125129 0.0599968
2003.000000 -0.0142097 0.0368775
2004.000000 -0.012303 0.0137583
2005.000000 0.0137646 -0.00936097
2006.000000 -0.00706252 -0.0324802
2007.000000 0.0178361 -0.0555995
2008.000000 0.0306116 -0.0787187*
2009.000000 0.0159156 -0.101838*
2010.000000 -0.0685108 -0.124957
2011.000000 -0.0740076 -0.148077
2012.000000 -0.0808852 -0.171196*
2013.000000 -0.186869 -0.194315
2014.000000 -0.271067 -0.217434
2015.000000 -0.200257 -0.240554
2016.000000 -0.448476 -0.263673**
2017.000000 -0.390373 -0.286792*

y = -2.311926e-02*x + 4.634475e+01
Pr(beta<0) = 99%

I.e. each year the region is cooling faster at the
rate of .023 deg/y/y.

Who says there ain no justis?
--
Some people think "Arctic ice" has a significant mass.
But it only comes in at 1.5 trillion tonnes.
Even the CO2 in the atm weight 4 tr tonnes.
10 cm of SLR over the whole ocean is the equivalent of adding 36 tr t of water.
(Until recently, SLR was mostly just thermal expansion -- i.e. 36 tr
tonnes of water lifted a couple cm each year).
The atm in toto is around 5500 tr tonnes.
But that is nothing compared with the mass of the oceans.
OTOH, if all the Arctic sea-ice melted it would amount to only a
"theoretical" sea level increase less than 2 cm. Maybe 4-5-6 years worth
of SLR these days.
Of course since we are talking about ice in water melting that old Greek
displacement rule says the sea level wouldn't rise significantly.
(In grade 6 you are supposed to see an ice cube melt in a glass and
note the level of the water did not change -- Archimedes 250 BCE!).
So people making these kinds of remarks probably are not very science
literate let alone numerate.
Fortunately, I don't inhabit social media at all so I've never run across
an examples of the species.
Citizen Winston Smith
2024-10-30 18:33:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by R Kym Horsell
Looks like the whole region will turn into a one giant permanent iceblock
before that.
https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/planets/neptune/new-study-finds-unexpected-temperature-changes-on-neptune/

The average global temperature on Neptune unexpectedly fluctuated during
a recent 17-year period, according to a new study published by the
American Astronomical Society in The Planetary Science Journal.

Researchers, including scientists from NASA, analyzed ground-based
images of Neptune taken in the mid-infrared range between 2003 and 2020.
The images reveal Neptune’s stratosphere appears to have cooled between
2003 and 2009, followed by a dramatic warming of the south pole between
2018 and 2020. Conversely, upper-tropospheric temperatures didn’t vary
much except for the south pole, which appeared warmest between 2003 and
2006.

Scientists had expected seasons would change slowly on Neptune because
it takes the planet so long to orbit the Sun – 165 years.

https://science.nasa.gov/missions/hubble/hubble-finds-saturns-rings-heating-its-atmosphere/

The discovery: Saturn's vast ring system is heating the giant planet's
upper atmosphere. The phenomenon has never before been seen in the solar
system. It's an unexpected interaction between Saturn and its rings that
potentially could provide a tool for predicting if planets around other
stars have glorious Saturn-like ring systems, too.

The telltale evidence is an excess of ultraviolet radiation, seen as a
spectral line of hot hydrogen in Saturn's atmosphere. The bump in
radiation means that something is contaminating and heating the upper
atmosphere from the outside.

https://www.europlanet-society.org/planetary-scale-heat-wave-discovered-in-jupiters-atmosphere/

An unexpected ‘heat wave’ of 700 degrees Celsius, extending 130,000
kilometres (10 Earth diameters) in Jupiter’s atmosphere, has been
discovered. James O’Donoghue, of the Japanese Aerospace Exploration
Agency (JAXA), has presented the results this week at the Europlanet
Science Congress (EPSC) 2022 in Granada.

Jupiter’s atmosphere, famous for its characteristic multicoloured
vortices, is also unexpectedly hot: in fact, it is hundreds of degrees
hotter than models predict. Due to its orbital distance millions of
kilometres from the Sun, the giant planet receives under 4% of the
amount of sunlight compared to Earth, and its upper atmosphere should
theoretically be a frigid -70 degrees Celsius. Instead, its cloud tops
are measured everywhere at over 400 degrees Celsius.

Looking more deeply through their data, Dr O’Donoghue and his team
discovered the spectacular ‘heat wave’ just below the northern aurora,
and found that it was travelling towards the equator at a speed of
thousands of kilometres per hour.

The heat wave was probably triggered by a pulse of enhanced solar wind
plasma impacting Jupiter’s magnetic field, which boosted auroral heating
and forced hot gases to expand and spill out towards the equator.

https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases-all?ID=0DF9B3CD-802A-23AD-4984-5AC0C6D42605

According to National Geographic: "Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the
St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the
Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being
caused by changes in the sun.

‘The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and
Mars,’ Abdussamatov said."

This scientific research regarding Mars and the Sun, follows another new
study about the impact of cosmic rays on the Earth’s climate. A release
from the Danish National Space Center details the latest research from
scientists from Denmark, Canada and Israel.

"Nir Shaviv of the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, together with Ján
Veizer of the Ruhr University and the University of Ottawa, link
[Earth’s temperature] changes to the journey of the Sun and the Earth
through the Milky Way Galaxy," the release stated.

The leader of Sun-climate research at the Danish National Space Center,
Henrik Svensmark said, "The past 10 years have seen the reconnaissance
of a new area of research by a small number of investigators.'"

https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/planets/mars/mars-may-be-emerging-from-an-ice-age/

NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey missions have provided
evidence of a relatively recent ice age on Mars. In contrast to Earth's
ice ages, a Martian ice age waxes when the poles warm, and water vapor
is transported toward lower latitudes. Martian ice ages wane when the
poles cool and lock water into polar icecaps.

The "pacemakers" of ice ages on Mars appear to be much more extreme than
the comparable drivers of climate change on Earth. Variations in the
planet's orbit and tilt produce remarkable changes in the distribution
of water ice from Polar Regions down to latitudes equivalent to Houston
or Egypt. Researchers, using NASA spacecraft data and analogies to
Earth's Antarctic Dry Valleys, report their findings in Thursday's
edition of the journal Nature.

"Of all the solar system planets, Mars has the climate most like that of
Earth. Both are sensitive to small changes in orbital parameters," said
planetary scientist Dr. James Head of Brown University, Providence,
R.I., lead author of the study. "Now we're seeing that Mars, like Earth,
is in a period between ice ages," he said.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0019103523004670

Mars will continue to warm as the Sun heats up throughout its lifetime.

Mars will reach the melting temperature of water ice, and both CO2 and
H2O will be mobilized at the surface.

Mars could end up with a climate conducive to supporting life.

Results show the importance of processes intrinsic to a planet in
determining the climate and habitability of an exoplanet.

As the solar luminosity continues to increase over the next 6 billion
years, the Martian surface will heat up to above the melting temperature
of water ice.

N_Cook
2024-10-24 08:25:44 UTC
Permalink
Post by Oh, hand-wringing.
The network of ocean currents which keep the Earth's climate stable could
be about to collapse, scientists have warned.
In an open letter, 44 of the world's leading climate scientists say that
key Atlantic Ocean currents - including the Gulf Stream - are on the brink
of failure.
The scientists caution that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could lead to 'devastating and irreversible
impacts' which will affect 'the entire world for centuries to come'.
The resulting climate fallout could plunge the UK into a 'new Ice Age',
with winter temperatures plummetting up to 15°C (27°F) below the current
average.
While the collapse of the Gulf Stream would be disastrous for Britain,
that vital current is just one small part of AMOC's massive global system.
This giant ocean conveyor belt is critical for moving heat around the
planet, but research suggests that it has been slowing down and could soon
reach a tipping point.
Without urgent action, the scientists warn that AMOC could fail completely
within the next few decades.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-13991003/Gulf-Stream-
COLLAPSE-soon-scientists.html
Probably related to that, an anomalous increase in mean sea level around
the UK. Probably due to freshening of the sea water via the Baltic and
Greenland.
The reason for this was to be explained by the lead researcher at the
Proudman Labs, Liverpool in the latest 2023/2024 State of the UK climate
by the UK Met Office, but nothing emerged.

Worse than that a cover up by the supposed pre-eminent UK NTSLF
Go to

https://ntslf.org/storm-surges/surge-model/monthly-surge-plots

and select the month report for August 2024, any port.
On the 29 Aug 2024 at 6am GMT there was a "glitch" a vertical transition
, explained nowhere in the text.
They found it so embarassing that the RMS error between surge prediction
and actuality was getting so large, approx 6 inches, they decided to
remove the latest error for each ports reporting onwards to the present.
ie an official cover-up.
So about 0.16m for Nwelyn and 0.13m anomaly for Portsmouth as examples.
Perghaps they hope its temporary and will go down again but the recent,
last 3 days, "1.3" plots for Newlyn show increasing divergence of
theblue and red lines this month
--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
<http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm>
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